Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (NYSE:MLM) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Joe Nolan: Hi. I just had one quick question on the aggregates volumes guidance, you provided up or down 2%. Just with that, what would be the primary drivers that you’re monitoring to drive the high end or low end? And just within that, can you talk about how the value over volume strategy might play into that?

Ward Nye: Yes, happy to. I mean here’s a good way to think of it, and this is not a bad laboratory to give it some thoughts. So, if we look in Q2, volume is down 2%. So, last year, we were at 47.7%. The year just ended 46.6%. If we’re really looking at that and saying, what were your swing markets or what are you swing factors? Value over volume was probably modestly over 1 million tons of that. So, again, if we think — what we actually had a better return for shareholders. We kept those reserves in the ground or we kept them in stockpiles. We’ll sell them another day, we’ll sell them for higher. And that was your primary driver, there was some degrees as well chronicle of market softening in degrees of residential and non-res, but the biggest piece of that was value over volume.

So, if we’re looking at what swing factors can be, as Jim pointed out, in the quarter, we saw infrastructure volumes up 6%, that wasn’t a surprise, but really it was a nice affirmation of what’s happening. So, if we continue to see public grow sensibly, if we see res start to do, but we’re not predicting it, but you can certainly see that res could have a nice recovery beginning in half two. We think that’s important. And again, as we’re looking at these mega projects, if we’re looking at non-res projects of size and of scale. Depending on how some of those play out, it doesn’t take a lot of those. I mean it could take one or two of those to really change the trajectory of degrees of volume. And obviously, we’re still having significant conversations on a number of large non-res projects in the Gulf of Mexico and if some of those go — I think those are your swing factors, Joe, as you think about volumes.

So, I hope that helped.

Joe Nolan: That’s very helpful detail. Thanks. I’ll pass it on.

Ward Nye: You bet. Take care.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question is from Adam Thalhimer from Thompson Davis. Please ask your question.

Adam Thalhimer: Hey good morning guys. Great quarter, great outlook.

Ward Nye: Thank you so much Adam. Good to hear your voice.

Adam Thalhimer: Ward, you talked about data center weakness in Q4. That surprised me. What are you seeing going forward there?

Ward Nye: Well, I’m not sure it was so much — I was talking more broadly about what some of the writers have said. I think what I was saying is, in our world, it hasn’t been as down as people would have thought. Now, keep in mind, it was against a really tough comp. So, that’s more other than anything else. But if you just look at general trade publications, they’re going to say, look, in warehousing and data center, you’re going to start to see some moderation simply because the comps were so high. I guess my point was not all markets are going to be equal. And I think when we start looking at the Southeastern, Southwestern and interestingly, these Midwestern markets, where there’s a lot of data center activity, which was why I was calling out, in particular, part of what’s happening in Nebraska and Iowa because those have been actually really resilient markets in that particular space, Adam.

So, it was something I was really calling up high degrees of weakness. It was more comps are tough and the overall commentary around that is a little bit softer than in some other areas. But again, I think we’re holding up better than most.

Adam Thalhimer: Okay. And then clients ask me this, I’ll just ask you, are we still early and you guys seeing the benefit from IIJA?

Ward Nye: Yes, I think — look, I think if we’re talking about that in innings, I mean we’re in the very early innings of that. I mean, I think as a practical matter, 2024 is really the first year that we’re going to start to see significant stone go out the gate on IIJA. So, here’s the way I would think of it, Adam. 2024 on that is going to be better than 2023. 2025 is likely to be better than 2024, and I think 2026 could be better than 2025. So, in baseball parlance, we’re not anywhere near the seventh inning stretch. I mean we’re in a very healthy spot right now, and it’s likely to be that way for a number of years.

Adam Thalhimer: Great answer. Thanks Ward.

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