MaxLinear, Inc. (NASDAQ:MXL) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Ross Seymore: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question is from David Williams with The Benchmark Company. Please proceed.

David Williams : Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Kishore, maybe you could talk a little bit more about the traction you’re seeing in the in the Keystone platform and what’s the magnitude of that ramp do you think for next year? Is there any maybe just a little more color that you provide around that to help us understand that that traction in growth?

Kishore Seendripu : We don’t to the future in that sort of short timelines. But I think from where we are today, we are pilot build right now as the interop cycles continue. And hopefully next year, we are somewhere in the teens or beyond that and hopefully beyond that because that would be disappointing it is in the teens. And then, but I can talk to you in terms of three year – in a three year window could we cross a $100 million, yes, I mean, that would be a natural expectation, right? So, can we do better than that? Absolutely, that’s based on share shifts. And I think one wile card is the timing of the deployments of multiple datacenters in the transition to 100 gigabit or whether it’s 400 gig or 800 gig or 1.6 terabit on the 100 gig platform, if you will.

And so, you are counting on multiple layers coming on. Right now we have confirmed transitions from one big datacenter guy. I know that in the NVIDIA AI clusters they are deploying 100 gigabit. But you know what? It’s like we have to land into it rather than win into right now. So we are trying to win into it and as we increase the supplier base, hopefully we are one of the selected ones. But yeah, I’m not saying that we are selected or we are in it. So please don’t mistake that. I’m just trying to say, our focus is right now winning. And some good luck on the share basically, okay?

David Williams : Okay. Can you say is that progressing as you would have expected? Or is it maybe a little slower than you had hoped?

Kishore Seendripu : You know, it’s always be slower to me honestly. It’s been a few several years since we’ve been investing in the optical datacenter. And I can’t – every time, it seems slower – it’s slow for me because I’m dying with anticipation, right? So, but so far, we feel very good about where we are. And like I said, if you read the tea leaves, I should actually be more positively disposed than my forecasting will indicate to you.

Steven Litchfield : I think David, another positive, I mean you’re starting to see you know, our IP that we’ve developed in optical is starting to broaden out and we can go after AEC opportunities, AOC opportunities, and that really helps us to leverage the development that we’ve done thus far. Those are also types of programs that can ramp quicker versus some of the other transceiver platforms. Yes.

David Williams : Great color. Thanks so much. And then, maybe lastly, just on the carrier or maybe the operator side. If you look out, are you hearing anything in terms of beginning of the year of CapEx planning or is there any sense of optimism that you’re beginning to hear maybe for 2024 deployments and maybe CapEx spend?

Kishore Seendripu : You know, it’s always the hardest thing in all these years in broadband, I can tell you very clearly that, they start their process some time in Q3. And then, Q3 I don’t know anything and Q1. By the time at the end of Q1, then in sometimes they just go super aggressive as well. So but these are unique times, because there’s a lot of inventory sitting out there even if they’re going through that process, I am feeling the impact of their OpEx decisions is going to be delayed for sure, right? Because we’re going to be depleting everything the inventory. So, you won’t feel the urgency. They would come rushing towards the end of Q4 or in the middle of Q1 in the past pre-pandemic period, right? But now there is still enough inventory in the channel that it’s going to be dampened.

And so we wouldn’t be getting that signals much. But I think, but I think you should all expect that everybody is going to be tightening their belts, right? And so, it will be subdued whatever they’re going to be up to.

Operator: Our next question is from Karl Ackerman with BNP Paribas. Please proceed.

Karl Ackerman: Yes. Thank you. Hi Kishore and Steve. Just two questions.

Steven Litchfield: Hi, Karl.

Karl Ackerman: Hi. I guess, my first one, I would ask, there have been many questions on this call, sort of asking whether there are structural impairments to some of the broadband and connectivity portions of your business. So I’d like to ask specifically about your connectivity business, how much of that business today is on a rough and tough basis split between wireless and wired? I think that would be certainly helpful as we contemplate some of the content drivers that you talked about earlier on this call as it relates to Wi-Fi 7 next year as well as some of the growth opportunities today for Wi-Fi 6.

Kishore Seendripu : Okay, I would say there is little or no exposure to wireless access from a connectivity side. To the extent that we have exposure to the wireless access on the broadband connectivity side for our Wi-Fi’s offering, it’s really the telco platforms where they tend to be the gateway box where, for example, they have our fiber PON chip with our gateway processor and a Wi-Fi. And they will be, they will be what I call a input to that box that comes from a 5G access video. So very little or no exposure to wireless broadband access, okay? So if you take our data, on the wireline, we are pretty much 100% over exposured to wireline access. However, it may be, so let’s say 90% of it and 10% off it is what I call standalone router gateways that we are we started making progress towards at the beginning of the year to get revenues that are outside of the operator gateways, right?

That would be the landscape. So you should – on the practical terms you should associate 90% of our Wi-Fi connectivity reviews with our wireline broadband access gateways, okay?

Steven Litchfield: And maybe Karl, just to add on a little bit, so, don’t forget on connectivity side. We also have the Ethernet. So, while a lot of our declines in the gateway, I mean, it’s been driven by both Wi-Fi and Ethernet. One of the big things going on is we’re seeing more exposure Kishore said some commentary around what’s going on with this transition at 2.5 gig, we are seeing a lot more interest in that and we do expect to see more growth in ‘24 and ‘25 from Ethernet as well as of course, the Wi-Fi opportunities.

Karl Ackerman: That’s very helpful. And I appreciate that color. For my follow-up question, I guess, are lead times and backlog back to normal I guess pre-COVID levels, is that a fair way to think about it today? And then second, it’s nice to see the decline in inventory, but any thoughts in terms of a target level of inventory as we could manage expenses over the next couple quarters. Thank you.