Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript March 21, 2024

Lululemon Athletica Inc. beats earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $5.29, expectations were $5.01. LULU isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).

Operator: Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Lululemon Athletica Inc. Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Howard Tubin, Vice President, Investor Relations for Lululemon Athletica. Please go ahead.

Howard Tubin: Thank you, and good afternoon. Welcome to Lululemon’s fourth quarter earnings conference call. Joining me today to talk about our results are Calvin McDonald, CEO; and Meghan Frank, CFO. Before we get started, I’d like to take this opportunity to remind you that our remarks today will include forward-looking statements reflecting management’s current forecast of certain aspects of Lululemon’s future. These statements are based on current information, which we have assessed, but by which its nature is dynamic and subject to rapid and even abrupt changes. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business, including those we have disclosed in our most recent filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.

Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions as of today, and we expressly disclaim any obligation or undertaking to update or revise any of these statements as a result of new information or future events. During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in our annual report on Form 10-K and in today’s earnings press release. In addition, the comparable sales metrics given on today’s call are on a constant dollar basis. The press release and accompanying report on Form 10-K are available under the Investors section of our website at www.lululemon.com. Before we begin the call, I’d like to remind our investors to visit our Investor site, where you’ll find a summary of our key financial and operating statistics for the fourth quarter, as well as our quarterly infographic.

Today’s call is scheduled for one hour. So please limit yourself to one question at a time to give others the opportunity to have their questions addressed. And now, I’d like to turn the call over to Calvin.

Calvin McDonald: Thank you, Howard. I’m pleased to be here today to discuss our Q4 and full-year 2023 results, which represent another solid finish to another strong year for Lululemon. We will also discuss our business in Q1 and our outlook for 2024. As you’ve heard from others in our industry, there has been a shift in the US consumer behavior of late and we’re navigating what has been a slower start to the year in this market. We view this as an opportunity to keep playing offense as we lean into investments that will continue our growth trajectory. Outside the US, our business remains strong in all our international markets in Canada. Meghan will take you through our guidance shortly, and I will share with you some of the initiatives that we have planned specifically for the US, as well as our overall plans for product and marketing.

What you’ll hear from me is a message that remains consistent. We have an impressive pipeline of innovation. Our opportunity to increase our brand awareness remains significant and we will continue to grow and optimize our store base within the Americas and around the world. And we remain ahead of our Power of Three x2 goals. So let’s begin. As you read in our press release, our Q4 results, both top and bottom line, exceeded the updated guidance we provided in January. Our growth remained balanced across channels, regions and product categories and we continued to see strong increase in traffic at our stores and e-commerce sites. In the fourth quarter, total revenue increased 16%. By region, the Americas increased 9%, China Mainland increased 78% and the rest of the world increased 36%.

By merchandise category, women’s increased 13%, men’s grew 15% and accessories increased 40%. And earnings per share were $5.29 versus adjusted EPS of $4.40 in Q4 last year. When looking at our product performance in Q4, the trends we have seen in the business over the last several quarters continued. We saw strength in key franchises, including for women, Scuba, Define, Softstreme and Wunder Puff. For men, Steady State, Soft Jersey and ABC as well as License to Train and Pace Breaker. And in accessories, our overall bag assortment continues to perform well. And we continued to build our essential membership program in North America, which has now grown to more than 17 million members in the first year. This quarter, we offer them exclusive benefits, including early access to our Black Friday styles, member-only shop nights and invitations to participate in experiences such as our Move For You activation with Peloton at the Mall of America.

We remain excited with our membership program as it offers us new ways to engage with our guests and increase both spend and LTV. I’m pleased that we’re seeing positive results so far on all these objectives. Now turning to our full year 2023 results. Revenue increased 19% versus last year to $9.6 billion with the Americas up 12%, China Mainland up 67% and rest of world growing 43% versus last year. Adjusted operating margin increased 110 basis points, while adjusted earnings per share increased 27% versus 2022. As you know, 2023 was the second full year of our Power of Three x2 growth plan. When looking at these two years collectively, I’m pleased that we have grown revenue at a 24% CAGR, fueled by a 44% CAGR in our international regions, expanded our adjusted operating margin by 120 basis points, growing adjusted EPS at a 28% CAGR and continued to gain market share.

