Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:MOH) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 4 of 10

Joe Zubretsky: The way I would answer that is one of the reasons we haven’t forecasted to capture is because the data around how it’s worked in the past is pretty imprecise. I mean we could create all the models with various scenarios. We decided not to forecast it. We have operational protocols in place with member outreach in the states that allow that through text, phone and mail to help members reestablish eligibility and if determined that they are ineligible for Medicaid but eligible for a highly subsidized Marketplace product, we will then warm transfer them over to our distribution channels for Marketplace and capture them in that manner. But because this is uncharted waters, it’s just — it’s never been done before, we chose not to create a model and forecast it, but consider it as upside to our membership growth.

Calvin Sternick: All right. Great. Thanks.

Operator: The next question comes from Scott Fidel with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Scott Fidel: Hi. Thanks. Good morning. I guess, I’ll use my question just to try to fill out a couple of the other modeling elements for 2023. Just interested if you could give us your thoughts on operating cash flow, and then also investment income and interest expense for 2023?

Mark Keim: Sure. Scott, it’s Mark. So when I think about operating cash flow, I focus on cash flow at the parent because that’s what restocks my firepower. I expect to take pretty meaningful dividends. I’ve got a few acquisitions to pay for this year and I’ve got some growth organically that I need to fund. So all told, at the parent, I expect to have more than $0.5 billion by the end of the year. Interest expense, you can model going forward, you know my bonds, you know my rates. On interest income, that’s a wildcard, right? We’re all guessing on that. finishing 2022 with about $7.5 billion of cash and investments. I expect across 2023 to end the year with about $7 billion of cash and investments, including everything at the subs.

Now the wildcard here is, what kind of an interest rate to put on that, right? We’ve had one Fed raise already this year. If you look at the Fed Funds future rates. We’ve got maybe one more raise coming and maybe one or two declines back half of the year. So how do I think about that across the year? Not quite sure. I think you could model any place between mid and high 2s on a yield basis and come out with a pretty credible interest forecast there.

Scott Fidel: Okay. Thanks. And just one quick follow-up question. Just on the M&A side, how you’re thinking about the pipeline and sort of the pacing of engagement in 2023. Obviously, you’ve got some significant installations of new business in flight. So interested in how you’re thinking about layering in M&A as well. Thanks.

Joe Zubretsky: Yeah, Scott. Even with the significant backlog of both integrations on in-flight acquisitions and new contract implementations and our new wins, we have continued to aggressively pursue the M&A pipeline. And nothing has really changed with respect to the appetite of single state operators not for profit plans to listen to the Molina story and want to be part of this larger enterprise, where they continue — they can continue to fulfill their local mission and have access to the broad and deep capabilities and financial resources that we bring. So it’s a great story and nothing has really changed there. I would say, given the size of the pipeline and the level of activity and the maturity of some of the opportunities, we feel very confident in some announcements here in 2023.

Page 4 of 10