Manulife Financial Corporation (NYSE:MFC) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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And then the other thing I’d say is our net interest fee yield has also been pretty stable. So when we look at that, our focus on expenses and net flows, we feel very optimistic that we’ll continue to improve this margin over time.

Mario Mendonca: Moving to ALDA again, and it’s a different kind of question, depending on which economist you speak to, we’d expect rates to start to come down – like, overnight rates start coming down, say, around April or May. The question is, how soon after rates start to drop to the short end of the curve or the long end of the curve, how soon after do you actually start to report some gains on the ALDA? Like, returns that are above your long term expectations? Is that a reasonable expectation as rates start to fall?

Scott Hartz: It’s not all about interest rates, but interest rates obviously have been pressuring returns this year. And to the extent the Fed does start to lower rates, that will certainly be helpful. And I think appraisers will actually reflect that pretty quickly. Or even based on sort of market expectations. So, yes, I would think on the real estate side, you should see that sort of reversal. Of course, there’s other factors at play, how’s the general economy doing and so forth, that will also have an impact?

Operator: And the next question is from Tom MacKinnon from BMO Capital Markets.

Tom MacKinnon: Just to follow up on all the ALDA discussions. We’ve been focusing here, talking a lot on cap rates, but obviously, the return on the portfolio, not just the cap rates, it’s the growth and as the dynamics of sort of commercial real estate are changing, what are your thoughts on that growth? It’s a different world post COVID here now in terms of commercial real estate, so how does that factor in? Just your comments with respect to that?

Scott Hartz: As I talked about earlier, for commercial real estate, cap rates plus growth, to your point, are what drive the total returns. And our portfolio is office, industrial, multifamily. And I would say on the office side, I would say growth could be challenged. It’s hard to say for sure. This return to office has still not played out. But that’s something we’re keeping a watching brief on. But our office has become a pretty small part of our ALDA portfolio. The US office is only 5% of the overall ALDA portfolio at this point. Whereas I think the other property types really have pretty good tailwinds behind them. In industrial, we’ve seen a lot of growth there. Would expect that to continue. And then, on multifamily, there’s certainly a shortage of housing, which I think bodes well in the long run. So I’m feeling pretty positive on the growth of two of the three sectors that we have. And for office, I think the jury’s still out.

Roy Gori: Tom, Roy here. I might just also chime in and add that our real estate portfolio is actually quite globally diverse as well. 38% is in the US, 33% in Canada and 29% in Asia. And we’ve seen, on the point of valuations, Asia hold up actually quite well. So the diversity of the portfolio is also another factor that just needs to be in the back of people’s minds.

Operator: Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I’d like to turn the meeting back over to Mr. Ko.

Hung Ko : Thank you, operator. We’ll be available after the call if there are any more questions. Have a good day, everyone.

Operator: Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time. And we thank you for your participation.

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