These results speak to the strength of the Lululemon brand in all markets where we operate and illustrate the significant opportunities we have in front of us as we remain in the early innings of our growth story. Let me now speak to quarter one of 2024 and what we’re seeing in the business. We are pleased that our sales remained strong in most regions across the globe, consistent with what we’ve seen from others in the market, the consumer environment in the United States has been somewhat challenging. However, despite the market dynamics, we remain optimistic about our opportunities to grow our business in the US in 2024 and to continue to gain market share. We have robust plans in place to further strengthen our position. We will continue to open and optimize our stores with plans for five to 10 new store openings and 15 to 20 optimizations.

With US sales per square foot above our overall average of $1,600, our stores remain among the most productive in the industry. In addition, our stores facilitate a direct connection with our guests, help us attract new guests into the brand and act as hubs in our local communities. We will continue to invest into the market to increase our brand awareness, as we continue to activate both community-based events and larger brand campaigns. We see other areas within the business to further strengthen our positioning. We are successfully growing our business across all age demographics, including our younger guests. As we have attracted more younger guests into the brand, we have seen strong sell-through of our smaller sizes and our offering of color.

We don’t yet know how high is high with this demographic, and our teams are chasing into these areas of the assortment so we can better maximize the business. And our product pipeline is compelling, both within the US and across the globe. In fact, 2024 will be another year of significant product innovation. We started the year strong with the launch of our expanded footwear collection in early February. Building on the initial success of our women’s line, we hosted a media event in New York City to unveil new styles of both technical and casual footwear, including our first shoes designed for men. Our new styles available for both men and women include the Cityverse, designed for all-day comfort and bringing the best of technical performance to a casual sneaker Beyondfeel, a new running shoe that offers superior cushioning, ventilation and support, and Beyondfeel Trail, our newest road-to-trail running shoe.

We are very pleased with the initial reaction to our new styles. We were seeing a particularly strong response to Cityverse from our male guests in North America and in China. And the guest response is exceeding our expectations. Our teams are chasing into this initial strength and we build upon this momentum with additional footwear innovations planned throughout the year. Our strategy with footwear is the same as apparel. We lead with technical innovations that solve for the unmet needs of our guests. We can then leverage our expertise in raw material innovation and technical construction to offer versatile styles designed for everyday use. In addition, within our 2024 product pipeline, we will continue to be a leader in fabric innovation with new fabrics planned within both our yoga and train categories.

Also for women, we will continue to maximize our largest franchise, Align, as we explore new silhouettes across both tops and bottoms. And we will continue to expand our popular train franchise, License to Train. On the men’s side, this year, we are launching the most innovation I’ve seen in the last number of years across categories and activities. A few highlights include new fabric innovations within our golf category and continuing to build upon the success of Soft Jersey with additional styles. Also, we have recently leveraged our iconic Pace Breaker into a complete collection with the launch of a Pace Breaker Jacket and Pant to bring new solves into the men’s run category. Our product and our ability to bring new technical solutions into our assortment on a consistent basis is one of our biggest competitive advantages.

I’m excited with the innovations we have on top for 2024, which will continue to enable our guests to sweat in any way they choose. Let me now shift to our brand and marketing strategies. As you know, our brand awareness remains low across most markets, which represents a significant opportunity for us to attract new guests. Starting with our FURTHER event, which began just before International Women’s Day and concluded last week. FURTHER was a first-of-its-kind women’s ultramarathon in which 10 athletes from our ambassador collective set out to run the furthest distances of their careers. The activation was a huge success as world records were set by athletes wearing our apparel and footwear. And it is a great example of what makes Lululemon unique.

