In a big year for initial public offerings (IPOs), with Uber, Lyft, Pinterest and Zoom, to name just a few, already having gone public and more companies waiting in the wings, it is ironic that it is not a tech company, but a food company, Beyond Meat Inc (NASDAQ: BYND), that has managed to deliver the most dazzling post-IPO performance of any of the listings. As the stock increased seven-fold, investors who were able to get into the stock at the offering price have been enriched, but those who jumped on the bandwagon later have also reaped extraordinary returns. The speed and magnitude of the stock price rise has left many wondering whether investors have over reached and whether a correction is around the corner.
The Meatless Meat Company!
The Company: Let’s take a look at what Beyond Meat’s products are and the market opening it is exploiting, before diving into a story and valuation for the company. The company, headquartered in Southern California, and founded in 2009, makes makes plant-based (pea protein) products that mimic burgers and ground meat in taste, texture and aroma. In the prospectus that it filed leading up to its IPO, the company argues that its production process is revolutionary and new, and is responsible for its capacity to replicate animal-based meats.
The Competitors: While Beyond Meat is a leader right now in the specialized sub-category of meatless meats, it faces a formidable competitor in Impossible Foods, another young start-up producing its own plant-based versions of meat-like products. Since it is very likely, especially after Beyond Meat’s explosive market debut, that Impossible Foods will be going public soon, it is inevitable that there will be comparisons between the two companies. While I have done my own taste test, taste is in the mouth of the beholder, and this article perhaps has the most even-handed comparison of the two companies’ products.
Both companies have also adopted similar strategies of enlisting fast-food companies as product adopters, with Impossible Foods showing up on Burger King (Impossible Whopper) and White Castle menus, and Beyond Meat countering with TGI Friday’s, Carl’s Jr. and Red Robin. Other companies are taking note, including companies like Amy’s Kitchen, a long standing producer of organic and vegan offerings, and companies like Tyson Foods and Perdue that derive the bulk of their revenues from meat, but see opportunity in this new market.
The Drivers: Both Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods have been helped by a shift away from meat to meatless alternatives, and that trend has been driven by three factors:
Health: While the research on the health consequences of eating meat continues, it has become part of conventional wisdom that meat-based diets (and red meat in particular) are associated with a greater risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer. This link provides a fairly balanced account of whether this belief is true, but for better or worse, it has led some meat eaters to cut back and sometimes top consuming meat.
Environment: As climate change and environmental concerns rise to the top of concerns for some, they are feeling the pressure to shift away from meat, in general, and beef, in particular, because of its environmental footprint. I am not an environmental scold, but I don’t think that there is any debate that meat-based diets puts a greater pressure on the environment
Taste: Until recently, shifting away from a meat-based diet also meant giving up the taste and texture of meat, since most meat substitutes did not come close. As companies like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods are showing, plant-based alternatives are getting better at mimicking real meat, and for those who are attached to the texture and taste of meat, that is making a difference in their diet decisions.
None of these three factors are likely to fade away. In fact, I think that we can safely assume that they will only get stronger over time, accelerating the shift from meat to meatless alternatives.
We may use your email to send marketing emails about our services. Click here to read our privacy policy.
Market Sizing
All of the talk about the shift to vegan and vegetarian diets can sometimes obscure two basic facts about this market and its underlying trends:
The meatless meat market is still small, relative to the overall meat market: In 2018, the meatless meat market had sales of $1-$5 billion, depending on how broadly you define meatless markets and the geographies that you look at. Defined as meatless meats, i.e., the products that Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods offer, it is closer to the lower end of the range, but inclusive of other meat alternatives (tofu, tempeh etc.) is at the upper end. No matter which end of the range you go with, it is small relative to the overall meat market that is in excess of $250 billion, just in the US, and closer to a trillion, if you expand it globally, in 2018. In fact, while the meat market has seen slow growth in the US and Europe, with a shift from beef to chicken, the global meat market has been growing, as increasing affluence in Asia, in general, and China, in particular, has increased meat consumption, Depending on your perspective on Beyond Meats, that can be bad news or good news, since it can be taken by detractors as a sign that the overall market for meatless meats is not very big and by optimists that there is plenty of room to grow.
It is still a niche market: Meatless meat products have made their deepest inroads in urban and affluent populations and its allure is greatest with former meat-eaters rather than lifelong vegetarians, who don’t crave either the taste or texture of meat. The plus is that this market has significant buying power, but the minus is that urban, well-to-do millennials can eat only so much.
