We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Credit Card Stocks to Buy Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) stands against the other credit card stocks.
The market for credit card issuance services has expanded significantly over the last several years. At a CAGR of 9.2%, it will grow from $478.09 billion in 2023 to $522.22 billion in 2024, according to the Business Research Company. Over the coming years, a significant expansion in the market size for credit card issuance services is anticipated. At a CAGR of 8.3%, it will increase to $717.7 billion in 2028, as per the research. Contactless payment usage, data security concerns, cryptocurrency emergence, embedded finance, customization, and personalization are all factors contributing to the growth in the projection period.
The credit card market is still changing, mirroring changes in customer preferences and general economic conditions. According to the Q4 2023 Quarterly Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR), the average credit card debt per borrower at the end of 2023 was $6,360, a 10% rise YoY. This resulted in a total of $1.13 trillion in credit card debt in the United States the same year. Moreover, the average amount owed by households in the 90th percentile is $11,210, with higher-income households often having larger loads.
According to TransUnion, credit card usage continues to rise, with 167.2 million users expected by mid-2023, representing a substantial rise over the last three years. Furthermore, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, credit cards accounted for 31% of all payments in 2022, although less than 10% of Americans typically utilized cash, according to a December 2023 Forbes Advisor survey.
As per the Federal Reserve Board, credit card delinquency rates have been rising gradually and will reach 3.1% by the end of 2023, the highest level since 2011. Additionally, charge-offs rose in Q2 2024 from 4.16% to 4.38%, a record high of 12.5 years that hasn’t been seen since Q4 2011. Meanwhile, according to Forbes Advisor, the average credit card interest rate in March 2024 was 27.89%, putting financial strain on people with balances.
In the future, digital payment methods are expected to gain popularity; according to a survey conducted in August 2023, more than half of customers preferred digital wallets over traditional cards. This change shows that credit card companies will continue to innovate, even as concerns about interest rates and debt levels persist.
Overall, as we have also mentioned in our article, “7 Best American Bank Stocks To Buy According to Hedge Funds,” the U.S. market for digital banking platforms was estimated at $1.04 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.63% to reach $2.04 billion by 2031.
Looking forward, according to a report, credit card spending is predicted to increase in the mid-single digits by 2024, while balances will fall to the mid-to-high single digits after a substantial rise since 2022. If labor markets are steady, credit performance measures are expected to decline during 2024 and stabilize by early 2025. Despite lower inflation, key problems include resumed student debt payments, high interest rates, and growing living costs.
Yanni Koulouriotis, CFA, Vice President – Global FIG stated:
“Overall, DBRS Morningstar expects a less favorable operating environment for credit card issuers in 2024 as consumer dynamics shift and are less of tailwind to credit card issuer performance. While we expect weaker financial performance in 2024 compared to 2023, we still expect performance to be supportive of current credit ratings.”
Methodology:
We sifted through holdings of credit card ETFs and online rankings to form an initial list of 20 credit card stocks. Then we selected the 10 stocks that were the most popular among institutional investors. The stocks are ranked in ascending order of the number of hedge funds that have stakes in them, as of Q2 2024. We have used the stock’s market cap as a tie-breaker in case two or more stocks have the same number of hedge funds invested.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here)
A woman using a payment terminal at the checkout of a store showing payment products and solutions.
Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 142
Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA), the world’s second-largest credit card payment network in the world, has handled volume approaching $9 trillion in 2023. Mastercard accepts payments in more than 200 nations and handles transactions in more than 150 currencies.
Along with payment gateway services, the company offers a variety of payment options, such as credit, debit, and prepaid cards.
The credit card payment network behemoth posted strong financial results in the second quarter of 2024, with a 17% YoY increase in profit to $3.3 billion. Earnings per share excluding one-time costs were $3.59, above market projections of $3.51. In addition to exceeding market forecasts, revenue increased by 13% YoY to $6.96 billion. Growth in major international markets like Europe and Latin America, along with a solid U.S. customer base, contributed to the impressive results.
In Q2 2024, Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) disclosed that the quantity and value of transactions executed on its credit card network increased by 11% YoY. Cross-border payment volume growth of 17% and solid consumer spending were credited for the positive result.
Given its reliance on consumer health, the company is susceptible to downturns in the economy, particularly if spending is curtailed as a result of the Fed’s rate hikes. Furthermore, pressure on low-income clients may affect transaction volumes, which could jeopardize long-term expansion.
Logan Purk, technology analyst for Edward Jones, stated, “Mastercard’s results, while not perfect, should give reassurance that the spending environment remains solid,”
L1 Capital International Fund stated the following regarding Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“The share prices of Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) and Visa, both long term Fund investments, have both drifted down over recent months. There have been no dramatic developments, but there has been a general slight softening in the rate of growth of consumer spending in the U.S. and globally, a court decision rejecting Mastercard and Visa’s proposed settlement of a long-lasting dispute with U.S. merchants as well as other modest adverse regulatory developments. We continue to view Mastercard and Visa as two of the highest quality businesses in the world, and both are well placed to continue to deliver attractive, risk adjusted returns to shareholders over time.”
Charles Akre’s Akre Capital Management is the largest shareholder in the company, with 4,039,349 shares worth $1.78 billion.
Overall MA ranks 2nd on our list of the best credit card stocks to buy. While we acknowledge the potential of MA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.