For example, how we create authentic community activations like no other brand, which results in increased brand awareness through significant earned and social media attention, and also how we continue to innovate with athletes and for athletes and introduce new technical solutions into our assortment. As part of FURTHER, we designed 36 products through a female-first lens, many of which we will introduce into our mainline assortment over the coming seasons. Looking forward, next month in advance of the Paris Olympics and Paralympic Games, we will be revealing our kits for Team Canada. As you know, in 2021 we announced a multi-year partnership with the Canadian Olympic Committee and the Canadian Paralympic Committee. After our inaugural 2022 Winter Games, we are now set to launch our first Team Canada summer collection, outfitting the athletes and coaches with our product.

I’ve seen what we’ve created and it’s amazing for both our Olympians and Paralympians. In addition to supporting Canadian athletes, this partnership is another example of Lululemon’s deep relationships with lead athletes. It showcases our brand on the global stage and is a compelling strategy to grow awareness and bring new guests into the brand. I’d like to spend a moment on the success and growth within our international business. We experienced strength across all of our international markets in Q4, and we expect business to remain robust in 2024. International, which includes our China Mainland and rest of world segments, continues to be underpenetrated and represents only 21% of our business. We operate a total of 273 stores in all of our international markets combined, which clearly speaks to the opportunity we have ahead of us.

In 2024, we’ll open approximately 30 stores outside of North America and we will continue with our strategies to increase our brand awareness. And while not part of the Power of Three x2 growth plan, over the long term we expect international to represent approximately half of our overall revenue. As you can see, we have many reasons to be optimistic about the future. We entered 2024 from a position of strength. We exceeded our Power of Three x2 revenue target in 2023. And based upon our guidance, we will remain ahead of schedule in 2024. We are excited that our strategies to build brand awareness are working. Over the past year through our strategic investments in brand campaigns and community activations, we have successfully grown our unaided awareness in key markets.

The US went from 25% to 31% and China went from 9% to 14%. We will continue these strategies in 2024, and we will continue to strategically invest across all markets, including the US, which will set us up well for this year and beyond. Given we are in the early innings of our growth with low unaided awareness and significant market share potential, all of us on the Lululemon leadership team are tremendously excited for what lies ahead for our brand. We are investing for growth with a pipeline of innovation that is full. We are playing offense, while many others in our sector are not. And these advantages will further enhance our standing in the marketplace in the US and around the globe. With that, I will turn it over to Meghan for a review of our financials and our 2024 guidance.

Meghan Frank: Thanks, Calvin. We closed out 2023 on a strong note, with our Q4 results exceeding the updated guidance we provided in mid-January. As Calvin mentioned, we have seen a slower start to Q1 in the US, while we continue to see strength in all other regions. While we navigate the consumer environment in the US, we see several opportunities to maximize our performance. Our teams are focused on executing against our strategies and delivering for our guests throughout 2024. As we have always done, we continue to plan for multiple scenarios. We are positioning ourselves to both maximize our performance in the short and long term and manage our business to protect against downside. Before sharing the details of our Q4 performance and our guidance outlook, let me provide an update on our segment reporting.

With the evolution of our business, the meaningful opportunity we have in our international regions and our omni-channel operating model, we’ve changed our reporting segments from channel to geography. In our 2023 10-K, you will see our new segments, which are Americas, China Mainland and rest of world. In the earnings release and on today’s call, we will still provide comparable sales metrics by channel. So you’ll have the data to close out your models for 2023. However, going forward, we will be reporting revenue metrics and profit on a regional basis. Let me now share the details of our Q4 performance. For Q4, total net revenue rose 16% to $3.2 billion and comparable sales increased 12%. Within our regions, results were as follows: Americas revenue increased 9% with comparable sales increasing 7%; China Mainland revenue increased 78% with comparable sales increasing 60%; and in our rest of world segment, revenue grew by 36% with comparable sales increasing by 31%.

In our store channel, total sales increased 15%, with comparable store sales increasing 6%. We ended the quarter with a total of 711 stores across the globe. Square footage increased 15% versus last year, driven by the addition of 56 net new Lululemon stores since Q4 of 2022. During the quarter, we opened 25 net new stores and completed 15 optimizations. In our digital channel, revenues increased 17% and contributed $1.7 billion of top line or 52% of total revenue. By category, women’s revenue increased by 13% versus last year, men’s increased by 15% and accessories grew 40%. We also experienced ongoing strength in traffic across channels. The stores and e-commerce both increasing by approximately 20%. This speaks to the strength of our omni-operating model as we engage with our guests in ways most convenient to them.

