Methanex Corporation (NASDAQ:MEOH) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Rich Sumner: Yes, MTO margins is something that has been under pressure for quite some time. What we’ve seen is that they’ve ran pretty stably and where we have seen them typically take lower operating rates as when there’s a supply strained environment, where methanol prices are running up or we will see them often take some turnarounds to perform maintenance. Right now, they’re operating at 80% 85% operating rates, but I would say, the market’s pretty tight. And in Asia in particular, they’re working off of low inventory levels. We haven’t seen any decisions being made there that would change our view of where we are today and operating rates. But that’s always something that that will continue to monitor. A lot of times what happens is, they become the balance on the market, right, so if the market goes short and then they’ll moderate their rates and it puts things back into balance, but we’re not seeing any indications is that right now?

Matthew Blair: Sounds good. And then could you talk about the underlying cost dynamics in Q2 versus Q1? It seems like there would be some tailwinds in a few areas. One would be G. three appears to be running at like a $15 million on fixed cost impact in Q2 versus the $25 million in Q1? And then I think in Egypt, shouldn’t you be rolling off some elevated shipping costs. Now as you have that plant back online, are there any other elements on the cost side that we should be thinking about for Q2? And does that makes sense you would have some cost tailwinds in Q2 versus Q1?

Rich Sumner: Yes. I think, you’re right about the G. three cost impact. We brought forward the full impact of the overhedged position was all accounted for in the first quarter. So we wouldn’t expect a big impact from come from that in the second quarter. Cost on a monthly basis for the take-or-pay will impact which is about $4 million to $5 million like you said. So I do think that is certainly net-net we should expect lower cost from that shipping. Obviously, shipping is all about sometimes as well how our mix of product gets sold and which product catalog supply chains et cetera. But overall, we do expect more efficiency in our fleet than we would have experienced in the first quarter. So, I think those are probably the big ones that you’ve identified and there’s nothing else that that would tell us, so anything else to factor in.

Matthew Blair: Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander of Jefferies. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst: Hey, good morning. This is Kevin Augustine [ph] on for Laurence. So just with gas restrictions easing into Q2, I guess how do you expect operating rates to sort of evolve over the year. I’m just trying to get a sense of you know how would you expect inventories to go directionally? And then I guess sort of the puts and takes on pricing. I’m just trying to get them big baseline pricing for ’24 and ’25 and I guess how you can reasonably reach mid-cycle pricing conditions. So, yes just basically operating rates just how do you expect that to evolve?

Rich Sumner: Yes, I think — our overall global operating rates is kind of in this 65% not factors and a whole bunch of what happens if China’s low operating rates and includes low operating rates in Iran. We do typically see the Q. 2Q, 3Q periods likely being the higher quarters and then Q4 and Q1 being the lower period. So, when you average it out, it always gets to that 65% operating rate level. Demand continues to be relatively stable across traditional chemical applications and we see reasonably positive demand on the energy applications. So again, we kind of move back to a — the industry is growing by 2 million to 3 million tons other than cheap. They are that Malaysia plant that’s coming. We would put that late this year, possibly even into next year.

So we don’t really see that impacting the market in 2024. And G3 is relatively balanced like we said, with Trinidad. So we don’t see operating rates really leading to a big swing in inventories and drawing down methanol prices today. But that’s something, we’ll continue to watch. And we see 2024 being relatively balanced through the year.

Unidentified Analyst: Okay. Got it. Thank you. And if I could just sneak one more in, I guess prices largely rising. I guess how do you expect discount rates to evolve in 2024

Rich Sumner: Well, I think what you see is that typically, contracts are done annually. And so we’ve had — Q1 would be our first quarter of resetted discounts in our portfolio. So that typically will last through the year. And then again, you have another recontracting period, which there will be an adjustment. So we really are focused more on the average realized price. China is pricing at 300 levels today, then — and we’re realizing $350 per tonne — we’re happy with the way our portfolio is performing, and we would expect that that holding all else equal, that would stay the same.

Unidentified Analyst: Understood. Thank you.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] And your next question comes from the line of Nelson Ng from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Q – Nelson Ng: Great. Thanks. And good morning, everyone. So you touched on methanol as a marine fuel earlier. I know green methanol is pretty expensive, but with methanol as marine fuel kind of ramping up? Is interest in low carbon methanol picking up? And I guess, from your perspective, are you mainly producing low carbon methanol through the purchase of RNG in North America?