Medpace Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MEDP) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

August Troendle: Cancellations were in a good range, well within our usual range. I don’t know if that’s driving any particular — we had a spike in 2022 but things came down after — maybe after first quarter to a reasonable rate in the Q2 through Q4. And as far as I — we kind of expect them to stay in that usual range of less than 4.5%.

Kevin Brady: Yeah, the expectation for ’24 is it stays within our normal range.

Jack Wallace: Thank you. That’s helpful. And then the comments you made earlier, August, about the kind of acceleration of decisions potentially just around funding and the like. But I did notice that your customers out of your top 10 look like they were down sequentially in the quarter in terms of revenue, and I wasn’t sure if that comp was any more at that cohort or if there’s anything else to call out with that revenue trend because it does sound like everything you’re saying is that things are going well and continue to get better and expected to get even better than that. So I just wasn’t sure if there was anything to call out from a customer cohort standpoint? Thank you.

August Troendle: No, I really don’t have anything. Of course, if you — if the smaller clients are starting to unfreeze, eventually that leads to proportional reduction in top 10 revenue because you get other newer clients coming in. But I think it’s too early to expect that but I don’t make anything out of it.

Jack Wallace: Excellent. Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

Operator: Thank you. And one moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Eric Coldwell with Baird. Your line is now open.

Eric Coldwell: Thanks. Good morning. First question, just hoping for an update on the labs business and maybe early clinical, just — you recently made some internal expansions, brought some work in-house microbiology, certain parts of pathology, I believe. I was just curious about the traction there and ability to cross-sell those new solutions?

Jesse Geiger: Yeah, Eric, it’s Jesse. The lab is growing nicely along with the business. And the expansions in terms of investments in the lab, we’ve been kind of around the globe with different parts of our geography needing expansions, which for the lab tend to be on a more a step basis. It’s not as linear every year but we outgrow areas. And we’re always looking at the full suite of offerings, whether that’s standing up a specific test or an essay or bringing in wholesale capabilities. And the things we’ve invested in recently and things we’ve added have been off to a good start.

Eric Coldwell: Good to hear. Next question, revenue phasing. So a bit of a setup here, maybe wonky, but hopefully you can muscle through it with me. So on one hand, really tough comps going into ’24. I mean, the first half of last year, you grew over 31%. At the same time, 15% revenue guidance, consistent, very good, excellent compared to the peer group. I’m just curious, 26%, 27% growth in the fourth quarter, do we drop immediately here in the first quarter and then recover or not recover but reaccelerate in the back half as the funding and the demand is strong and you think things are going to pick up? There was a mention of a better fourth quarter or do you start stronger and phase down through the year? I’m just trying to get a sense on how to model this revenue phasing, given, one, tough comps but, two, the most recent quarter, you grew nearly 27%. So where do we go here in Q1 and then phase through the year?

Kevin Brady: Yeah, Eric, this is Kevin. I think as you think about the quarters and you know that we’re — our quarters can be very lumpy even from a revenue perspective. And so there’s nothing that I would call out necessarily specifically in terms of do we see an acceleration in Q1 and a drop-off? Or do we kind of see steady state throughout the quarter and you see sequential growth throughout the quarters? I guess I don’t know the answer to that, as August had mentioned, if things do pick up, there’s a possibility that you start to see some acceleration in the fourth quarter and into 2025. But nothing specific to call out. I do think the first quarter, from a margin perspective, it’s likely to be better than the balance of the year, similar to what we saw this year just because some of the wage inflation pressures will pick up again and the end of the first quarter, beginning of the second quarter this year. But nothing else specific to call out on that front, Eric.

Eric Coldwell: Okay. The market has been extremely focused on this GLP-1 category. And it’s — we hear a lot about the big pharmas that are active in that space but there are lots of trials out there and Medpace has a notable history in metabolic. I’m just curious, are you seeing some trial demand in GLP-1s? Are you participating in that market? Is it a contributor to any of your win rates or your RFPs? I’m just trying to get a sense on how impactful that’s been, if at all, to this point.

August Troendle: Yeah. Not. We’re — not really have much of any exposure to GLP-1 directly. Obesity overall, a little bit more but GLP-1s are largely a large pharma phenom in terms of dollar spend, and so have not been a meaningful part of our revenue now.