Gross profit for the fourth quarter was $1.9 billion, 59.4% of net revenue compared to the adjusted rate of 57.4% of net revenue in Q4 2022. Our adjusted gross margin increased 200 basis points relative to last year and was driven primarily by the following. A 210 basis point increase in overall product margin, driven primarily by lower air and ocean freight costs, as well as lower air freight usage, offset slightly by 10 basis points of deleverage on foreign exchange. Markdowns were — in Q4 were relatively flat with last year. Gross margin was favorable to our updated guidance of 120 basis points to 130 basis points, driven predominantly by 40 basis points of leverage on fixed costs, 20 basis points of favorability in product margin driven mostly by lower freight costs and 10 basis points of favorability and FX.

Moving to SG&A. Our approach continues to be granted and prudently managing our expenses while also continuing to strategically invest in our long-term growth opportunities. SG&A expenses were approximately $990 million or 30.9% of net revenue compared to 29% of net revenue for the same period last year. The deleverage in SG&A was driven by our continued strategic investments in brand building, technology and foundational infrastructure in addition to increased depreciation and amortization related to investments made in 2022 and 2023. This was partially offset by savings related to the evolution of our Lululemon Studio business model. Foreign exchange contributed 40 basis points to the deleverage in the quarter. Operating income for the quarter was $914 million or 28.5% of net revenue, compared to an adjusted operating margin of 28.3% in Q4 2022.

Tax expense for the quarter was $262 million, or 28.1% of pretax earnings compared to an adjusted effective tax rate of 28.7% a year ago. The decrease relative to last year is due primarily to an increase in tax benefits related to stock-based compensation and some favorable adjustments upon the filing of income tax returns. This was partially offset by an increase and accrued withholding tax on earnings in Canada. Net income for the quarter was $669 million or $5.29 per diluted share, compared to adjusted earnings per diluted share of $4.40 for the fourth quarter of 2022. Capital expenditures were approximately $207 million for the quarter, flat with Q4 of last year. Q4 spend relates primarily to primarily to investments to support business growth, including our multi-year distribution center project, store capital for new locations, relocations and renovations and technology investments.

Turning to our balance sheet highlights. We ended the quarter with $2.24 billion in cash and cash equivalents and nearly $400 million of available capacity under our revolving credit facility. Inventory at the end of Q4 was $1.3 billion. We are pleased with our inventory levels, which declined 9% versus last year. Relative to our expectations, higher revenue and foreign exchange contributed to the decrease. On a unit basis, inventory increased approximately 1%. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 120,000 shares at an average price of $450. In the full year 2023, we repurchased approximately 550 million of stock at an average price of approximately $375. At the end of Q4, we had approximately $1.2 billion of capacity remaining on our share repurchase authorization.

Let me now shift to our guidance outlook. As I said at the start of my remarks, we’re being disciplined and agile with our planning for 2024. Our teams are focused on maximizing our performance in the current environment and delivering for our guests this year and beyond. We remain committed to our Power of Three x2 growth plan. Beginning with the full-year 2024, we expect revenue to be in the range of $10.7 billion to $10.8 billion. This range represents growth of 11% to 12% relative to 2023. Excluding the 53rd week that we have in the fourth quarter of 2024, we expect revenue to grow 10% to 11%. We expect to open 35 to 40 net new company-operated stores in 2024 and complete approximately 40 co-located optimizations. This will contribute to overall square footage growth in the low double digits.

Our new store openings in 2024 will include five to 10 stores in the Americas with the rest in our international markets, primarily in China Mainland. For the full year, we forecast gross margin to be approximately flat with adjusted gross margin in 2023. Within gross margin, we expect both markdowns and air freight to be relatively flat with last year. Turning now to SG&A for the full year. We forecast leverage of approximately 10 basis points versus 2023. We are prudently managing our expenses, while continuing to invest strategically into our Power of Three x2 roadmap, including investments in marketing and brand-building aimed at increasing our awareness in acquiring new guests, investments to support our international growth and market expansion and continued investment in technology infrastructure and data analytics capabilities.

