Methanex Corporation (NASDAQ:MEOH) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Rich Sumner: Yes, I’ll give you like — I know that when we originally came out with our estimate our estimate was based on the major lead-time and critical item was the manufacture of the bricks. We have been able to expedite the manufacture of those bricks and we do expect those to be air freighted to us and on site in Louisiana before the end of the second quarter. Now, that’s one of the workstreams is the is the materials and the repair of the of the ATR. The other things we have to do is embed all of our learnings from the root cause analysis as well as we’re going to complete a comprehensive review of all the systems that have yet to be tested through the startup. So, all of those work streams are going to be really, really important.

What we are seeing is a lot of good progress and that’s why we’re confident for the third quarter restart. We’re not going to set exact date here because it’s all about safety and quality and we’re going to get this right. So, but hopefully that helps provide a bit more color.

Steve Hansen: So it does in the range, just to be clear as we start up in Q3 and it sounds like the actual tonnes won’t hit the income statement though until Q4. Is that when think about it?

Rich Sumner: It’s give-or-take. That’s probably the way to think of it, yes.

Steve Hansen: Okay. Appreciate it. And then just — Jim, if I may just circling back on a bunch of your commentary in the MD&A about catalyst in Chile and some things you’re planning down there. It doesn’t sound like that changes too much but you just want to maybe give us a recap on exactly what’s happening and how that’s going to impact future production? It sounds like there’s going to be some enhanced production benefits over the catalyst points and stuff?

Rich Sumner: Yes. So I think if you look this, I mean that Chile for us is — this last few quarters have been really positive. It’s the first time where we have — we’ve been operating those plants at full operating rates. And this was also a period where when we went to contract gas. We had probably — we’re over contracted for gas from Argentina, which is great. So now, we still have the period where there’s export restrictions in the winter months, and so we’re coming to the end of April here. And as we come to the end of April, we’ll wind up producing out of one plant at around 70% rates that will be based on all of gas from Chile. And during this period, one of the restrictions, if you see the quarter that we were probably about 25,000 tonnes less than what the capacity numbers would say.

And that’s because of catalyst unit decline in on one of the units there. So we’re going to — that’s the work that we’ll complete during this period. And when we restart and we’re working on getting gas now for the same period next year, we’d be able to achieve that higher production. So you have the positive story on Chile and we’re going to continue to work on how we can shorten these time frames for the winter period and also a contract on multiple years of gas.

Steve Hansen: Appreciate the color. Thanks.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Ben Isaacson of Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Q –Unidentified Analyst: Good morning, everyone. This is actually Victor Zamin [ph], jumping onto Ben. So Rich, how confident are you with your production guidance in New Zealand? The Q1 operating rates were below the average for the last few years and we know some of it was maintenance driven but can you clarify the magnitude of a possible reduction in your production guidance? And if the gas travels continue, what is the run rate we should think of going forward?

Rich Sumner: Thanks Victor. So yes, we have our guidance is 1 million tonnes to 1.1 million tonnes for the year. During the quarter, we operated two of our plants at less than full rates. And then towards the end of the quarter we did — one of the plants down for planned, there was planned maintenance in the gas processing in the fields which we kind of we indicated previously. So we did take one of the plants down and we’re looking to bring that plant back online. But you’re right, there — with the production out of the existing fields, we’ve been pointing to is something that we’re monitoring really closely. So we’re working with our — with all of the entire which are our main gas suppliers and they’re really focused on how they can get better performance out of the wells.

What’s encouraging as well is OMV is committed to a bigger drilling campaign later in the year, which we think is really positive in the medium-term. So we’re going to continue. I don’t have a revised estimate today but that’s something we’re going to continue to monitor and I think a run rate, it’s hard to give you sort of direction of what would we reset to, because it’s all about the what’s happening in the fields and the work that’s happening with our key suppliers there. So we’ll continue to update as things progress and let you know, if there’s any changes to the guidance. In the medium to longer-term, it’s been a positive change. When we think about the government there, the new government is clearly more positive and more — let’s say, more supportive of the gas industry and the important role that gas plays in the energy mix.

So we think that that’s positive in the medium to long-term and that’s could be a better framework for investment. But again, we’re going to have to see that how that takes place as well. So, we’ll continue to give you our guidance and our outlook but as we move through different quarters here.

Q –Unidentified Analyst: No, that makes sense. Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair of TPH. Your line is open.

Matthew Blair: Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. What are your expectations on China’s MTO market for Q2? I think we’re seeing less turnaround activity planned, but then we’re also seeing just lower MTO margins. So what does that mean for overall MTO utilization?