Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (NYSE:MEC) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Todd Butz: No, I wouldn’t characterize it in that frame. A lot of the new business won again that was specifically quoted and estimated to be at Hazel Park doesn’t really launch until midyear and even to the back half. And some of those volumes really don’t hit their maturity until even the beginning of 2025. The work that we slated internally to move is still on pace. It’s moving in the right cadence. And so we wouldn’t make any changes on that front.

Operator: We now have Larry De Maria, William Blair.

Larry De Maria: A few questions. First, maybe dress is, I don’t think so, but $5 million to $7 million underabsorbed overhead costs, that’s up from, I think, $3 million to $5 million previously. What is driving that delta?

Todd Butz: Yes, it did change lately. Certainly, there’s been some timing changes from a customer launch perspective. A few of them we thought were going to start sooner rather than later. And so some of that’s moved a little further into 2024. And we have a couple of large ones that are really set to launch in the back half of ’24. But even some of the smaller ones, unfortunately, the timing from the customer has in the line, and that’s why we’ve seen a little more drag on the P&L here in the coming quarter or two.

Larry De Maria: So does that present any kind of risk next year that we see continued push-out, especially if the macro is soft? Or how good do we feel about executing on, a, the run rate? And b, remind us what the full year number should be that we should be modeling?

Todd Butz: We feel very good, yes. I mean I think some of the things are just timing of some of the source and some of it’s moving from other suppliers. It’s just the timing of how they’re managing their supply chain. It’s really been an impetus. And then some design things. Certainly, when they move product, they’d like to improve it and make other changes. I think a lot of that is behind us. So I feel confident that the launches now, as we see them, will come to fruition. We have said at the Investor Day that next year’s sales, we think, are between $50 million and $60 million. And for the full year — and really, that’s going to be more back half loaded. Again, we think we’re going to — we do believe we’re going to exit 2024, when we think of that fourth quarter, with a run rate of $100 million annually.

Larry De Maria: Great. So believe me this, Jag talked about growing in ’24, right, and getting that — the big negative, obviously, is CV down 18%. You can get that to flat. I believe you said flat CV revenue with the outsourcing, new tank production, other wins, et cetera. So you can offset the negative with CV. But then so are we taking CV flat from high level next year, CV is flat and then we’re layering on the $50 million to $60 million Hazel Park on top of that? Or just help us tie these numbers together so we can — I know you don’t have guidance, but there’s a lot of numbers and a lot of deltas, and we want to make sure things aren’t overlapping.

Jagadeesh Reddy: Yes. The $50 million to $60 million is in that number, Larry. That’s not on top. The only thing I would say on top is really the lapping of the first half revenues of MSA.

Larry De Maria: Okay. So CV and as this Hazel Park, the $50 million to $60 million Hazel Park that we’re using to offset the CV, some portion of that is non-CV also, right? So how much of the $50 million to $60 million is offsetting the CV declines? And how much of the $50 million to $60 million is non-CV?

Jagadeesh Reddy: We’re not providing that level of detail at this point in the cycle, Larry. But we’re happy to talk about our 2024 guidance [indiscernible].