Marriott International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAR) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Leeny Oberg: Sure. So thanks, Robin. As we talked about in our comments and at the Security Analyst Meeting, I think when you’ve got a deal like MGM or City Express, things can be a little lumpy in terms of the specific year-over-year rooms growth. And so, I do think it’s much more important to be looking more broadly at the two to three year CAGR sort of numbers. And there clearly with the 2.4% higher room count as a result of MGM, that’s obviously going to help 2024’s number a lot. And you saw that our 2023 number came down, although it actually went up apart from MGM compared to a quarter ago. So I think the main thing I would focus on is that, we continue to feel really good about the 5% to 5.5% net rooms growth over the 2022 through 2025 time period.

And we will obviously, as we get to full budget details, when we get to February, we’ll be more specific. But I think, again, the basic earnings equation and growth model of the company is exactly as we described in September at the Security Analyst Meeting.

Robin Farley: Okay. I guess so it sounds like you’re saying your expectations for unit growth outside of MGM for next year have not changed, right? Is that the conclusion?

Leeny Oberg: Again, as I described, we have talked about continuing to feel very confident about the three-year 5% to 5.5% and are pleased to see the 2023 number move up a quarter of a point compared to a quarter ago. But we are in the middle of that process as we speak and we’ll be able to be more specific when we get to February.

Robin Farley: Okay. Thank you very much. Thanks.

Operator: Thank you. We’ll take our next question from Richard Clarke with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Richard Clarke: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just firstly on the incentive management fees, it looks like in the North American market, down to just 23%, those look like those are down year-on-year. Is that all down to this [Hawaii] (ph) effect? Maybe you can just clarify exactly what that effect was or is there some other discretion in there about how much you’ve accrued for the quarter? And if I can add a little follow-up, I just want to know if the MGM delay has had any impact on anything other than the NUG guidance? Has that impact your EBITDA guidance for Q4 as well?

Leeny Oberg: You’re a little muddied on the actual call. So — on some of your words. So, let me try to see what I can do with what you asked. On — let’s just talk, broadly speaking on IMFs, which is to say that, overall for the company we are up meaningfully in US And Canada year-to-date Q3, $194 million compared to $167 million — sorry, to $221 million for the full year in 2022. So I would say we’re going to end up higher and meaningfully higher than in 2019. And we were impacted as we talked about from the Maui fires in our IMFs by close to $10 million, which obviously are going to impact our IMF. So when I think about the percentage of hotels that are earning incentive fees in the US and Canada, we had, let’s see, year-to-date, US and Canada is 31%, and that compares to year to date in 2022 of 26%.

And so I think from that standpoint, we’re really pleased with the margin work that’s been done in the US and frankly around the world. The only other thing I’ll point out is that, IMS for the year at $537 million year-to-date are higher than IMS for the full year in 2022 already, just through three quarters. So again, the margins there I think show really well. Was there a second question?

Tony Capuano: Yes. And then Richard, I think on your second question, if I heard it right, the way you ought to think about the brief delay of the integration of MGM is the way you described it, if I can hear you clearly, which is, that’s principally an impact on the timing of the NUG impact, the impact on fees, or EBITDA if that was your question, is de minimis.

Richard Clarke: That was my question. Thanks very much for clarifying.

Tony Capuano: You’re welcome. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. We’ll take our next question from Chad Beynon with Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Chad Beynon: Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just in terms of the group booking trends, I believe you said 9% for 2024 in terms of the number of rooms. We’re still trying to get a sense if some of the current and future bookings are deferred or catch up, or if this is becoming kind of the new norm, kind of the foundational level. So any color in terms of multi-year bookings, maybe into 2025, or if you’ve been able to kind of crack that code if this is the new base level of group? Thanks.

Leeny Oberg: So I’ll talk about a couple stats and then Tony may want to add anything kind of from a more broad perspective. Just one thing that’s worth noting is that, group is back to being about the same percentage of our business that it was pre-COVID. So very squarely, almost a quarter of the business is related to groups. So I think you are seeing it normalizing there. And the numbers that we’ve talked about in US and Canada of 14%, that’s obviously on a business that is really settled down into more normal seasonal pattern rather than still having lots of revenge travel. I think one of the interesting things is there, while some of the special corporate business has not returned in exactly the same form that it was pre-COVID, I think there is also the reality that companies are recognizing the value of getting together and are doing it in groups, maybe not in quite the same way they were doing some business transient.

So, when you look at the overall proportion of the business, it is really leisure and business transient that was swapped a little bit, while group remains quite consistent to the way it was pre-COVID.

Tony Capuano: And maybe the only other color I would add, while it doesn’t speak to 2025. In my opening remarks I talked about group revenue growth in the quarter both globally and for the US and Canada, and as Leeny and I have been traveling around the world. I mean, one of the things that’s really encouraging is this continued forward booking strength we’re seeing in group is not simply a US and Canada phenomenon. We’re seeing strong group pick up around the world.

Chad Beynon: Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Bellisario with Baird. Please go ahead.

Michael Bellisario: Thank you. Good morning. I just want to dig into group a little bit more. Could you maybe pull out corporate group meetings and incentive travel? And are you seeing the same strengths there? Is there any change maybe in the booking window that reflects some more of the layoff announcements that we’ve seen recently more broadly? Thank you.

Leeny Oberg: No particular trends of notice relative to kind of your point about more kind of some trends in companies. We do have longer group booking windows overall, which reflect the fact that people are finding that the hotels are full and that they need to get their groups on the books. So that part remains consistent. I would not say that we see any kind of notable difference between leisure group and business group, either kind of in the past several months or frankly over the last several years, there is a steady diet of both of those.