We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Alcohol Stocks to Buy Now. Since Molson Coors Beverage Company (NYSE:TAP) is part of the list, we have discussed the stock in detail.
The Global Alcohol Industry:
In 2019, the global alcohol consumption, measured in liters of pure alcohol per person of 15 years of age or older, was 5.5 liters, which is a 4.7% relative decrease from 5.7 liters in 2010. As we mentioned in our article – 20 Most Consumed Alcohols in the World – the global alcoholic beverages market size was valued at $1.62 trillion in 2021 and is projected to reach $2 trillion by 2031, with a CAGR of 2.2% during the forecast period.
The market is likely to be driven by the increasing global young-adult demographic, coupled with high disposable income and consumer demand for premium/super-premium products. Globally, beer drives the market for alcoholic beverages. Regionally, North America and Asia-Pacific are expected to dominate the market during the forecast period.
Resilience of the Beverage Alcohol Industry:
As reported by Forbes, an analysis by Goldman Sachs has revealed that beer and spirits volumes in the American market have shown little correlation with economic growth. Their sales are more related to the general trends of alcohol consumption per capita rather than the general state of the economy. This is because beer and spirits are often seen as affordable luxuries or even staples.
Similarly, a Cambridge University study focused on business cycles and alcohol consumption across 24 countries over more than 50 years also found no symmetric reduction in beer and spirits consumption during recessions. The decreasing levels of average per capita income lead to very small changes in gross alcohol, wine, and beer consumption. In fact, the surge in unemployment during recessions could instead trigger an increase in the average alcohol intake. Moreover, it was also revealed that those who enjoy drinking tend to drink a lot more during the good times.
However, during times of economic difficulty, consumers tend to drink more at home as it is cheaper than hitting the bars. So while on-premise businesses suffer a decline in sales, liquor stores and online alcohol retailers tend to profit heavily.
Americans drank more alcohol also during the pandemic and this was reflected in the resultant imposts collected by the national kitty. Alcohol tax revenues collected by the U.S. Treasury Department rose by 8% in the fiscal year that ended on Sept. 30, 2021, compared to the previous year, and remained well above pre-pandemic levels.
Alcohol As a Lucrative Investment Asset:
Rare whiskeys are incredible as investment vehicles. Aptly named ‘Liquid Gold’, this beloved liquor can preserve and even increase in value during economic instabilities, inflationary periods, and recessions. One simply cannot forget about the bottle of The Macallan 1926 Valerio Adami that sold in auction for $2.7 million in November 2023, or the 1975 cask of Ardbeg single malt which was acquired by a private collector in Asia in 2022 for over $20 million, more than double the amount Glenmorangie paid for the entire Ardbeg distillery and all its stock in 1997.
The Rare Whisky 101 Apex 1000 Index tracks whiskeys that are highly sought after for collection. It has gained over 383% since 2013, against 286% gains by S&P’s famous benchmark of the top 500 companies for the same period. The RW Japanese 100 Index, on the other hand, includes 100 collector’s bottles from Japan, and since 2015, the index has seen gains of more than 396%. The index includes bottles like Ichiro’s Malt ‘Card’ Ace of Spades, Ace of Diamonds, and King of Hearts, among others.
Similarly, if we enter the realm of rare wines, the Liv-ex Burgundy 150 Index tracks the ten most recently physical vintages for 15 white and red Burgundy, including six Domaine Romanée Conti labels. The index has gained over 102% over the last five years, against around 88% gains made by the broader market during the same period.
Ievgenii Meyer/Shutterstock.com
Methodology:
To collect data for this article, we scanned Insider Monkey’s database of 920 hedge funds and picked the top 10 companies operating in the alcohol sector with the highest number of hedge fund investors. When two companies had the same number of hedge funds investing in them, we ranked them by the revenue of their last financial year instead. Following are the Best Alcohol Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds:
4. Molson Coors Beverage Company (NYSE:TAP)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 36
Molson Coors Beverage Company (NYSE:TAP) is a multinational beverage and brewing company that engages in the production, marketing, and sale of beer, malt beverage products, and now also spirits across multiple regions including the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
Molson Coors reported a revenue of over $2.59 billion in Q1 of 2024, an increase of 10.6% from the previous year. Net profit also increased by over 186% to reach $207.8 million. A major reason for such a massive jump in profit could be the recent boycott against Bud Light, one of Molson Coors’ largest competitors in the American market. However, analysts at Citi stated in April that gains by Molson Coors due to the Bud Light upset are coming to an end. As a result, the stock plunged by almost 10% on the 30th of April. However, the company representatives state in the Q1 earnings call transcript that the American retailers are confident in its core brands, having allocated around 13% more space for Coors Light and Miller Lite in the US during spring resets, supporting their confidence that these share shifts are structural.
The steep selloff also seems excessive considering MC reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.95, which beat the estimates for $0.75 per share, while revenue estimates were also beaten by $100 million. The company also increased the quarterly dividend by over 7% earlier this year, bringing it up to $1.76 per share on an annual basis. Moreover, Molson Coors Beverage Company (NYSE:TAP) announced a new $2 billion share buyback plan in late 2023 that is expected to be completed over the next 5 years. With a market cap of just over $11 billion as of the writing of this article, a $2 billion buyback is set to significantly boost the stock’s EPS.
TAP was held by 36 hedge funds in the Insider Monkey database at the end of Q1 2024, with a collective stake value of around $848.5 million.
Overall, TAP ranks 4th on our list of the best alcohol stocks to buy. You can visit 10 Best Alcohol Stocks to Buy to see other alcohol stocks that are on hedge funds’ radar. While we acknowledge the potential of TAP as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than TAP but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.