MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (NYSE:MSM) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Obviously, there’s a timing element on how quickly things come online. But Kris will take you through the math. The one other thing I’ll say, Tommy, just a little color on March because obviously, the March number thus far is not a great data point. But a couple of things. One is, obviously, there’s still just a reminder that we have through next week. So we’re giving you an estimate with still a pretty good ways to go in the month. The color that I give on March is a couple of things. One is it started out slower than it’s been in the last part of the month. Obviously, again, we still have another week, but it started out slower and did pick up some momentum would be one. Two was interestingly, what we saw in March was actually a bit of an improvement in our core customer base performance.

And where we saw the step-down was national accounts and public sector, I would say those are the two areas where our confidence is greatest, given performance and given our ability to sort of clearly size market share and what’s going on. So we don’t — we’re not concerned about either of those areas, but they did come down in March, whereas the core got a little bit better. So that is a little — yes, obviously, it’s early but a little sign of life there. I think I’m going to turn it over to Kristen who can do the math for you on the walk.

Kristen Actis-Grande: Sure. Yes. Thanks, Erik. So Tommy, the way that I would think about the 10%, to your point on the second half, I’ll walk you through some of the big buckets and then elaborate a little bit on the growth side. So seasonality, we typically do have a stronger second half. I think last time we talked, we sized that at about 4 to 6 points of inflection. Based on what we’re seeing in March, we certainly think that’s going to be on the lower end. So apply about a 4-point assumption there. On the macro side, what we’re thinking about there, we touched a little bit on this with Dave’s earlier question on the IP indices. But what we’re looking at there is a 1-to 2-point improvement. On pricing, we do get a small benefit on price in the second half.

Again, that’s tied to the increase that we took in early 2Q. That’s about a point, so the balance becomes the growth initiative, which would be 3 points, and I’m going to put those in kind of 3 buckets for you. The first is around solutions, which is about half of that 3 points. So if you look at our signings that we’ve had in FY ’23 and FY ’24, and we look at the maturity that is yet to come on those accounts, that would have contributed roughly $20 million more in Q2 if they were fully ramped up. So when we think of kind of progression around solutions, we’re looking at benefits still to come on more recent signings as well as things that were signed in the first half of ’24 and not yet implemented and those that we expect to sign in the second half of ’24 that would have some in-year benefit still.

The next third of that, I put on the demand generation efforts that Erik spoke about in the prepared remarks. And that’s highlighting all the things that we’re doing around web pricing, around the enhancements of the website. And then the balance of that is based on things that we have line of sight to within public sector, both kind of things that we do have that we’re able to track in the pipeline and then expectations around some improvements on those state and local budgets. But what I want to be clear on, too, is it’s not like we’re sitting here waiting for the macro to improve or like relying on seasonality. Internally, when we target growth for our team, we don’t say, go get 4 points of seasonality, everything that we’re doing internally is based on a set of initiatives.

So the ones I’ve given you are the ones that we have the highest degree of confidence on, but there are a lot of other great things happening inside the company that have inflection targets like OEM fasteners, for example, are touched on progress there. I just don’t want to leave you with the idea that we’re sitting here waiting on the economy to improve and not doing anything else from a countermeasure perspective on growth.

Tommy Moll: Thank you for the comprehensive answer there. As a follow-up, I wanted to ask about the web pricing realignment, which it seems like you’re discussing as a largely successful initiative completed in February. The KPIs you offered all sound pretty positive. But my question is just to drill a little bit deeper because there’s often more than meets the eye in these kinds of initiatives and execution is not easy. So has there been anything that surprised you, is there some risk that the trends we’re seeing for the core customer are reflecting some of the challenges with this initiative? Or is that not the case in your mind?

Erik Gershwind: So Tommy, let me take those in reverse order. So the challenges in the core customer, I absolutely would not link to this, if anything, because we realize that the bulk of the SKUs and the awareness campaign hit at the very end of Q2. If anything, early signs given that March got to tick better so far with core customers, we see it as a net positive. Look, you’re right to drill in here. It’s easy for us sitting on a call to let this roll off the tongue, and it sounds like it’s the click of a switch. It is a heavy effort inside the company. It was led by Martina and her team, I mean there are twice-a-day stand-ups on this. This has gotten a heck of a lot of attention. I think what we’re saying is, I hesitate to declare anything of success because it is such early days.