ManpowerGroup Inc. (NYSE:MAN) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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So I’d say that is important. And then I think on the professional side, it’s really going to come down to Jonas’s earlier comments on employer confidence with restarting IT projects and related spend. So that’s going to come down to elimination of deferring projects and moving more into scheduling those projects moving forward. So and as you mentioned earlier, some of that’s going to be predicated based on overall events in the economy and interest rates and other factors that give employers the confidence that we’re moving into a more predictable environment.

Heather Balsky: Thank you. It’s helpful. And this is a follow up question. If something we’re at [inaudible] paying attention to is what’s going on in the Red Sea and Panama Canal. I’m just curious, have your customers started talking about that at all? Is there any sense of concern or is it still too early? Thanks.

Jonas Prising : Overall, Heather, I see it’s still a bit early. There have been well publicized circumstances around some of the automotive industry and that is well known and so that may have an impact but will and primarily in that case from our perspective Germany but other than that I think it’s a little bit early still, Heather.

Operator: We will take our last question from George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

George Tong: Hi. Thanks. Good morning. The midpoint of your revenue guide points to a widening rate of constant currency decline and you talked about weaker economic trends in Europe relative to the U.S. Based on business trends you’ve seen so far in 1Q, can you elaborate on which regions in Europe are seeing the most amount of incremental softening in revenue?

Jack McGinnis: Yes, George, I’d be happy to talk to that. So you’re right on a constant currency basis we do step down from minus five in Q4 to minus six but I would say days are a big factor in Q1. So when you adjust for billing days, we’re actually running very close to the same trend so days-adjusted, organic days-adjusted we were at minus 5% in Q4 and we’re also at minus 5% in Q1 but there are puts and takes and that to your point so the way I would look at it is the rate of decline improves in the U.S. as we’ve talked about earlier largely due to the fact that we start to anniversary a bit of a step down in the year ago activity levels relatively stable. And I would say the UK, similar I would say, similar activity levels into Q1, a little more pressure in France and Italy into Q1.

I think if you offset that against favorable trends in APME and LATAM, that kind of gets you to an overall days-adjusted organic, constant currency in line with what we just completed. So a bit of puts and takes. And then I’d say the other area where we’re seeing a little more pressures, Northern Europe, that we talked about in the Nordics and the Netherlands market that we talked about earlier on the call. But that’s a bit of the rundown on the progression from Q4 to Q1.

George Tong: Got it. That’s helpful. And you mentioned it’s difficult to pinpoint when one an inflection will happen with revenue. What are the elements there? How do you think about when operating margins will potentially inflect?

Jack McGinnis: Yes, I would say very much in line with the revenue trend. So I think we’ve done a lot of work on cost actions in the second half of ‘23. We feel good that that’s going to work its way through in preserving margin as we go forward here. As you think about those inflection points on revenue, PERM is going to be part of the equation. We talked about RPO. When hiring programs commence again in a bigger way, we’ll see, we would expect to see more RPO activity. The good news is we continue to have very strong global RPO clients when demand and hiring requisitions recommence, we will see a surge in that business when that occurs. And as the operational leverage comes back into the business, you’ll see us expand our EBITA margins accordingly with that. So I would say moving very much in line with revenue trends as we move forward.

Jonas Prising : Thanks everyone. That brings us to the end of our earnings call for the fourth quarter. We look forward to speaking with all of you again as we report our first quarter results sometime in May. Until then, thanks everyone.

Operator: This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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