Lloyds Banking Group plc (NYSE:LYG) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 15 of 19

Now I don’t want to kind of be held captive by that remark because, of course, we can’t dictate interest rates and exactly where they go. But based upon our forward look with these inputs that I’ve just given you, we’re looking at a number that is much closer to 50p. Final point on the TNAV, which I think is worth stressing, Rohith, is that none of this has anything to do with capital or distributions to you as shareholders and the market more generally. Whatever the movements are in TNAV, I appreciate they have been slightly volatile over the course of this half, but none of it has anything to do with capital generation or capital distributions and I think that’s just important and worthwhile for people to remember.

Rohith Chandra-Rajan: Thanks. Thank you very much.

William Chalmers: Thanks, Rohith.

Operator: Our next question is from Martin Leitgeb from Goldman Sachs. Your line is unmuted. Please go ahead.

Martin Leitgeb: Yes. Good morning. Can I have a follow-up on the outlook for net interest income. I was just wondering if you would be willing to comment on the trajectory for net interest income going forward. Obviously, multiple moving parts, the margin comments earlier, the comments on deposit migration somewhat fading as we progress and also the impact of hedge tailwinds or tailwinds on hedge rollover later in the year. Would it be fair to assume from your perspective that net interest income continues to build in absolute terms from here? And the second question, I was just wondering with regards to the health of the U.K. consumer, your disclosure on slide 23 in terms of average impact in terms of mortgage payments being up to GBP200 a month so far, potentially rising closer to GBP400 per year.

But we also disclosed that the average income for the mortgage falling off hold up is actually well above average for the U.K. at GBP75,000. Is the message here that you see the U.K. consumer holding up well so that basically rate growth in these categories potentially more than offsetting some of the headwinds from higher mortgage rates and the outlook for the U.K. consumer overall being fairly benign? Thank you.

William Chalmers: Yeah. Thanks, Martin. Why don’t I take the first of those two questions and then Charlie perhaps takes the second on mortgage payments? When we look at NII for 2023, we don’t guide to a particular number in respect of NII. What we do is give you a sense as to what we think average interest-earning assets are, what we think the margin expectations are going to be and then allow you to kind of draw your own conclusions around the NII contribution. So I won’t reach that line as it were. I won’t go beyond that. Safe to say that when we look at the NII expectations, net interest income expectations, it is those factors as given to you that are at play. I would also highlight the non-banking interest income as part of this.

We talked about it in Q1, clearly. It’s gone to about GBP80 million versus I think it was GBP74 million in Q1, so GBP80 million in Q2 versus GBP74 million in Q1. As I said earlier on, because our activities are increasing, and by the way, that does generate income in OOI amongst other lines. But as those activities increase the volumes of those activities increase, number one. And as rates increase, and therefore, the cost of funding the number two, that will nudge up non-banking interest income a little bit in Q3 and Q4, not terribly much, but we’ll see a slight movement in nonbanking interest income in accordance with that. And to those factors are at play in determining the net interest income over the course of this year and today is obviously not the year — the day rather to give guidance into 2024.

But hopefully, that’s useful without reaching too many of our guidance guidelines.

Page 15 of 19