Lloyds Banking Group plc (NYSE:LYG) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Charlie Nunn: Yeah. Rohith, we’re not being as specific as I think would be helpful. The reason is this is, we’re going to have to see how the competitive end customer behavior develops. What I can say is, I’ve managed businesses like this through rate cycles over the last 10 years in other countries. And the broad theme I just laid out, which is at least 200 basis points of margin, it takes two years to three years for customers to decide how they move their deposits and for the competition to play out. And when the landing point for rate is about 4%, that 50% is a good assumption. I will give you an example, in Mexico, when it was 7%, the 2% was compared to more like 4.5%, 5% pass-through after three years or four years of that cycle.

So, yes, you interpreted it right. We’re not going to fill out a very, very detailed forecast around this, because it’s going to be down to customer behavior and competitive behavior. But our assumptions to-date have been pretty helpful, I think, for you. We said people don’t typically start moving money until they get to about 3% base rate, which is what we saw happened last November and then we’ve guided that we will end up towards the 50% basis pass-through and our NIM guidance includes those assumptions around churn and pass-through. So it’s very hard to be more specific than that. I relational be unhelpful, but I do hope that you feel we have some track record here and we have some confidence and other experience that’s helpful to you as you develop your model here.

Rohith Chandra-Rajan: Yeah. That’s helpful. Thank you.

William Chalmers: Rohith, your question around TNAV. Again, just to repeat some of the inputs to that. As you know, the TNAV was down a fraction, well, about 0.7 pence in the course of the half, 3.9 pence in the course of the second quarter. As said in the discussion with Jonathan, the cash flow hedge reserve and responsible for about half of that. We have one or two other elements going on, notably the dividend and then the offsetting impact between the buyback going out and the number of shares being reduced. That also is a modest net negative contributing to the 3.9 pence per share down before you get the pension fund. Now as we move forward, your question is about how does that evolve? A couple of points to make there. One is the sensitivity, which I think we disclosed, certainly at the half year — at the full year, rather, I think, we disclosed.

It’s around GBP13 million — GBP12 million to GBP13 million post-tax for a 1-basis-point change in rates, so that will enable you to do a sensitivity based upon your expectation as to where rates will go. When we look at our expectations as to where rates will go, over the course of this year, we’ve given them to you in our forecast release, we do, as your question suggest, see quite a significant unwind in the context of the TNAV and particularly the cash flow hedge reserve in the second half of this year. Based upon that, based upon profitability based upon our expectations as to the buyback performance, the pension and so forth, we would expect to see the TNAV per share by the end of this year. I won’t give you a precise number, but much closer to 50p than where we stand today.

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