Mohawk Industries, Inc. (NYSE:MHK) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Kathryn Thompson: Okay. Yeah. I have a full understanding of the timing difference between residential and non-res, it was really — it was helpful to some extent, but just we are getting a better understanding of that mix shift for you and now, certainly, importantly, what does it look like going forward because, for instance, we are having industry contacts you are saying, listen, we are starting to see projects being not just postponed, but canceled, but we are able to shift mix to adjust. One other follow-up question, as you have obviously made a lot of efforts over the past trailing 12 months to right-size operations and to make various restructuring charges, but stepping back and looking at the bigger picture, from a long-term standpoint what is the industrial logic for having the global footprint, as you mentioned, the business going forward. What’s the argument for keeping the global footprint as it is currently? Thanks very much.

Jeff Lorberbaum: The global footprint allows us to participate in the same categories across the world. It allows us to leverage the knowledge of what we can do with product innovation, styling design, distribution concepts in order to optimize the businesses. In the businesses that we have such as ceramic, we used the technology — we have different businesses that are in high, medium and low, the high ones lead it and then it flows down through to the other ones to help us increase our mix and distribution in the business. In different businesses we get into, we can help, if they are strong in residential, we can help them show to how to maximize their commercial business. We have other categories that we get benefits out of just the processes, running warehouses and distribution, information systems. So there’s a lot of synergies that you can do to help the acquired businesses.

Kathryn Thompson: Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Truman Patterson from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead with your question.

Truman Patterson: Hey. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my questions. First, whenever I am looking at the fourth quarter EPS guidance sequentially versus 3Q, it implies a bit worse than normal seasonal decline. I am just hoping you could help us discuss from a high level, the buckets that got worse throughout the quarter that really led to that guide. And then also I believe you mentioned Brazil, Australia, but are there any areas, product categories, pricing, et cetera, where you are perhaps seeing some stability, if you will?

Jeff Lorberbaum: You covered a lot of ground. Let’s see if I can — most of it. Starting out with the elevated interest rates and inflation are constraining the spending and it’s postponing the remodeling and home purchases. Our assumptions are that it’s more difficult in the period. You are also in the time where the seasonality. So there’s more holidays. Given the control of the inventories and lack of need for manufacturing ahead, there’s more shutdowns being planned in the period. We are assuming increasing pressure in commercial in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter. The margins on a year-over-year are higher than they were, but we think there’s still going to be this greater pressure and less covering the absorbed overheads as we control the inventories and working capital.

We are implementing productivity and cost reductions, and then we expect the foreign exchange, our present assumptions are that it’s a similar headwind with what was happening in the third quarter.

James Brunk: Yeah. So sequentially, that gap that you are talking about, if you look back over time, from 2018 forward, you got mid-20% difference from Q3 to Q4. It’s a little bit more this year and in our implied in our guidance. And I’d say the additional shutdowns and the foreign exchange certainly are two headwinds that maybe a little bit unusual than prior years.

Jeff Lorberbaum: Another also differences, in normal years, we would normally fully inventory down in the end of the third quarter, the start of the fourth quarter and then be building back as we come out of the quarter. So we are not doing — that didn’t happen this year.

Truman Patterson: Okay. Thanks for that. And then just wanted to follow-up on kind of a prior question. You all have been generating a lot of cash flow this year, $2.6 billion in debt. It seems pretty manageable. And Jeff, I think you mentioned earlier that, that, perhaps you might not step into share repurchase today. I am just hoping you could discuss potential for M&A, any geographies or product categories of focus, as well as how you might balance that with your own current valuation of your share price, balance M&A in lieu of share repurchases?

Jeff Lorberbaum: First, before we get into the new M&A, we have the two recent acquisitions we have done in Brazil and Mexico which we are integrating and taking costs out. We have three or four bolt-on acquisitions that are also being put together with the business. All of those should give us significant upside as we come up and the volumes go up in the businesses. As we come out of this in the future, you are correct that the value of the business today allows to purchase a stock and give significant opportunity which will — which we consider as soon as we make sure there’s not another worldwide problem that’s about to occur with all that events going on as we go through and then we will have to see what that looks like versus other alternatives that arise.

Truman Patterson: Asked another way, any M&A deals flowing across your desk, are those valuations more attractive than your current valuation for Mohawk?

Jeff Lorberbaum: The only businesses that tend to sell in this environment are ones that are seriously distressed and don’t have any options as if these valuations, most companies don’t do many — don’t try to sell their businesses.

Truman Patterson: Okay. Perfect. Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Laura Champine from Loop Capital. Please go ahead with your question.

Laura Champine: Thanks for taking my question. You called out in your press release the negative impact on Europe from the conflict in Ukraine. Can you give us more information on the Russian business, what are your plans for that and is that business a material hit to earnings this year?