The big question that we face is in estimating how much the shift towards vegan and vegetarian diets will continue, driven by health reasons or environmental concern (or guilt). There is also a question of whether some governments may accelerate the shift away from meat-based diets, with policies and subsidies. Given this uncertainty, it is not surprising that the forecasts for the size of the meatless meat market vary widely across forecasters. While they all agree that the market will grow, they disagree about the end number, with forecasts for 2023 ranging from $5 billion at the low end to $8 billion at the other extreme. Beyond Meat, in its prospectus, uses the expansion of non-dairy milk(soy, flax, almond mild) in the milk market as its basis, to estimate the market for meatless meat to be $35 billion in the long term.
Beyond Meat Inc (NASDAQ: BYND): Story and Valuation
History: At the time of its public offering, Beyond Meat had all of the characteristics of a young company, not much separated from its start up days, with revenues of $87.9 million, operating losses of $26.5 million and a common equity of -$121.8 million. Its first earnings report, delivered to a rapturous market response, reported a tripling of revenues and a narrowing of operating losses, but even with it incorporated, the company remains a small, money losing company.
The Story: To value young companies, I first have to put my optimist hat on, and with it firmly in place, my story for Beyond Meat is that it is catching the front end of a significant shift towards vegan and vegetarian-based diets. The key parts of my story are below:
Total market for meatless meats will grow significantly: I see the total market for meatless meats growing from just over $1 billion in 2018 to $12 billion by 2028. While that is less than the $35 billion that Beyond Meat’s back-of-the-envelope estimate delivers, it is closer to the upper end of the range of forecasts that you have for this market.
With Beyond Meat capturing a significant market share: As the market grows, the number of players will increase, but I see Beyond Meats capturing a 25% market share of this market, building on its early entry into the market and brand name recognition, partly from its fast food connections.
While delivering operating profits similar to the large US food processing companies: Over the next five years, I see pre-tax operating margins improving towards the 13.22% that US food processing business delivered in 2018, built largely on economies of scale and pricing power.
And reinvesting a lot less, in delivering that growth: While Beyond Meat generates about a dollar in revenue per dollar in invested capital right now, I will assume that it will be able to use technology as its ally to invest more efficiently in the future. Specifically, I will assume that the company will generate $3 in revenue for every dollar in invested capital, about double what the typical US food processing company is able to generate.
Is there risk in this investment? Absolutely, and you may be surprised that my cost of capital is only 7.46%, but that reflects my assessment of risk in this investment, as a going concern and as part of a diversified portfolio. As a money-losing company that will require about $500 million in capital over the next four years to deliver on its potential, there remains a significant chance of failure, and I estimate the probability of failure to be 15%.
The Valuation: With the story in place, the valuation follows and the picture below captures the ingredients of value:
With my story, which I believe reflects an upbeat story for the company, the value that I obtain for its equity is $3.3 billion, yielding a value per share of about $47. At the end of June 10, when I completed my valuation, the stock price was close to $170, well above my estimated value. What the stock dropped almost $41 on June 11 to $127/share, it still remained over valued.
What if? As with any young company, the value of Beyond Meat is driven almost entirely by the story you tell about the company, and in this case, that story revolves around two key inputs. The first is the revenue that you believe the company can generate, once mature, and that reflects how big you think the market for meatless meats will get and Beyond Meat’s market share of the market. The second is its profitability at that point, which is a function of how much pricing power you believe the company will have. While I have assumed that Beyond Meat will deliver about $3 billion in revenues in 2028, with an operating margin of 13.22%, your story for the company can lead you to very different estimates for one or both numbers:
The shaded cells represent break even points, where you could justify buying Beyond Meat at the price ($127) it was trading at on June 11, 2019. Put differently, if your story for the meatless meat market and Beyond Meat’s place in it leads you to revenues of $5 billion or higher with an operating margin of 20%, you should be a value investor in the company.
