MaxLinear, Inc. (NASDAQ:MXL) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Kishore Seendripu: The way we look at it is like what is the order pattern and when it resurrects itself and how is the inventory burning, the inventory levels are going down. We are beginning to see make progress and see some bookings start to increase. That has actually been positive. So obviously, the bookings are not necessarily due for Q1 or Q2, they spread over the entire year because the lead times are now well established. So I really don’t think that we can map directly from the statements at some of these players you mentioned and extrapolate to that our activities. I think what changes in our — what happens in our direction is really about when that inventory really depletes and the orders return to some normalcy.

Quinn Bolton: I mean, I guess if that activity is happening, it obviously makes for an extended bottom, which I think you’re going through now, but I would think at some point the snapback be pretty steep if guys are just holding off, waiting for matching funds. But I guess right now, I assume, lead times are fairly short and you don’t have evidence or strong order activity that would suggest you start to see a stronger recovery at some point, whether it’s Q2 or Q3. It sounds like visibility in broadband and connectivity is so pretty low, is that right?

Kishore Seendripu: Yes. I think the short-term visibility is one thing, but really it has to come back strong when the rationalization happens as we mentioned. And because there will be nothing in the channel to ship basically right? If that’s the extremity of the behavior of the vendors, so you’re absolutely right. And I mean, that sets up a stage for a nice — I don’t like to talk or a tailwind for 2025, if you will, right? Where we get back to being where we legitimately think we are from a Company perspective.

Quinn Bolton: Got it. And then just wanted to ask on the infrastructure side, I know you guys for a quarter or two have been talking about your Ethernet design-wins in the enterprise and SMB space. But I think if I heard the prepared script right, you’re talking about a business that could reach $100 million over the next 18 to 24 months. I just wanted to clarify that you see that that level of activity in the Ethernet because that was — that certainly, if that’s right that that was a lot bigger than what I was thinking in terms of your Ethernet opportunity, especially in that kind of timeframe.

Kishore Seendripu: Absolutely. With the products that we are pointing to very large ASP devices, we have a unique offering, there’s no competing offering in that space, in that class of product. And we have good design win pipeline that points to the revenues reaching in that order. And obviously, the revenue includes certain gateway router revenues as well, but a substantial portion is also going to be infrastructure, basically enterprise Ethernet which is the more exciting part because it provides a nice foundation but a long-term revenue cycle.

Quinn Bolton: Excellent. Thank you very much.

Kishore Seendripu: Thank, Quinn.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Suji Desilva with ROTH MKM. Please proceed with your question. David, is your line on mute?

David Williams: Hello, it’s David. Can you hear me?

Kishore Seendripu: Yes, yeah go ahead, David.

David Williams: Sorry, it sounded like called Suji.

Kishore Seendripu: It’s all right, David.

David Williams: So, just a couple of quick questions here. But Steve you guys are going to be down 62% year-on-year at the midpoint of the guidance here. How quickly can we expect to see some of these new products and wins where they begin to ramp and what do you think that contribution will be for this year from the new product side, maybe?

Steven Litchfield: Well, so, yes, you’re right. These are big annual declines. I think as inventory corrects and I think this is why a lot of investors et cetera are kind of pointing to 2025. We’ve talked a lot about 2025, so you can kind of see some normalcy in the business, if you will. But we’ve talked a lot about what those growth drivers are, I mean whether there’d be optical our Ethernet business that Kishore just spoke of. Our storage accelerators, which we spend a little bit of time, talking about our Wi-Fi business, our PON business, we’ve been seeing nice growth. We will continue to see growth in all of those areas. But naturally, it’s not as visible with some of the inventory headwinds that we have. And so, you’ll see a lot more of that, that will be delivered in 2025, but a lot of them are in the market and you will see growth.

I mean, optical is a great example where you will see growth this year from our optical business. And — but it will be much more meaningful in 2025.

David Williams: Okay. That’s fair. And I guess we kind of look across your disti and your direct customers, is there any way to size the magnitude of the excesses that are still out there? I know that the burn rate is also challenging, but just trying to understand how much is out there. And then any way to kind of parse out what the in-demand softness relative to what you just inventory excesses that need to be digested there?

Steven Litchfield: Look I mean I think we — I think I said a little earlier, but I mean, really the first half of the year is certainly still we’ve got inventory headwinds as that bleed into Q3, I don’t know, possibly. But I also think that we’ll start to get back to revenue growth as well, even though not the entirety of this inventory is completely clean out of the channel.