Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

So when you contemplate all this together, it’s factored in our 2023 guidance and our long-term financial guidance. And as an investor community, sometimes we get challenged by our rural footprint of stores as a competitive disadvantage. When you discuss wage, it’s actually an advantage because most of the small and rural markets where we operate, we’re the highest paying retailer. And where we’re not, the local operators have a very, very specific process to follow to get wage adjusted. So our approach to wage is our strategy, and we feel really good about it, and our associates have responded well. And what I’ll do before I hand it to Brandon, I’m just going to let Joe McFarland talk a little bit about staffing levels and spring hiring, which, as you know, is a really big deal for us this time of the year.

Joe McFarland: Yeah. Karen, thanks for the question. And as it relates to our frontline associates, I’m very pleased with our staffing right now. This is the best staffing we’ve had in three years. And our spring hiring, as the markets come into season, is ahead of expectations. So very pleased with the team’s ability to staff and pivot wherever the challenges are.

Marvin Ellison: And so, Karen, in summation on that, we have a strategy, we feel great about it. We feel like it’s working for us, and we believe that our investment cycle, our commitment to our associates is something that is leading us to being truly an employee of choice in retail. And I’ll hand it over to Brandon to answer the other part of your question.

Brandon Sink: Yes. Karen, your first question on operating margin. We look at what we shared in December, a midpoint of the guide, down 1% and 13.7% in that moderate scenario. Our guidance is right in line, purely consistent with that, with the range that we provided just bookending those midpoints. So very consistent there.

Karen Short: Okay. Thank you, so much.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Lasser: Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. So, first, at the analyst meeting in December, you pointed to the most likely scenario being the robust market scenario or the moderate market scenario. The guidance now at the midpoint is squarely on the moderate market scenario, and at the low end could be closer to the weak market scenario. So what’s changed in the last 90 days or so to moderate your expectations for 2023? And then I have a follow-up.

Marvin Ellison: Yes. So, Michael, this is Marvin. At a high level, it’s lumber deflation. That pretty much sums it up. As Brandon mentioned, we’re going to have 300 basis points of headwind in Q1 and 100 basis points of headwind in Q2. Going into 2023, we looked at the first half of the year as our easiest compares. That remains. But when you throw in that lumber deflation, that pretty much sums up what’s different between what we discussed in December and what our guidance is.

Brandon Sink: Yes. And Michael, I’ll just add that the weak scenario that we called out, still very much sort of off the table for us. I think we called out at that point, it would require significant economic shock, and we don’t see that playing out. So we’re still very squarely in line with that moderate view. And just as a reminder, the downside, even in that week scenario was a 13.3% operating margin, so still 30 basis points of expansion even in that scenario.