When looking at operating margin for the full year of 2024, we expect it to increase by approximately 10 basis points versus adjusted operating margin in 2023, which expanded 110 basis points versus 2022. To date, in our Power of Three x2 plan, we’re tracking above our operating margin target of modest expansion annually. For the full-year 2024, we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 30%, an increase over the 2023 adjusted effective tax rate of 28.7%. The increase relative to last year relates primarily to lower stock-based compensation deductions and the favorable adjustments we realize on filing our tax returns in 2023. For Q1, we expect our effective tax rate to be 29% to 29.5%. For the fiscal year 2024, we expect diluted earnings per share in the range of $14.00 to $14.20 versus adjusted EPS of $12.77 in 2023.

Our EPS guidance excludes the impact of any future share repurchases. When looking at inventory, we expect dollar inventory to decline in the high single to low double-digit percent in the first half of the year and then increase in the second half of the year as we anniversary last year’s declines. We expect capital expenditures to be approximately $670 million to $690 million for 2024. The spend relates to investments to support business growth, including a continuation of our multi-year distribution center project, store capital for new locations, relocations and renovations and technology investments. Shifting now to Q1. We expect revenue in the range of $2.175 billion to $2.2 billion, representing growth of 9% to 10%. We expect to open one net new company-operated store in Q1.

We expect gross margin in Q1 to be approximately flat with Q1 2023 with markdowns relatively flat with last year. In Q1, we expect our SG&A rate to deleverage by 130 basis points to 140 basis points relative to Q1 2023. This will be driven predominantly by increased investments to grow brand awareness and acquire new guests and higher depreciation, resulting from technology investments made in 2022 and 2023. Let me share some additional details on our investments to grow brand awareness. Within Q1, we will be activating three relatively large brand events, our footwear launch and FURTHER ultramarathon which already took place and our Team Canada kit launch later in the quarter. These events, plus some other strategic investments in brand building, are contributing to the deleverage.

Looking at quarters two through four, we do not anticipate SG&A deleverage. And as I previously stated, we expect 10 basis points of SG&A leverage for the full year. When looking at operating margin for Q1, we expect it to decline 130 basis points to 140 basis points year-over-year, driven by our SG&A investments. I’d also note that operating margin in Q1 2023 expanded by 400 basis points, driven predominantly by air freight savings. In addition, we did not start accelerating our investments into our strategic roadmap until the second quarter of last year. And as I stated previously, we expect operating margin to expand modestly for the full year on top of the 110 basis points of operating margin expansion in 2023. Turning to EPS, we expect earnings per share in the first quarter to be in the range of $2.35 to $2.40 versus EPS of $2.28 a year-ago.

And with that, I will turn it back over to Calvin.

Calvin McDonald: Thank you, Meghan. In summary, I’m proud of how we closed out 2023 and the way in which we have continued to expand around the world, deliver against our Power of Three x2 strategies, and create momentum in the business. I’m optimistic that the investments we’re making in the business will contribute to another year of growth in 2024. In closing, I want to thank the members of our global collective, particularly our employees in our stores, distribution and guest education centers, as well as our store support centers who engaged with our guests every day and bring our brand to life. They are responsible for driving these results and they will be the engine that will fuel all we will accomplish going forward. We will now take your questions.

Operator: We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Alex Straton with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

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Q&A Session

Alex Straton: Great. Thanks so much for taking the question. I just wanted to hone in on the comments on the challenging consumer behavior. Just wondering, are you seeing that in some pockets of the business more than others, or is it broad-based? Is it a traffic or a conversion problem or how do you see that? And then does that mean that the business is currently running at the 1Q guide like that 9% to 10%, I believe? Or how should we think about that comment in relation to the first quarter guidance? Thanks a lot.

