MetLife, Inc. (NYSE:MET) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Keep in mind, the roll-off rate can fluctuate from period to period as it did in the first quarter due to a greater volume of higher-yielding floating rate assets paying off. We would expect this positive trend of new money yields outpacing roll-off yields to persist given the current level of interest rates. Now, let’s switch gears to discuss expenses on Page 8. This chart shows a comparison of our direct expense ratio for the full year 2023 of 12.2% and Q1 of 2024 of 11.9%. As we have highlighted previously, we believe our full year direct expense ratio is the best way to measure performance due to fluctuations in quarterly results. Our Q1 direct expense ratio benefited from solid top line growth and ongoing expense discipline. We are off to a good start achieving a full year 2024 direct expense ratio of 12.3% or below, demonstrating our consistent execution and a sustained efficiency mindset.

I will now discuss our cash and capital positions on Page 9. Cash and liquid assets at the holding companies were $5.2 billion at March 31, which is above our target cash buffer of $3 billion to $4 billion. This includes approximately $1.4 billion used in April for a debt maturity and a debt redemption. We do not have any further debt maturities for the balance of the year. Beyond this, cash at the holding companies reflects the net effects of subsidiary dividends, payment of our common stock dividend and share repurchases of roughly $1.2 billion in the first quarter. As well as holding company expenses and other cash flows. In addition, we have repurchased shares totaling approximately $330 million in April. Regarding our statutory capital for our U.S. companies, our 2023 combined NAIC RBC ratio was 407%, which is above our target ratio of 360%.

For our U.S. companies, preliminary first quarter 2024 statutory operating earnings were approximately $1 billion, essentially flat year-over-year, while net income was approximately $570 million. We estimate that our total U.S. statutory adjusted capital was approximately $18.3 billion as of March 31, 2024, down 6% from year-end 2023, primarily due to dividends paid and surplus notes repaid partially offset by operating earnings. Finally, we expect the Japan solvency margin ratio to be approximately 725% as of March 31, which will be based on statutory statements that will be filed in the next few weeks. Before I wrap up, I would just highlight that we have an updated commercial mortgage loan slide as of March 31 in the appendix. Overall, the CML portfolio continues to perform as expected with attractive loan-to-value and debt service coverage ratios as well as the expectation of modest losses.

Let me conclude by saying that MetLife delivered another solid quarter to begin the new year. The underlying strength of our business fundamentals was evident with strong top line growth, coupled with disciplined underwriting and expense management. In addition, our core spreads remain robust and sustainable given the higher yield environment. Also, we saw a nice rebound in our private equity returns. While the current environment remains uncertain, we are excited about the outlook and growth prospects of our businesses over the near-term and beyond. MetLife continues to move forward from a position of strength with a strong balance sheet and a diversified set of market-leading businesses, which generate solid recurring free cash flow. And we are committed to deploying this free cash flow to achieve responsible growth and build long-term sustainable value for our customers and our shareholders.

And with that, I’ll turn the call back to the operator for your questions.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And we have a question from Suneet Kamath with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Suneet Kamath: Hi, thanks. Just wanted to start with VII. John, you had mentioned, I think, a real estate loss of 5.8%. Can you just unpack that a little bit? Was that actually losses on sales or appraisals? And how do you see that tracking as we move through the balance of the year?

John McCallion: Sure. Good morning, Suneet. Primarily appraisals and valuation. So we actually saw, if you recall, in the fourth quarter, it was fairly flat. Appraisals, they tend to lag a bit in terms of just market declines. And so we saw kind of a catch-up of that in the fourth quarter, which obviously gets reported here in the first quarter. Our view is that it will start to moderate. We probably still have some pressure in 2Q, but less so. And then moderates through the rest of this year. And then we think you start to see things start to pick up in a positive way towards the latter part of this year into 2025. That’s kind of the outlook, if you will.

Suneet Kamath: Okay. That makes sense. And then I guess, Michel, on your comments for future share buybacks, I think you used the word measured pace. Is that measured pace relative to what you did in the first quarter? Or is that relative to what you did in April? And is the plan to exhaust the $3.6 billion authorization in 2024?

Michel Khalaf: Yes. Hi, Suneet, thanks for the question. So yes, I did use the word measure, and I was referring to the first quarter. But I think as you’ve seen in the first quarter and what you’ve seen from us over time is that we do move expeditiously and deliberately to return capital to shareholders. Especially in the absence of other high-value capital deployment opportunities following divestments, we did so following the spin-off of our former retail business, following the sale of Auto and Home and we closed on our risk transfer deal in the fourth quarter. So looking ahead and without me getting overly prescriptive, I would say that we lead into the first quarter at a pace that is greater than what you might see for the balance of the year.

Suneet Kamath: Okay. Thanks, Michel.

Operator: Next, we go to the line of Ryan Krueger with KBW. Please go ahead.

Ryan Krueger: Thanks. Good morning. First, I just wanted to clarify one thing on the variable investment income comment. John, did you say that you expected to be towards the higher end of the range that you had given for the balance of the year?

John McCallion: Yes. Hey Ryan, it’s John. I think Suneet’s question was focused on real estate. And so I think what we’re just trying to – and regarding outlook in terms of the real estate funds and so we saw a negative return this quarter of 5.8%. I mentioned I thought it would be less negative next quarter, but we still think there’ll be a little pressure in just kind of the appraisals coming through and then it will start – it will kind of moderate from there and start to have an upward trajectory is kind of the way we put it.

Ryan Krueger: Okay. Got it. Other question was on the Group Benefits business. Can you talk more about the competitive environment you’re seeing at this point as you went through January 1 renewals as well as what you saw with persistency and pricing?