We recently published a list of Top 10 AI Stocks Investors are Talking About in October. Since Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) ranks 2nd on the list, it deserves a deeper look.
Venu Krishna, Barclays head of U.S. equity strategy, said while talking to CNBC in a latest program that he is not revising his S&P 500 year-end projection of 5,600 because he believes stock valuations are “full.”
“If you see what’s happening, numbers (earnings) have been cut sharply going into the end. What is still anchoring the market is big tech, even though their earnings themselves are kind of decelerating. Then seasonality comes into play. October is the weakest month, and you don’t want to get ahead of that.”
Asked whether he does not believe the market really broadened out, Krishna said while there were some signs of market broadening, the “anchor” of the rally remains big tech, which according to him, are just six stocks.
Moving beyond the earnings and valuations debate, another factor still impacting investor sentiment is the Federal Reserve’s next moves.
Talking about the latest Fed minutes released October 9, Wolfe Research’s Stephanie Roth said on CNBC that a “substantial” majority of Fed officials wanted a 50-basis-point rate cut. However, she said in the next meeting, a 50bps rate cut is “off the table.”
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Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 279
Wedbush Securities highlights Nvidia and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) as frontrunners in the ongoing AI revolution, with new data suggesting the AI infrastructure market could expand tenfold by 2027. AI spending is rising across the tech supply chain, driven by the regular launch of generative AI projects in enterprise settings, according to Dan Ives. This signals that AI is becoming a “top priority” for IT budgets heading into 2025, potentially unlocking new AI applications.
“While Nvidia and Microsoft are the core drivers of AI now, we are seeing many other tech stalwarts join the AI party, including Oracle, ServiceNow, Palantir, Salesforce, Dell, IBM, Apple, AMD among others,” Ives said. He believes tech stocks are poised to gain more than 10% by year-end, with an additional 20% rise expected in 2025, as the AI-driven tech bull market enters its next phase.
However, some believe OpenAI was the only key edge Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) had in the AI race and it’s quickly fading away.
DA Davidson recently downgraded the stock, with analyst Gil Luria saying the company’s advantages in the cloud and code generation sectors have diminished, making it difficult for Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) to maintain its previous performance. He highlighted that Amazon Web Services is now nearly matching Azure in cloud growth, while Google Cloud is also gaining momentum.
Luria downgraded Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) from Buy to Neutral, maintaining a $475 price target. He pointed out that Amazon and Google have made significant strides in integrating custom silicon into their data centers, putting Microsoft at a disadvantage. This reliance on NVIDIA (NVDA) for technology means Microsoft is effectively transferring wealth from its shareholders to NVIDIA’s, according to Luria.
Following a year of margin expansion, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) is now projecting a decline in operating margins due to increased data center capital expenditures rising from 12% to 21% of revenue. This increase outpaces that of Amazon and Google, largely due to Microsoft’s dependence on NVIDIA.
Luria said that if Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) continues to overinvest at the current rate, margins could drop by at least 1 percentage point cumulatively, potentially necessitating layoffs of around 10,000 employees each year to maintain margins.
The analyst also thinks Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) has lost much of its edge with GitHub Copilot, as Amazon and GitLab (GTLB) have caught up in capabilities.
The concerns voiced by the analyst are not unfounded. Microsoft is also losing its edge in open-source models as enterprises shift toward cost-effective, transparent open-source solutions like Meta’s Llama 3.1.
Generation Investment Management Global Equity Strategy stated the following regarding Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“Generative AI’s hunger for power has increased disproportionately with its intelligence. According to one estimate, OpenAI’s GPT-4 required 50 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity to train, much more than the 1.3 GWh needed for GPT-3.3 And then AI requires even more power when it is put to use (so called ‘inference’). Some of the latest trends worry us. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) appears to be slipping in its ESG goals, with its greenhouse gas emissions rising again last year, as it invests in becoming a big player in AI. It is struggling in particular to curb its Scope 3 emissions in the capital goods category – nowhere more so than in the activity associated with the construction of data centres: both the embedded carbon in construction materials like steel and cement, as well as the emissions from the manufacturing of hardware components such as semiconductors, servers and racks. Google’s emissions have risen by close to 50% in the past five years.
We feel it is worth dwelling on Microsoft for a few moments, since we suspect you will be hearing a lot more about the relationship between AI and sustainability in the coming months. The bottom line is that we continue to see Microsoft as a sustainability leader. In the case of Scope 2 emissions, the company covers 100% of its electricity use with purchases of renewable energy. Crucially, though, the majority of this green energy is directly sourced via power purchase agreements, which bring new renewable capacity to the grid. Microsoft is also committed to operating 24/7 on renewable power by 2030, a policy that will help bring energy storage onto the grid as well…” (Click here to read the full text)
Overall, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) ranks 2nd on Insider Monkey’s list titled Top 10 AI Stocks Investors are Talking About in October. While we acknowledge the potential Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MSFT but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.