Methanex Corporation (NASDAQ:MEOH) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Bernard Horn: Yes, good morning. I just have another question on the MTO market in China. You mentioned that, there was another a new naphtha cracker coming up. I just wondered if the competitive dynamics might change with a kind of shiny new naphtha cracker, will it become more cost competitive in some way that could in any way affect the demand for methanol in that market? And secondly, there is a considerable amount of new capacity coming up. I think BASF is putting up a huge plant there. I’m not sure if they would have any offtake on — I mean, any supply of methanol that might change the competitive dynamics of methanol in that market?

Rich Sumner: Yes, so let me clarify what I was talking about with MTO units. So the MTO side, I’m talking about is, it’s all — the MTO units on the same site as the refinery expansion. Today the MTO units is feeding into derivative downstream. They’ve started — they’ve now built out a new refinery project on the same site, right, next door with both the naphtha cracker as well as new derivative downstream. So once all the site is fully commissioned, they actually need both in terms of feed. When we look at economics, MTO today looks more competitive than naphtha and if you also include the fact that MTO is buying a considerable amount of product from Iran at discounted prices to international prices, that makes it even more attractive. So we would expect to see that, that plant starts up. So it’s really a very site-specific issue, but it obviously has big demand impact given this MTO unit consumes over 2 million tons per year.

Bernard Horn: Okay. Yes, thanks. That is very helpful. I was little confused as to what you were saying about that.

Rich Sumner: Yes.

Bernard Horn: All right, thanks. And anything on the BASF plant and other big chemical expansions there, whether they might in some ways produce byproduct of methanol in anyway that would affect the competitive market for methanol in China?

Rich Sumner: Not familiar with that, but certainly — I mean what we’re seeing is not the expansions. We consider that in the mix of all the capacity that’s being added, I’m sure, but nothing specific to mention around that.

Bernard Horn: Thanks very much. Have a good day.

Operator: . Your next question comes from the line of Joshua Spector with UBS. Please go ahead.

James Cannon: Hey guys, this is James Cannon on for Josh. Just looking at kind of where gas costs have come down to at this point in 2023. You’re starting to hear some comments on potential reopening and not reopening, but improvement in Europe as things become more affordable and potentially seeing some rebuild in feedstock inventories of the downstream production. Can you comment on what you’re seeing in that market versus what we’re seeing through destocking in 4Q?

Rich Sumner: So yes, so I guess when we talked about our fourth quarter, our fourth quarter we saw traditional chemical applications declined about by about 3% and a lot of that was driven by both Europe and Asia. Right now certainly, we think that the decrease in natural gas prices has supported producers and manufacturing base in Europe. As of right now, we would say that, it’s likely got a little upside from where we were towards the end of the year, but we got to wait and see. I think our customer base is a little more optimistic than what they were three months ago. So, but still got to wait and see and see how operating rates are impacted, but I’d say modest improvement in outlook there.