McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Ian F. Borden: Good morning Jon, let me start on that one. And maybe just to give a bit of texture to my answer, I’ll talk about it in a couple of pieces. I’ll start with the U.S. and then talk a little bit about IOM but maybe with a focus on Europe. I mean, I think in the U.S., we would say we’re past the inflation peak and kind of heading on that downward slope. But certainly, we had high inflation, mid-teens in 2022 from a food and paper perspective. I think in 2023, we think our food and paper inflation is going to be kind of mid to high single digits. So still obviously very elevated from where it’s been for a long time. And so in combination with that, you’ve also got energy prices that are up and interest rates and things like that, that are impacting us.

I think if you move to IOM with a focus on Europe, I think we’re still working through the peak period of inflation. I don’t think we think inflation will — in Europe we will start to ease probably until mid-2023. In fact, we’ll see some markets in Europe with higher levels of inflation in 2023 than we saw in 2022. And so I would say, on an IOM basis for 2023, we probably expect food and paper inflation to be kind of in that mid-teens, not substantially lower than what we saw in 2022. So I think that gives you an indication of the level of the inflationary pressure. Of course, energy prices in Europe, maybe while they haven’t hit the peak, as I was talking about earlier because we’ve had a warmer winter in Europe so far, I mean the underlying tensions aren’t fully resolved yet, and inflation levels and energy prices are certainly up significantly where they were 12 months or so ago.

And so I think from a pricing perspective, what we’re trying to do is be very disciplined and be very consumer-led in our thinking. You may have heard me talk in the third quarter call just a little bit about the investments we’ve made over the last couple of years to really improve the tools, the data, and the analytics that our advisers use to provide recommendations to the business. Of course, as always, our franchisees make their own pricing decisions. But I think as Chris talked about, we feel good that we’re being very disciplined around the pricing we’re taking. We’re using a long-term mindset, knowing that what we want to continue to do is drive strong top line momentum so that we have that momentum through these pressures and then, of course, out of the pressures and begin to kind of recover margins and gain leverage as we go forward.

And we think our system has done a really good job on that because when we look at our value for money and affordability scores, we continue to maintain those leadership positions. And so I think 2023 is kind of a moment in time where we’re seeing kind of the peaks of those pressures but feel really good as we get out of 2023 that the momentum that we’re going to continue to drive will keep us in a really strong position to start gaining leverage again.

Christopher J. Kempczinski: Yes. I just would add, I mean, I’ve seen some of the industry reports on the momentum heading into 2023, and we feel good about how our business is performing. But I think Ian touched on one thing, just keep in mind, we’ve got Omicron, that’s a tailwind. We’ve got good weather, not just in Europe, but there’s favorable weather in the U.S. So there are some things there that are helping, I think, industry-wide, but we feel very good about the momentum we’re starting the year off with.

Mike Cieplak: Our next question is from Andrew Charles with Cowen.

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