How do you track the value of companies you’re invested in? If you’re like most people, you probably check the increase or decrease in share price.
Hate to tell you this, but you’re doing it wrong.
Let me explain…
Don’t anchor yourself
After my article on MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) earlier this week, a reader wasn’t too happy about my view that the company was overvalued given the most recent phase 3 data.
“Why was MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) at 10 last time around at this juncture and suddenly we have everyone wanting to cut it down,” the reader asked in an email.
The reader is arguing, as you can see from the chart, that MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) hasn’t reached the level it was the last time it was on the cusp of an approval for its inhaled insulin Afrezza. With an approval as likely — I’d argue, more likely — than it was in March 2010 and January 2011, before the first and second FDA rejections, shouldn’t MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) be valued as high as it was back then?
Turns out it is. Higher even.
MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD)’s share count has doubled since 2011. Since the value of the company — its market cap — is the share price times the number of shares outstanding, the value of the company — the orange line on the graph below — is much higher than it was in 2011 even after the pullback the last couple of days. The company is worth more, but each share is a smaller portion of the pie.
Part of the biotech game
Investors who bought before the last FDA rejection haven’t recouped their losses, but it’s hard to fault MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD). Drug development costs money. Capital raises are a necessary evil, and they’re painful for investors when cash is needed when valuations sink after surprise rejections.
Here’s a look at a few more companies that have had recent failures to illustrate the point. The theoretical share price is based on the 2011 weighted average diluted share outstanding and the current market cap. Essentially it’s the price if the company hadn’t sold any shares recently.
| Company | Share Price Aug 16, 2013 | Theoretical Share Price | Potential Increases Investors Missed |
|---|---|---|---|
| MannKind | $5.77 | $13.46 | 133% |
| Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA) | $6.83 | $10.70 | 57% |
| VIVUS, Inc. (NASDAQ:VVUS) | $12.28 | $14.49 | 19% |
| Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:OREX) | $6.84 | $13.88 | 103% |
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
The FDA sent all three obesity drug companies — Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA), VIVUS, Inc. (NASDAQ:VVUS), and Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:OREX) — back to the drawing board, causing share prices to drop. Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA) and VIVUS, Inc. (NASDAQ:VVUS) were eventually able to get their drugs approved without any additional clinical trials, but Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:OREX) had to run a large safety study, necessitating a large capital raise. Its market cap also dropped the lowest of the three, making raising cash more dilutive to shareholders.
There’s one more moral to this story. Having cash going into a binary event can help reduce the amount investors are diluted. VIVUS, Inc. (NASDAQ:VVUS) ended 2011 with nearly $150 million compared to a little more than $50 million for Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA). The cash helped VIVUS, Inc. (NASDAQ:VVUS) maneuver the rejection more easily than Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA).
Foolish take-home message
Investors would be much better off if brokerage firms and finance websites would give quotes in market caps rather than share prices. Over the short term, share price is an OK indication in change in value, but over the longer term, share price becomes fairly meaningless as companies sell shares, diluting current shareholders. As an added bonus, it would give investors a relative valuation compared to its peers.
The article Attention Biotech Investors: Stop Looking at Share Price originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by Brian Orelli.
Fool contributor Brian Orelli has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
Copyright © 1995 – 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