Macro Bets and Micro Value
As you can see from the what-if analysis on Beyond Meat’s value, the value that you obtain for Beyond Meat is determined mostly by how large you believe that market for meatless meats will end up being. In fact, there are some investors whose primary reason for investing in Beyond Meat is as a bet on a macro trend towards vegan and vegetarian diets. That said, it is worth remembering that investors don’t get pay offs from making the right macro bets, but from the micro vehicles (individual investments) that they use as proxies for those bets. To get the pay off from a correct macro call, there are two additional assessments that investors have to make:
Industry structure: A growing market may not translate into high value businesses, if it is crowded and intensely competitive. That market will deliver high revenue growth, but with low or no profitability, and no pathway to sustainable profits and value added. In contrast, a growing market where there are significant barriers to entry and a few big winners can result in high-value companies with large market share and unscalable moats.
Winners and Losers: Assuming that there is potential for value creation in a market, investors have to pick the companies that are most likely to win in that market. That is difficult to do, when you are looking at young companies in a young market, but there is no way around making that judgment. In a post from 2015, I argued that in big (or potentially big) markets, you can expect companies to be collectively over valued early in the game.
In my Beyond Meat Inc (NASDAQ: BYND) valuation, I have implicitly made assumptions about both these components, by first allowing operating margins to converge on those of large food processing companies and then making Beyond Meat one of the winners in the meatless meat market, by giving it a 25% market share. My defense of these assumptions is simple. I believe that the meatless meat market will evolve like the broader food business, with a few big players dominating, with similar competitive advantages including brand name, economies of scale and access to distribution systems.
I also believe that Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods, as front runners in this market, will use their access to capital to scale up quickly. Their use of fast food chains feeds into this strategy, with bulk sales increasing revenues quickly, allowing for economies of scale, and name-brand offerings (Impossible Whopper at Burger Kind, Beyond Famous Star burger at Carl’s Jr.) helping improve brand name recognition. I will undoubtedly have to revisit these assumptions as the market evolves and some of you may disagree with me strongly on one or both assumptions. If so, please do download the spreadsheet and make your best judgments to derive your value for the company.
A Trading Play
Early in a company’s life, it is the pricing game that dominates and it is futile to use fundamentals to try to explain a stock price or day-to-day changes. This table, from one of my presentations on corporate life cycles, illustrates how investors and trades view companies as they move through the life cycle.
For a young company like Beyond Meat Inc (NASDAQ: BYND), making the transition from start-up to young growth, it is all pricing all the time, with stories about market size driving the pricing,. This trading phenomenon is exacerbated by the fact that it is one of the few pure plays on a macro trend, i.e., a shift in diets away from meat to plant-based options. That leads me to two conclusions. The first is an unexceptional one and it is that you will see wide swings in the stock price on a day to day basis, for little or no reason. That is a feature of priced stocks, not a bug, as mood and momentum shift for no perceptible reasons. The second is that selling short on a stock like this one (small, with a small float) is a dangerous game, since you are unlikely to have time as your ally, and while you may be right in the long term, you may bankrupt yourself before you are vindicated.
Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal!
It’s the revolution reshaping every industry on the planet.
From driverless cars to medical breakthroughs, AI is on the cusp of a global explosion, and savvy investors stand to reap the rewards.
Here’s why this is the prime moment to jump on the AI bandwagon:
Exponential Growth on the Horizon: Forget linear growth – AI is poised for a hockey stick trajectory.
Imagine every sector, from healthcare to finance, infused with superhuman intelligence.
We’re talking disease prediction, hyper-personalized marketing, and automated logistics that streamline everything.
This isn’t a maybe – it’s an inevitability.
Early investors will be the ones positioned to ride the wave of this technological tsunami.
Ground Floor Opportunity: Remember the early days of the internet?
Those who saw the potential of tech giants back then are sitting pretty today.
AI is at a similar inflection point.
We’re not talking about established players – we’re talking about nimble startups with groundbreaking ideas and the potential to become the next Google or Amazon.
This is your chance to get in before the rockets take off!
Disruption is the New Name of the Game: Let’s face it, complacency breeds stagnation.
AI is the ultimate disruptor, and it’s shaking the foundations of traditional industries.
The companies that embrace AI will thrive, while the dinosaurs clinging to outdated methods will be left in the dust.
As an investor, you want to be on the side of the winners, and AI is the winning ticket.
The Talent Pool is Overflowing: The world’s brightest minds are flocking to AI.
From computer scientists to mathematicians, the next generation of innovators is pouring its energy into this field.
This influx of talent guarantees a constant stream of groundbreaking ideas and rapid advancements.
By investing in AI, you’re essentially backing the future.
