Mobileye Global Inc. (NASDAQ:MBLY) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Luke Junk: Thank you.

Dan Galves: Thank you. Thanks, Luke. Next question please.

Operator: Our next question comes from Chris McNally from Evercore. Please proceed.

Chris McNally: Thanks so much, Amnon. Thanks team. So maybe just some quick math, [batting] (ph), cleanup here on the ADAS hand. So I think previously, Mobileye has discussed 50%, ‘21 penetration for the industry moving to about 75%, ‘25, ‘26. This seems slightly pushed out now looking at ‘25 or ‘26, something like in the low or mid 60% penetration. So first, can we talk about industry adoption on base ADAS? And then second, around global market share, Amnon, you discussed lower share on maybe some of the domestics of China share maybe 50% or below. Is it fair to see your 65% to 70% historical share maybe move to this kind of, I don’t know, 64%, 65% on that mix effect over the next couple of years? So any new high level math that you could provide us on industry [chips] (ph), sort of later in the decade would be really helpful.

Amnon Shashua: I think on the western OEMs, our market share is continuing to grow. Just based on all the design wins that we had in 2023 and 2022, we are growing our market share. As I said before, eight of the 10 biggest OEMs, we have more than 90% market share. With China, the growth of the Chinese OEMs is faster than the growth of our market share. So our market share there is reducing naturally. As I mentioned before, Changan is growing very, very fast and we have zero — we have no relationship with Changan. BYD is growing very fast. We have only 30% market share with BYD. But we are continuing to win, to get design wins, and both the low end ADAS and the high end ADAS like SuperVision. So we will see how the market share in China will play out in the next few years, but now it’s really an unstable position because the market is going very, very fast.

Nimrod Nehushtan: If I may add, I think that if you refer to a correction to the market share calculation based on the inventory levels, we really think that the inventory levels that we’ve disclosed were accumulated over a period of time that is longer than a year, likely closer to three years. So if you kind of try to compound what will be the effect for the annual volumes that we have disclosed, it’s more about a $2 million reduction per year on average, which accounts for maybe 1%, 2% of the market share calculation that we’ve had in the past. So we don’t think that this indicates for a significant change in our market share forecast on a global level.

Chris McNally: All makes sense on the explanation on market share. Maybe if we can go back to that industry adoption, sort of when will we hit on a global basis, 75% penetration? Obviously some of those western players, Amnon, have been pretty slow to make standard fit, obviously outside of Toyota. But any view on what is sort of a ballpark year we can think about industry ADAS penetration being around 75%?

Amnon Shashua: From external sources, this is the number that is being projected till the end of the decade, 75% market share of ADAS. We have no reason to believe this is going to change.

Dan Galves: Even possibly higher. And I think that India is an area where we see a lot of growth. So the western markets are fairly well penetrated, probably above 70%. But there’s still some growth there. But I think a market like India, which is maybe single digit ADAS penetration, but the systems that have been on the road in production the last couple of years have been extremely successful. So now everybody’s trying to kind of catch up and we have a very good position there. So I think that that’s going to be a good market for ADAS adoption as well as our share over the next couple of years.

Nimrod Nehushtan: If I may add, we do see also — we do see in the last year, we did start to see a growing pull from regulatory bodies in emerging markets in order to kind of start promoting the adoption [ADAS] (ph) systems in new markets like South America, India as Dan mentioned. In addition, in Europe and the United States, there is a move towards mandating safety systems for vehicle production. This started just recently in Europe with GSR, which is not just a kind of a bonus feature, it’s a mandate in order to sell cars. So these two driving forces are what we think will push the industry towards higher adoption rates within the next few years.

Chris McNally: Thank you.

Dan Galves: Thanks, Chris.

Operator: This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Dan Galves for closing comments.

Dan Galves: Thank you, Kat, for managing the call. Thanks to the management team of Mobileye and thanks to everyone for joining. We’ll talk to you next quarter. Thank you.

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