Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (NYSE:MAA) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Eric Bolton: Well, Alex, this is Eric. As we sit here today, we continue to feel good about the demand side of the equation for us. As I mentioned, we’re not seeing any €“ I mean, the lead volume and traffic that we’re seeing is still strong. We are seeing €“ not seeing any evidence of stress with our renters in terms of collections. We’re not seeing any evidence of people coming in, talking about losing their job because of €“ and needing to get out their lease. We’re not seeing any roommating trends starting to pick up. And so, as we sit here €“ and then also, you look at the migration trends, we still saw 12% of the leases that we did in the fourth quarter were for people moving into the Sunbelt from outside of Sunbelt. So, we are still not seeing any worries build on the demand side of the equation at this point, moderating from what it was but still quite strong.

Alexander Goldfarb: Thank you. All good. Thank you.

Eric Bolton: Okay. Thank you.

Operator: We’ll take our next question from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Austin Wurschmidt: Great. Thanks guys. I was just curious if you could share how €“ I believe the 3% figure you provided on lease-over-leases, the blended lease rate growth assumption embedded in guidance. And I’m just wondering if you could breakdown that between sort of the first half assumption and back half, as you alluded to, kind of renewals maybe trending a little bit lower as the year progresses?

Tim Argo: Hey, Austin, this is Tim. Yes, you heard me mention in the comments that renewals right now are the catalyst for us and kind of carrying the strength, new lease pricing outpace renewals for the bulk of 2022. So we knew we kind of had some runway on the renewal side that’s carrying us through this early part of 2023. So, the 8% to 9% I talked about on renewals, I think that probably carries through the first quarter, call it, and then starts to moderate a little bit as you get into probably, June through the rest of the year, I would expect it to be a little more normal with sort of what you’ve typically seen from MAA, which is kind of in that 6% to 7% range and then on the new lease side, we’re sitting slightly negative right now.

I think that will slowly accelerate through the spring and summer and go modestly positive and then trend back down towards the end of the year. So, kind of higher renewals in the first half of the year, moderating a little bit, new lease rates growing slightly through the year and then moderating just with seasonality, as we typically would see in Q4 and then you kind of blend that all together and get to the forecast that we have for blended lease-over-lease.

Austin Wurschmidt: Well, on the new lease rate side, I guess what specifically €“ I mean it seems like that’s fairly low relative to what you’ve achieved historically, pre-pandemic period and with 3% market rent growth, you would think that you kind of surpass that 3% into the peak leasing season before it moderates in the back half of the year. So, I guess I’m trying to understand that kind of cautious new lease rate growth assumption in your guidance? And then, could you also just share what would get you to the low end of the guidance range because that seems like a pretty draconian scenario to be able to achieve the lower end? Thanks.

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