Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Lee Tillman: Thanks, Scott.

Operator: Our next question comes from Umang Choudhary from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question.

Umang Choudhary: Hi, good morning and thank you for taking my question.

Lee Tillman: Good morning.

Umang Choudhary: Hi. My first question is on just on the international gas price outlook. Clearly, the arb between international gas and Henry Hub is very attractive today. But would love your thoughts, if you see any risk to those arbs with the sharp build out in LNG capacity through 2027?

Lee Tillman: Yes. Without trying to look too deeply into the crystal ball, one of the things that we never want to pretend to do is to predict pricing going forward. But what I will say is that the world certainly needs more energy. A lot of power generation is going to still lean heavily on gas and in Europe, that’s likely going to be LNG. There are LNG projects that are coming on in the second half of this decade that I think will start to meet that demand, but demand is growing. And so U.S. LNG as well as global LNG, we believe will still be in strong demand. And I think that that arbitrage will still be in play, certainly, between Henry Hub and global LNG linked contracts. So even if we see volatility in the absolute gas pricing, we think that arbitrage will still remain intact. And certainly, when you look at Europe today and you look at the dynamic there, we still believe that’s going to be a strong market for LNG in the future.

Umang Choudhary: Got it. Very helpful. Thank you. And then just given the weakness in natural gas prices today, as we think through your plan, I was wondering if there’s any flexibility to shift more towards any liquids-rich drilling away from a more-gassier areas.

Lee Tillman: Yes. Well, the reality is that we’ve already optimized our plan around that outcome. As I mentioned, we have a very balanced program at an enterprise level. But the reality is that our program is a very oil-weighted program in terms of capital allocation. The bulk of our capital allocation is flowing to our black oil basins, which are the Eagle Ford and the Bakken. So — and that’s, again, going back to that Oklahoma JV, we recognized that early on. And so rather than spending our operated capital there, we’re basically leveraging the funding of others for that very reason. So we believe the program is already optimized around the commodity pricing that we’re seeing today, and we feel very good that it’s going to generate extremely strong returns.

Umang Choudhary: Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator: And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we’ll be concluding today’s question-and-answer session. I’d like to turn the floor back over to Lee Tillman for any closing remarks.

Lee Tillman: Well, thank you for your interest in Marathon Oil. And I’d like to close by again thanking all our dedicated employees and contractors for their commitment to safely and responsibly deliver the energy the world needs now more than ever. Cannot be prouder of what they achieve each and every day. Thank you. And that concludes our call.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we’ll conclude today’s conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

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