Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:MOH) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Scott Fidel: Okay. Thank you.

Operator: The next question comes from Michael Hall with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Michael Hall : Hi. Thank you. Just wanted to touch on the marketplace, again and just ask about like what happened in ’22. So at the beginning of the year, you’re expecting 79% MLR, but Q2 I think there was a large miss really full year expectation to 84%. And then this past quarter, even excluding the 300 bps of scheduling past provided balances still ended up higher than expected. Now you’re at 87% to end the year. So I thought pricing was more disciplined than you went through this major recalibration of your metal peers to cover. So I would have expected more MLR stability than what we saw. Could you walk us through about like what happened with Marketplace and why the large divergent from initial expectations?

Joe Zubretsky: Sure. And as we said in our prepared remarks, even with the exclusion of the one-time items, the COVID-related items the risk adjustment true-up in the middle of the year. And in the fourth quarter, the significant settlement of some prior year provider balances, we did not meet our expectations in marketplace. The continuing MLR drag from that significant SEP membership that renewed into the current year, continued to drag on the MLR. We now believe that the special enrollment period might produce this year 3,000 to 4,000 a month, where it was producing 20,000 to 25,000 a month and the height of the SEP gives the risk full more stability, and we’re priced for it. So we did not meet our expectations even while ignoring the one-time items.

But this year, we feel that with the high-single digit price increase, low-single digit trend, good visibility on our renewal membership to make sure we get appropriate risk scores that we’re in good shape to hit mid-single digit margins in 2023.

Operator: The next question comes from Stephen Baxter with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Stephen Baxter: Yeah. Hi. Thanks. I wanted to follow up on the Medicaid MLR question. I appreciate the color on your expectations. How should we think about Medicaid MLR? I know you probably want to guide it too close quarterly, but do you expect to generally operate around that 88.5 level kind of consistently throughout the year or is there any slope to that line that we should maybe be thinking about? And then just to kind of put a bow on the question on the DCP for the AgeWell business, could you just give us a sense of what the DCPs would look like on a stand-alone basis, we can try to put that into context? Thanks.

Joe Zubretsky: So I’ll turn it to Mark. But yes, given the mix of the business has changed and many of the dynamics of the businesses have changed, the seasonal patterns of how MCRs emerge, has changed slightly over time. So I’ll turn it to Mark to give you a view of how Medicaid might perform over the quarters.

Mark Keim: Yeah. I’m expecting pretty flat. And if you look historically, we’ve run pretty consistently on Medicaid, certainly more so than Medicare in the marketplace. So I think you can model that one pretty straight line. On the AgeWell, we’ll follow up with you offline. I don’t have a discrete number on that. I know what it does to my weighted average, but we can follow-up with that. Thank you.

Operator: The next question comes from Nathan Rich with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Nathan Rich: Great. Thanks for the questions. You mentioned the $2 per share of earnings power from the three remaining COVID risk corridors. What’s the time line to potentially realize these earnings? And then just more generally on state rates, how do you think the process plays out for states potentially revisiting rates as redeterminations occur and potential changes to the underlying risk pools take place. How do you think the states are going to approach that? Thank you.

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