Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Ambrish Srivastava : Yes. No, it does. So that means it’s come down from $1.4 billion annual run rate to $800 million, right?

Jean Hu : I don’t think the way you can think about that. It’s $1.4 billion. The first half of this year, it probably was much higher than $1.4 billion annualized run rate. And now it’s dropping much lower, right? The second half of the run rate probably is very low. Yes.

Ambrish Srivastava : Got it. Okay. Okay. That is very helpful. Then I had a follow-up for you, Matt. Looking at storage, and I don’t follow the distrib guys, but Seagate consensus has been down three quarters in a row WD, two quarters for the mass storage business. And then you throw in the bullwhip effect. So you’re seeing a much bigger impact than consensus has those guys modeled. Is that the right way in terms of timing a couple of quarters before this business comes back? And then the other businesses within data center that thanks for the clarification earlier when it is not just storage. When do those businesses — because that magnitude is less, right, in terms of no real bullwhip effect yet. So if you combine all that, should we be modeling past December, a couple of quarters of sequential declines?

Matt Murphy : Yes. So let me break that into two pieces. I think you absolutely nailed it when you talked about the end customer kind of dynamics and their trajectory versus ours, that is exactly the bullwhip effect. I mean you could actually just draw the bullwhip and you can kind of slap where we would be on that. And that’s why — and we’ve seen this historically in any business where you’re kind of one additional step removed, you tend to have more volatility, right? It’s just the way it works. So that, I think, you can expect. And again, we don’t know exactly, but we anticipate just on past experience, it’s probably a couple of quarters to work through that. And then on the other piece, which was the non-storage piece, yes, it’s inventory digestion.

I mean we’ve kind of taken a view, Ambrish, which is — and I’ve been through different scenarios in my career here on how you manage when volume — when demand drops and you can kind of work with people and manage a soft landing or you can keep shipping and then you pay the price later in a very hard way. And so our view has been, let’s get through this and get it behind us. And also get to a point where as you can — as you get your visibility up and inventory goes down and lead times turn to normal, your forecast accuracy improves. I mean I think you know that old that as well. The worst forecast you’re going to get is if somebody gives you 52 weeks of orders, you’re actually better off having a more normalized environment. So that’s really what we’re striving to do there.

And so while there is some inventory adjustment, it’s fairly normal given the shift in slope in the CapEx trajectory. And we have new products ramping. And so that probably works its way through fairly quickly as well. But we’ll have to see the exact timeframe. Like I said, it’s still a little bit of a dynamic environment.