ModivCare Inc. (NASDAQ:MODV) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Heath Sampson: Yes. It’s a critical part of the remainder of this year. There’s another slide that you’ll see there that shows about 60% is run rated. So we’ve done a lot of good work. And then the remainder of that is actions that we’ve identified and are executing on. The bridge, which is a good bridge to show, even though it was a $1 million quarter — sequential quarter, we had a lot before, right? So the run rate coming off of 2023 into this year is really driving a lot of those savings. So the $1 million had a lot to do with the growth in trip volume and utilization as well. But we feel good about getting that $34 million to $36 million in-year. And then even beyond that, because of the run rate and because of the initiatives that we are putting in now, I expect that it will be about a $60 million full year benefit as we enter 2025.

So, yes, there is a lot of work that needs to still happen, but we have identified it. And again, it’s about 60% of that 30-plus million run rate from previous execution that we’ve had.

Taji Philips: Great. Appreciate the color. And then just back on personal care just want to go back to this comment about how you’re expecting these like delayed reimbursement increases. Maybe can you talk about the magnitude of those? And I guess how we’re how you’re working to stabilize purchase services because obviously that expense line had pretty much triggered the shortfall this quarter.

Heath Sampson: Yes. So it puts that kind of what maybe $5 million-ish delta in the bridge that you see there when you net it all out. About a $1 million is about a reimbursement. So the reimbursement rates that we expect to get. So another couple of million, which is in the G&A and also in the service expense is based on us getting the synergies after these can centralization efforts and automation efforts that we have. And the other $2 million is around is just higher service expense. And we expect we will grow and get leverage out of that specifically in a couple of states where we know that we have growth targets that allow us to get leverage. So that’s how it breaks down. And we have plans and we expect to be able to get back to the margins and growth rates that we had prior.

Taji Philips: Thank you.

Heath Sampson: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question is from Pito Chickering with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Pito Chickering: Good morning guys. Sp two questions for me here. Matrix, I think this is the first time you’ve given color like this sort of monetization of Matrix? I guess, so two questions on that one. I guess what gives you confidence that that asset can be monetized over the next sort of 12 months? And then we’re not asking for a price here but any ranges or multiples of sort of where you think some sort of transaction can be realized?

Heath Sampson: Yes. Well, similar to what I talked about, how proud I am of my team here, and then specifically around go-to-market, the same is for Matrix. Catherine and her team, Catherine’s the CEO there, what they’ve done over the last 18 months and really for the last six months. We had a Board meeting a couple of weeks ago, and we’re going through everything and it’s just the tremendous work that he’s doing. So the results in the financials are there and growing and stable. And then the other conviction that the team has and I’m I have as well is the platform they’re also building to really leverage more care in the home or more outcome change in the home. And it really gets down to their technology implementation that they’ve had.

So you couple those two things together and the sustained success that this team has. And then again as importantly 2,800 nurses that are in people’s homes. And there’s a lot of value that they can have on the health care system. So, and there’s a lot of imbalance. So we have a lot of confidence that we’ll be able to get them to another owner and grow beyond that. So which is why, I gave that guidance and confidence around our ability to do that. So, the multiples are going to get because of the great effort that they had. So I’m not going to comment on what they’re actually going to be. Obviously, if you get this question and Peter you may have asked this before hey, we’re going to get the Signify multiple which is a 30 times EBITDA. No. That’s not possible.

But it’s going to be well above the kind of standard healthcare services multiples. And so I feel really good about it. And again, thanks to that team and the execution, who get it done.

Pito Chickering: Great. And then second question just looking at the first quarter EBITDA results versus year or fourth quarter guidance, so like, $36 million. Can you walk us through just how we should be bridging 1Q to 4Q? And the margins sort of throughout the year kind of where do you see the biggest margin improvement? And it’s and then sort of touch on some other questions, but what are the biggest key drivers for those margins getting better?

Heath Sampson: Yeah. Well, so similar to what we said last quarter as well as I think Barb even said in hers. The ramp is in the back part of the year. And so I’m focusing on mobility here first. And it really gets to the stuff you’re implementing to sales that we have. So again those are some sales that we’ve already sold. And those are coming on now and I expect them to come on more in Q3. So that’s an important item. But that would show why the ramp is in the back half of the year, a redetermination being done. And then really that kind of the normalized growth within Medicaid post-Q2 and redeterminations done and then the last component that is still needed to execute on it. And it also is back-end weighted in Q3 and Q4 as the cost out.

And again, they’re 60% done from a run-rate perspective. But we still have work to do there. So consistent with what we said before the EBITDA targets around the 8% range exit rate in NEMT. And then in Personal Care, we do expect to ramp and be exiting at that 10% EBITDA rate. And then monitoring is going to have that steady growth there too. So though it — is a ramp, its Q3, Q4 driven specifically mobility. It’s a lot of those things that we’ve done in the past that will ensure that we hit those Q2 through Q4 target.

Pito Chickering: Great. Thanks so much.

Heath Sampson: Thanks.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Rishi Parekh with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Rishi Parekh: Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. And my first question, I was hoping that you could walk us through your MA exposure through the various divisions? And specifically within NEMT, what services are currently being utilized between Barbados, NEMT, MA members?