Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (NYSE:MAA) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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But taxes and insurance, there’s a pressure point. What could take us higher or lower to our guidance on the overall, which is primarily going to be taxes and insurance, would be we don’t have a lot of information yet on either 1 of those. Taxes, when you go into the year, notoriously, you don’t have a lot, you’re going off — you have a good idea what you think valuations will be based on cap rate markets, but you’re totally guessing on millage rates, and that has been very volatile in the last year-or-so as municipalities deal with their budget issues. So we think we €“ and we’ve got a few fights left over from last year. I mean we’ve got some things that we’re going to fight hard, and we continue to. In Texas, we’ll formally litigate half of our properties this year than we did last year, and some of those have not yet finished.

And so €“ there are things like that, that can make you go higher or lower. We feel like we’ve got our best estimate in there right now, and that’s the appropriate thing to do. And so overall, we’ll see some moderation in the controllable expenses, but expense pressure driven by insurance and taxes.

Tim Argo: Yes, Chandni, I’ll add to that. As Al mentioned, about 40% of our expenses are taxed at insurance, call it, around 7%. And then the other 60% around 5.5%. So if I had to just thinking in terms of absolute year-over-year growth, I sort of rank them, I would say insurance is probably the highest, R&M probably the second highest in real estate tax is the third. So hitting on R&M, it’s really driven by inflationary pressures, not so much we expect to get really any worse in 2023 that kind of carry over earn-in, if you will, on some of the inflationary increases that we saw in 2022,we’ve seen HVAC up 16%, plumbing up 18%, appliances up 17%. So that’s expected to drive the pressure on the R&M side, but we still remain on a per unit basis lower than the sector average.

I do think personnel moderates from what we saw in 2022. I think we have some opportunity there. But — and then the other smaller line items are fairly manageable. So it’s really on a controllable, if you will, side it’s R&M, we think is driving the bulk of the increase.

Chandni Luthra: Thank you for all that details. For my follow-up question, I just wanted to clarify or trying to understand how are you thinking about bad debt in 2023? What’s embedded in your guidance if there is anything and how does that compare versus 2022? And then as you’ve obviously talked about supply being higher in 2023, how are you thinking about concessions? Are you seeing more concessions in your markets, in your properties? Any thoughts around that would be very helpful. Thank you.

Brad Hill: I’ll start with the bad debt. I mean I think in terms of what we have in our guidance, collection practices have come pretty much back to normal, not 100% maybe, but very close, I would say. something to say about that. But collections are very good. What we dialed in as close to historic normal, call it, 40 to 50 basis points delinquency, which is very low. And we have almost no collections coming from any government programs. We have the amount of our uncollected from history as it continues to decline. So we’re in a very good position there. And so our forecast for the year reflects that. And so moderating or normalizing trends that we’re putting our forecast really has collections about where they typically are in a normal environment.

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