Likewise, a lot of the money that is likely to move has moved to an extent already. So that works its way through. Alongside, of course, our internet access rates are getting progressively stronger and better for customers. So all of that means that we continue to expect to see PCA in the savings moves into H2. Likewise, within savings, we expect to see move to, but probably a flattening off in terms of the customer behaviors and that leads us to, as I said, suggests that the structural hedge change will be a modest reduction as we’ve defined. It is worth noting just before moving on from that, the structural hit the effect, if you like, in the structure of our journey. As I said in my comments earlier on, Guy, any more destruction is outweighed in fact, as we stand today, probably more than outweighed by the interest rate changes that we’ve seen.
And just to take a moment of that, if we look at Q1 versus Q2 today, we’ve seen the three-year rate up over 1 percentage point higher. Likewise, we’ve seen the five-year rate up almost 1 percentage point higher. These are significant moves in terms of the earnings rates on the hedge at which we will be deploying maturities. So I don’t think there’s any lack of confidence in the structural hedge as a hedge. I didn’t say lack of confidence in the earnings ability of the structural hedge as we move forward, Guy. This is more around tweaks around the edges. Second question, when we look at your — the base rate question that you asked and the floor around move — around margins, as I said, we’ve increased the margin guidance today from greater than 305 basis points to greater than 310 basis points.
That is off the back of bank base rate changes that we have seen being in excess of what we thought would happen at Q1. It is also complemented by deposit moves, perhaps, being a bit more benign than we had expected at Q1 to in line with the comments that I just made a second ago. As that flows through in the second half of this year, it is likely to lead to a margin performance for Q3 and Q4, that is a nudge ahead of where we have previously expected it and talked to you about either at year-end or Q1. So in that sense, the improved margin guidance of greater than 310 basis points does indeed flow through to a little nudge in respect of Q3 and Q4 and we’d expect to see that play out.
Guy Stebbings: Okay. Thank you. Very helpful.
Charlie Nunn: Thanks, Guys.
Operator: Thank you very much. Our next question today is from Chris Cant from Autonomous. Your line is unmuted. Please go ahead.
Chris Cant: Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. If I could just have a quick follow-up on the previous question and I have another one. So the follow-up is specifically thinking about what you’ve been seeing so far during July, has there been any real change in the sort of pace of customer behavior change and terming out that you’ve seen or has it really been sort of steady as you go so far for the third quarter? The other thing I wanted to ask about was the controversy that I think you’re referring to with your very initial remarks, Charlie. So do you see debanking as an issue potentially becoming a conduct problem for the U.K. banks. There’s obviously a lot of a focus on this at the moment. I’m very conscious that a lot of the decisions that you may have made in respect of customers may have been done for AML or other reasons.
But there does seem to be some political steam building up behind this issue and I’m just wondering whether you see any potential conduct risk around decisions you may have made in the recent past? Thank you.
Charlie Nunn: Thanks, Chris. Maybe William will build on the first question and then I’ll take the second one.
