Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Chris Stavros: Yeah. I would expect it to continue to taper down based on the activity, but probably at a lesser rate than what we’ve seen. I mean, I think there was a more substantial dip in the non-op activity. And I’m not suggesting that that’s going to change or increase necessarily. All I’m saying is that as a result of some of the lesser activity, the rate of decline has sort of tapered into — probably into next year and recently. So it’s just not much going on there on a non-op level. So a tapering, but at a lower rate.

Oliver Huang: Okay. Thanks for the time, Chris.

Chris Stavros: Thanks.

Operator: And we have a question from Paul Diamond from Citi. Paul, please go ahead.

Paul Diamond: Thank you, and good morning all. I appreciate you taking my call. Just a quick one. I’m looking forward to ’24. I guess, what shift of magnitude and fundamentals would it require to really shift that ’24 operating plan? Something similar to the move we saw earlier this year? Is it something more substantial?

Chris Stavros: I’m not quite sure what you’re asking. Are you saying how does our ’24 plan — is how is that different from ’23?

Paul Diamond: No. I guess more how — what do you need to see in the market to really shift off of that plan?

Chris Stavros: Yeah. No, I understand. So I mean if you’re suggesting something more similar to what we saw in 2022 with much higher product prices, we didn’t — I mean, we may have spent a little bit more, been a little bit more active, but generally not. We don’t sort of tailor the plan specifically around believing that oil prices or gas prices are going to sort of run much higher. We sort of go into the year with a generally a set plan and should things be a whole lot better in terms of pricing, the money sort of accrues just like it did in 2022. I wouldn’t expect to sort of follow along there and just use all the money to drill more and grow at much higher rates. So if that’s what you’re asking, the answer is really no.

Brian Corales: And, Paul, in 2022, we spent about a third of our money, a third of our EBITDAX to put it in perspective.

Paul Diamond: Understood. Appreciate it. And then just one more quick one more on [the inflationary bent] (ph). I know earlier this year, you guys talked about how cost and expenses were well above what you thought was an appropriate price. I guess, just want to get your idea of how close you think we are now or in coming quarters to that more, I guess, a decent run rate level for the long term?

Chris Stavros: Yeah. Look, our teams have done a great job around that. And I’m really pleased that we got at it early this year because we wouldn’t have seen the realized benefits that we did — we have, we saved a bunch of money. And we also positioned ourselves very good in the back half of the year, and it gives us a lot of flexibility and more certainty going into next year. So sort of 20%, as I said, point to point, I think, is pretty good. My sense around this is that for gas, it’s going to be sort of a very weather driven event here in terms of pricing. And it feels — and this is just me talking, it feels like the rig count and just some of the commentary around activity feels like it’s bottoming. And so if that’s correct, you may have seen most of the improvements or lower costs that you’ll likely see.

I say most of it. Will we see a little bit more? Perhaps. If the economy softens into next year, there could be some additional savings that work their way in, but I’m not necessarily counting on that. I’m just counting on what I know right now. What I know is that we have some things locked in for a portion of ’24 that makes me feel pretty good.

Paul Diamond: Understood. Thanks for the clarity.

Chris Stavros: Okay, thanks.

Operator: And we will take a question now from Sean Mitchell from Simmons. Sean, please go ahead.

Sean Mitchell: Hi, thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to, and this is kind of back to the question that was just asked, you guys talked last quarter about OCTG being down almost 30%. It seemed like you guys were feeling really good about where you were from a service cost perspective, and obviously, the costs are rolling through. Given the rig count has taken another pretty substantial leg lower here sequentially relative to where we were the last time we talked to you on the call, I mean, I assume you’re feeling better about your position. Is there any one particular area that you’re seeing kind of more pricing sensitivity than others? I mean OCTG was a great example on the last call. I’m just wondering if there’s anything you can point to on this call.

Chris Stavros: Yeah, thanks, Sean. I guess I would say steel for now, steel prices have been still working in our favor. Again, as I said just previously, it’s hard to really say how this might change just in terms of the impact of steel inventory, steel productivity, steel outcome at mills, steel imports, et cetera. Hard for me to really say, but it still feels pretty good as we exit this year and start to move into 2024. Much of this is going to be centered around the global economic picture and what we see around the world, which some people would tell you not all that great right now. On the other hand, there might be some people that feel differently. But right now, I think there’s softness there.

Sean Mitchell: Got it. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.

Chris Stavros: Okay, thanks.

Operator: And this concludes our question-and-answer session and this conference. We thank you very much for attending today’s presentation, and you may now disconnect. Have a good day.

Chris Stavros: Thank you.

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