Calvin McDonald: Thanks, Alex. In terms of what we’re seeing, as I mentioned, all international markets, including Canada are continuing their strong momentum into Q1. And in the US is where we’re really navigating the dynamic retail environment with the consumer that is a little soft coming into the year. I think we have an opportunity — I know we have an opportunity in this market, in particular, some in and around our product. As I mentioned, our sizing in particular in zero to four is something we’re chasing into. Color. Where we had color, it performed well. And honestly, we just did not have enough. And both of these attributes over-index in the US, which is where I see the opportunity. And we’re going to continue to play offense in the market.

The innovation product pipeline remains very strong for this year and we have some exciting brand initiatives in addition. Where that’s showing up? We’re seeing a slowdown in traffic in the US, but it’s still positive and conversion is down slightly. And I link that to some of the product opportunities we have in the sizing and color, which as I said, we will — we are chasing until we will get stronger through the quarters.

Meghan Frank: Great. And Alex, I’d just add, on the Q1 guide relative to current trends, we don’t speak to inter-quarter trends. But as Calvin shared, we were off to a soft start in the US with all other regions performing strongly and did guide to the 9% to 10% growth, which we feel is appropriate, given what we’re seeing in terms of trends.

Alex Straton: Thanks a lot. Good luck.

Operator: Thank you. The next question comes from Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Lorraine Hutchinson: Thank you. Good afternoon. I was hoping you could provide a state of the union on the men’s business growth stabilized after decelerating a bit last year. Where do you see the largest opportunities to defend and grow share in the men’s business?

Calvin McDonald: Great. Thanks, Lorraine. As I mentioned, I’m very excited about the product pipeline for men’s this year. Last year, our men’s business did increase as you indicated in the Q4, which was great to see that momentum back into our men’s business. Total year was 15% growth. And two years into our Power of Three x2 plan, we’ve grown our men’s revenue at a 21% CAGR, so ahead of that goal. We continue to put on share through all of last year. We did see the male guest in general pull back a little bit in the category of apparel and athletic. And I think Q4, we are seeing him being drawn back in on innovation, which I will highlight a few that for this year, I’m very encouraged by. One is, as you know, in our ABC franchise, both the trouser and five pocket, it was only a few years ago that we had one fabric offering and that was Warpstreme.

Since then, we’ve added Utilitech, we’ve added WovenAir, and we are launching a VersaTwill product this year, which is — feels more — it’s a proprietary performance base which feels more of a hand feel of a cotton, so it’s fantastic for the lighter warmer months. And it really is a completely incremental offering for us in a silhouette and a brand and a franchise that he loves. Our lounge product in men’s is just getting stronger. We launched Soft Jersey last fall. We’ve been chasing since then. In the next few weeks, we’ll really be fully in an in-stock position to represent. We’ve added Steady State and Smooth Spacer. So our lounge offering for him is the strongest it’s been. And we’ve equally launched some performance product that’s performing incredibly well.

Zeroed In, which is a new Train franchise in the Pace Breaker, which is our most versatile Hero short item, bringing that into a track bottom and top to round out the needs for him. So all those are checking very positively. We’re seeing very encouraging demand on the newness and I’m very confident in our product pipeline and what we’re going to see.

Lorraine Hutchinson: Thank you.

Operator: The next question comes from Brooke Roach with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Brooke Roach: Good afternoon, and thank you for taking our question. I was hoping you could elaborate on what you’re seeing in the China market today and your outlook for growth there this year? Additionally, could you provide updated thoughts on opportunity for further profitability improvement in the region this year? Thank you.

Calvin McDonald: Thanks, Brooke. I’ll take the first half. We remain excited about the potential for Lululemon in China. In Q4, our revenue increased 78% in Mainland China. Part of that was driven by the COVID-related store closures we experienced in quarter 2022. But in the full year, our business grew 67%. So while we are keeping a close eye on the macro-environment in the region, our business remains very strong and we believe several factors benefit us in China. One, we are building from a smaller base. We have 127 stores on Mainland at the end of the quarter and we see opportunity to continue to add. We have a — and take a localized approach to our brand, leveraging relationships locally in the community through ambassadors, instructors and influencers that has really resonated locally.