Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Neal Dingmann: Yes, I love that per share growth, it really stands out. And then my second question is just on cost, specifically. Incremental cost expectations for the next few quarters seem to be now the most topical once again. Just curious on how volatile you all believe these — that caused let’s say, for the next 2, 3, maybe even 4 quarters will continue to be. And can you continue? It seems like you’ve done a pretty good job in the past, locking in a good piece of those. I know when talking to Mike and the team. So I’m just wondering when you guys look at that, how you’re thinking about costs here for the — call it, the near term and locking in?

Lee Tillman: Yes. Maybe I’ll just provide a couple of comments and then hand over to Mike to perhaps get into some of the details of how we’re really working to mitigate those pressures in time. But when you think about cost overall, we have to bear in mind that 2022 was kind of a tale of 2 halves of the year. The first half of the year was — certainly didn’t see the level of inflationary impacts that we saw in the second half. So some of the pressure that I think we’re feeling not only the company but as a sector, in 2023 is the fact that we have the full year impact of those inflationary pressures. And our $1.9 billion to $2 billion number fully contemplates that full year impact of those inflationary pressures. I think the team has done an outstanding job being very disciplined about how we lock in both capacity and costs from our service providers. And maybe I’ll let Mike just expand a little bit on that point.

Michael Henderson: Yes. Thanks, Lee. It’s Mike here, Neal. Maybe a couple of things. How I’d maybe characterize ’23. At a high level, we’ve kind of assumed similar service cost on that fourth quarter environment. So that’s probably a good starting point for you. And maybe consistent with what we’ve highlighted previously, and we touched on this a little bit. We’re assuming 10% to 15% inflation that is built into our 2023 budget as relative to 2022. As we mentioned in the past, we’ve been working this one hard. Really, our objective was to really baseload the maintenance program kind of really try to minimize the need for spot work. A lot of benefits in doing that from safety, execution and commercial perspective. We’ve taken what I describe as a disciplined but thoughtful approach.

Our priority has been to really protect the execution side of the business and try to get access to the same high-quality providers and equipment that we were using in ’22, and I can tell you been successful there. And the majority of the folks that we’re working with in ’23 are we see folks that we’re working with in ’22. As I think about the year — for the first half of the year, majority of our reg pressure, pumping sand in leads all fully secured. Most of the price is locked in. There’s a little bit of open pricing, but not a lot where we can try to index link that to the pricing mechanisms. And then maybe for the second half of the year, that’s really been a little bit more patient. That feels like the right calls just given the macro volatility at the moment.

We feel good about our ability to access high-quality providers and equipment, but we’ve maybe been a little bit more thoughtful in terms of how much prices we lock in. Potentially, that could work to our advantage later in the year, particularly if you see some of this commodity price weakness that we seen recently, if that persists, especially on the natural gas side of the business. That could potentially lead to less drilling and completion activity, particularly in some of those higher cost gas, please.

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