LSB Industries, Inc. (NYSE:LXU) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Mark Behrman: Yeah, I mean, that’s a really great question. I know that there is — significant activity in developing new ammonia powered engines and whether that’s a 100% ammonia or partial ammonia as a fuel source. That’s expected. The number of engine manufacturers are working on that and they’re testing and they talk about how there’s going to be a — actual engine to purchase or vessel to purchase with that engine, in 2025. Whether that happens or not, I don’t know that we’re close enough to it. But the other thing I’d say is, there’s going to be an additional cost to using either blue ammonia or green ammonia. On green ammonia, as I mentioned earlier, I don’t think we’re seeing yet people willing to pay a premium. And so that actually, I think, is going to put a cap on that.

There are niche applications much smaller applications that are less price sensitive that I think will be focused on zero carbon. But by and large, the large volumes of green ammonia that we’re talking about, whether it’s for power generation or the marine fuel or the marine industry, I think we’re going to need to see them be willing to pay a premium before there’s a lot of big off-take contracts for that. So, moving over to blue ammonia, look, I think that it’ll depend on how stringent the regulation some of the regulations are on really forcing ship owners to reduce their CO2 emissions, but there’ll be a cost to that. And so I think that’s really yet to play out.

Laurence Alexander: Okay. Thank you.

Operator: Our next question is from the line of Charles Neivert with Piper Sandler. Please just share with your questions.

Charles Neivert: Good morning One question, on the ammonia pricing, obviously pricing today is a lot higher than what you guys had sold into 4Q. So I’m assuming there’s not much, like you said, there’s not much of an impact 3Q to 4Q on ammonia price. But when you get into 1Q, will you be able to basically, you haven’t sold anything forward there. So assuming price flat, we should see a fairly significant increase in ammonia price for you guys in 1Q?

Mark Behrman: Yes, Charles, that would be the expectation. I agree.

Charles Neivert: Okay. And then in terms of the carbon capture deal. Let’s assume everything goes forward, it’s online when it’s supposed to. I know it’s sort of, I’m not sure what to call it, the sharing arrangement, whatever. Are they paying on a per ton basis or is there a flat fee that you guys are going to be getting each year under the assumption that the El Dorado plant is running at some operating level? Will it vary at all or is it just going to be, for lack of a better term, a locked in number every year going forward?

Mark Behrman: Yes, so there’s a minimum amount of CO2 that we have to sell them per year, but there is no ceiling on that. So the better that we can run that plant, the higher the fee that we would get since it’s on a per ton basis.

Charles Neivert: Okay. And then, I guess looking at that, is there anything in the contract, let’s say they think it goes swimmingly well, these subsidies continue, is there a buyout where you can basically buy any equipment, pay them out, become the player yourself instead of just the share?

Mark Behrman: There is the ability to negotiate something, but no, there is no price for a buyout.

Charles Neivert: Okay. And last question is, as of now, forgetting whether, you know, you can get the product up and down the Mississippi, what do conditions look like for fall ammonia application? Are we getting, well, we just started to see some cold weather starting to come in. When do you guys expect ammonia application or, you know, does it look, or is there snow already and that’s becoming a problem?

Mark Behrman: No, I think we’re going to have a good fall ammonia run. I think we’re just starting to hear rumblings of it. I wouldn’t suggest that it’s taken off or really started. So I think the weather, I mean, weather around the country looks like we had a cold spell, but now we’re warming up again. And here in Oklahoma City, I know we’ve warmed up significantly. So we still expect a lot of tons to move. And we’re kind of anxiously awaiting that.