Methanex Corporation (NASDAQ:MEOH) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Rich Sumner: So, I think the right number to use on the CapEx is the lower of your range, they’re around $150 million. And I think, you’ve got all the numbers in terms of the other cash outlays. So yes, we’re focused on the $300 million bond. And I think as of today, today’s pricing more probably, that’s the main focus. We generate a little over $200 million in free cash flow with G3 at $300 methanol price. Above that then, you’re probably getting above the bond, if you get closer to $350 million. We still see the market environment today is supportive of what we need to repay the bond, but we’re really focused on that. If we were to have a really stronger methanol market, then you start looking at free cash flow beyond the debt repayment.

We don’t have any major capital ahead of us. And so we would be looking at returning excess cash and likely some balanced approach between looking at the balance sheet further on deleverage. But we’re really focused on the $300 million bond today.

Matthew Blair: Great. Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Josh Spector from UBS. Please go ahead, your line is open.

Josh Spector: Yes. Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I guess, first, I just wanted to ask a follow-up on the cash flow side. So, when you think about the working capital build next year with the G3 startup, I mean, you’re already purchasing and reselling some tonnes. So, is there a way to size kind of the net impact that you would expect that to be in terms of cash use to build that inventory?

Rich Sumner: Yes. I — we’re not really concerned with the working capital build up here. I don’t think that there’s any strategies we’re having in terms of managing that down. We’re — you will see, we are buying a lot of product today, which we will significantly reduce with G3 coming online, because we’re not going to be growing our sales by 1.8 million tonnes next year. We’ve already grown our sales. So, you’ll see a lot of purchased product being displaced by produced product, which would be supportive of lower inventory values anyways.

Josh Spector: Yes. So, I appreciate that. I guess, that’s where I was kind of going. So, it do kind of net offset each other, so it’s not really a major cash use. Is that kind of what you’re saying or should we be thinking about it as somewhat of a cash use?

Rich Sumner: Yes.

Josh Spector: Okay. And then the other question I have is, just more on cost curve and just methanol price support. If I heard your comment correctly, you talked about $300 a tonne methanol price support. Your posted pricing in China is higher. I guess, what do you view as the pricing driver here? Is it the fuel value? is it coal? And then how does that evolve into next year in your view?

Rich Sumner: Our posted price is higher, but after discount, we’re probably in a — we’re kind of closer to those levels. What’s driving the price today is really, it’s going to be the marginal producer cost, which is a co-producer cost in China. And then the other factor that we look very closely at is the affordability of methanol into – primarily into the olefins industry. And I think right now, we would say that both of those factors are kind of pointing to the levels, where we are today in China, at around $200 spot pricings and around $280 to $300. We have seen some improvement in the olefins market. And I would say that, that sector relative to oil pricing today is pricing well under where it would be on a kind of mid-cycle basis.