LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE:LYB) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Kim Foley : Absolutely. So let’s talk about the profitability of oxyfuels first. So some of the key drivers for the profitability there would be the price of crude, would be your gasoline cracks, would be your ratio of crude to butane, as well as the premium that the market will pay to put octane into the gasoline pool. So what you really saw blow out in the third quarter was that premium that people wanted to get that octane into their gasoline pool. So to answer your question as it relates to October, yes, we’ve seen that premium come down we see some volatility in crude, right? But — that’s why we’re saying they’re higher than historical, but not the peaks that we saw in the third quarter. And then to answer your question on POSM operating rates, the guidance that we’ve given earlier in the presentation was 70% operating rates for the fourth quarter. So we have two of our PO/TBA plants down, and we’ve got our POSM plants up to meet that 70% operating rate.

Peter Vanacker : And as you can see, I mean, we have the investments on the PO/TBA plant is a very successful investment as we are running at 70% in total of our capacity. That gives us a huge opportunity also to continue to grow. And again, that fits them into the first pillar of our strategy, growing and upgrading the core because these are markets that are growing.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed the question.

Arun Viswanathan : Great. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to, I guess, get some more detail on your thoughts on how you’re thinking about polyethylene markets from here. So as you noted, there were the two increases for August and September. But we’re still seeing some challenging conditions in China, and then some new absorption of new capacity. So as you look into ’24, do you think that we’ve bottomed out on PE markets and we should see some sustainable increases here? How would you characterize that with — against the backdrop of U.S. demand and your operating review as well?

Peter Vanacker : Before I lead, I mean, to Ken to answer that question, I mean, the comfortable — I mean, the positive thing that we have seen is, of course, that continuously PE exports have gone up during the last quarter. So that is, of course, a positive sign. But one would need to, of course, also look at additional capacity that has come in the markets or that has not really hit the market because of some perceived, I mean, what we’re reading the paper technical difficulties. Ken?

Ken Lane : I’ll just add to that, Arun, that we’re seeing very good support for those exports with a high oil to gas ratio that we expect is going to continue, especially with the volatility around oil markets and gas production being relatively robust. So we do feel good about what’s happening in the North American market. Europe is going to continue to be very challenged in terms of demand. That is still significantly down, mainly because of the inflation impacts but also the margins are challenged there with the higher naphtha pricing that we saw. So we’ve got good momentum coming out of the third quarter going into fourth quarter, seeing some signs of growth in China and really a very challenging market that’s going to continue in Europe.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, our final question this morning comes from the line of Joshua Spector with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Joshua Spector : Yes, thanks. Actually I want to follow up on the last point that when you’re looking at China. I think — can you give us an update on what you’re seeing in terms of inventory? And are we over the hump on the capacity additions there? Or does that impact the shape of the curve as we go into next year? What’s your view around that?