The future is powered by artificial intelligence, and the time to invest is NOW.
Don’t be a spectator in this technological revolution.
Dive into the AI gold rush and watch your portfolio soar alongside the brightest minds of our generation.
This isn’t just about making money – it’s about being part of the future.
So, buckle up and get ready for the ride of your investment life!
Act Now and Unlock a Potential 10,000% Return: This AI Stock is a Diamond in the Rough (But Our Help is Key!)
The AI revolution is upon us, and savvy investors stand to make a fortune.
But with so many choices, how do you find the hidden gem – the company poised for explosive growth?
That’s where our expertise comes in.
We’ve got the answer, but there’s a twist…
Imagine an AI company so groundbreaking, so far ahead of the curve, that even if its stock price quadrupled today, it would still be considered ridiculously cheap.
That’s the potential you’re looking at. This isn’t just about a decent return – we’re talking about a 10,000% gain over the next decade!
Our research team has identified a hidden gem – an AI company with cutting-edge technology, massive potential, and a current stock price that screams opportunity.
This company boasts the most advanced technology in the AI sector, putting them leagues ahead of competitors.
It’s like having a race car on a go-kart track.
They have a strong possibility of cornering entire markets, becoming the undisputed leader in their field.
Here’s the catch (it’s a good one): To uncover this sleeping giant, you’ll need our exclusive intel.
We want to make sure none of our valued readers miss out on this groundbreaking opportunity!
That’s why we’re slashing the price of our Premium Readership Newsletter by a whopping 70%.
For a ridiculously low price of just $29, you can unlock a year’s worth of in-depth investment research and exclusive insights – that’s less than a single restaurant meal!
Here’s why this is a deal you can’t afford to pass up:
• Access to our Detailed Report on this Game-Changing AI Stock: Our in-depth report dives deep into our #1 AI stock’s groundbreaking technology and massive growth potential.
• 11 New Issues of Our Premium Readership Newsletter: You will also receive 11 new issues and at least one new stock pick per month from our monthly newsletter’s portfolio over the next 12 months. These stocks are handpicked by our research director, Dr. Inan Dogan.
• One free upcoming issue of our 70+ page Quarterly Newsletter: A value of $149
• Bonus Reports: Premium access to members-only fund manager video interviews
• Ad-Free Browsing: Enjoy a year of investment research free from distracting banner and pop-up ads, allowing you to focus on uncovering the next big opportunity.
• 30-Day Money-Back Guarantee: If you’re not absolutely satisfied with our service, we’ll provide a full refund within 30 days, no questions asked.
Space is Limited! Only 1000 spots are available for this exclusive offer. Don’t let this chance slip away – subscribe to our Premium Readership Newsletter today and unlock the potential for a life-changing investment.
Here’s what to do next:
1. Head over to our website and subscribe to our Premium Readership Newsletter for just $29.
2. Enjoy a year of ad-free browsing, exclusive access to our in-depth report on the revolutionary AI company, and the upcoming issues of our Premium Readership Newsletter over the next 12 months.
3. Sit back, relax, and know that you’re backed by our ironclad 30-day money-back guarantee.
Don’t miss out on this incredible opportunity! Subscribe now and take control of your AI investment future!
No worries about auto-renewals! Our 30-Day Money-Back Guarantee applies whether you’re joining us for the first time or renewing your subscription a year later!
I work for one of the largest independent financial publishers in the world – representing over 1 million people in 148 countries.
We’re independently funding today’s broadcast to address something on the mind of every investor in America right now…
Should I put my money in Artificial Intelligence?
Here to answer that for us… and give away his No. 1 free AI recommendation… is 50-year Wall Street titan, Marc Chaikin.
Marc’s been a trader, stockbroker, and analyst. He was the head of the options department at a major brokerage firm and is a sought-after expert for CNBC, Fox Business, Barron’s, and Yahoo! Finance…
But what Marc’s most known for is his award-winning stock-rating system. Which determines whether a stock could shoot sky-high in the next three to six months… or come crashing down.
That’s why Marc’s work appears in every Bloomberg and Reuters terminal on the planet…
And is still used by hundreds of banks, hedge funds, and brokerages to track the billions of dollars flowing in and out of stocks each day.
He’s used this system to survive nine bear markets… create three new indices for the Nasdaq… and even predict the brutal bear market of 2022, 90 days in advance.
