McCormick & Company, Incorporated (NYSE:MKC) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator: Our next question is from the line of Alexia Howard with Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.

Alexia Howard: First question is on China. You called out the fact that the China lockdowns and disruption over there pressured sales this quarter. Is that getting better? And what should we expect in Q2? And then I have a follow-up.

Lawrence Kurzius: Well, of course, China was really complicated story this quarter because our first quarter begins in December. And in December, the country was still largely in lockdown — now they got a train going behind the ground. The country is largely locked down in December, then they reopened and they had a very concentrated pandemic period or a huge proportion of the population. I wonder if you’ve lost — but a question of the population got COVID. So that was quite a big impact on McCormick. We thought that post-Chinese New Year would probably begin to see a recovery. And I think we were seeing that unfold after Chinese New Year in a positive way. And in second quarter, we’re going to lap the lockdowns from last year, and we’re expecting a significant recovery in China.

As we go through the second quarter, we’re certainly going to have double-digit growth compared to a year ago unless there’s some other exogenous shock. The question on that double digit is just what the first number is, but it’s going to be big.

Alexia Howard: Great. And then…

Lawrence Kurzius: Brendon?

Brendan Foley: No, I just think, Alexia, we’re optimistic that this normalization will continue to unfold in the market. We expect to see much of that come through in Q2.

Alexia Howard: Great. And sorry about the noise there. We’ve got some very impatient taxi drivers out here on the New York City street apparently. A quick follow-up. Inventory, retailer inventories were a big upset last quarter in terms of the year-on-year changes. Is that now behind us? And are you seeing any shifts, particularly in North America relative to the Nielsen data that we’re seeing, consumer takeaway versus shipments?

Lawrence Kurzius: Well, I said that we thought that this would be behind us in the first quarter, and that’s largely how it’s played out.

Operator: The next questions are from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Robert Moskow: For modeling purposes, I wanted to know the phasing of the comparisons on your incentive comp. I couldn’t quite tell in first quarter whether it was flat year-over-year? Or it was a — and also for the rest of the year, it’s a big number for the full year. Can you tell us how to think about it in the second and third…

Lawrence Kurzius: I’m going to let Mike go for this one.

Mike Smith: Yes. It was a relatively small favorable first quarter, but it will build during the year, as we said on the last conference call. So third and fourth quarter, second half will be significantly higher. That’s why you’ll see the impact.

Robert Moskow: Okay. When you said favorable, so it was favorable in first…

Mike Smith: Last year. Yes, slightly unfavorable at first. But over the next three quarters, really the third and fourth and second half will be — that’s where you’ll see the incrementality versus…

Robert Moskow: Right, right, right. Okay. And I guess a similar question on China. I remember you called out an $0.11 per share impact in 2Q last year. So can I assume you’re going to get all that back and more? And then in third, was there also an impact? It was never quantified, but it must be significant, too.

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