Lear Corporation (NYSE:LEA) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Jason Cardew: Yes, so let me start with time about 2023. The 2023 backlog that we issued last year is $1.450 billion, it’s now $1 billion. So it’s down by $450 million, $300 million of that’s in Seating, $150 million of that is in E-Systems. And it’s really attributed to two changes and customers’ production plans. Starting with Volvo, their original production plan for South Carolina had a different mix of vehicles and what they’re ultimately going to produce. And so in Seating we have EX90 SUV, electric SUV and the Polestar 3, but the ramp up of those is a little bit later than it was when that was originally awarded. So the impact on 2023 backlog is about $165 million and the impact of the overall change in their production plan is a negative impact of about $100 million to the three year backlog.

The second issue is with GMs ramp up of the battery electric truck Factory Zero and the Equinox EV in Mexico, the assumptions that we had used last year compared to now results in about $150 million reduction to the Seating backlog in 2023, but no impact to the three year backlog. In fact, it might be slightly positive overall for those programs. So those two things together about $315 million that’s been partially offset by this new conquest award which is going to launch at the very tail-end of the year, it’s about a $50 million improvement net FX is negative as well. In E-Systems over that same time period in 2023, we were down about $100 million. Its also due to the ramp-up timing on the GM battery-electric truck platform, we saw $40 million impact and then to lesser extent there is an impact on Volvo.

The Volvo production plant in North America as well. Now if you look out over a three year time period, the backlog in E-Systems is $25 million higher than it was last year and it’s the second largest three year backlog that we’ve ever had in E-Systems and if you look at Seatings backlog for three years at $1.8 billion, its higher than the 10 year average that we’ve had in the seat business. So it does support that continued growth over market that we have demonstrated over the last 10 years in the seat business and continued gains in market share. So, in addition to that I will point to 2025 being very like given that there’s lots of sourcing activity in both segments that will impact that number and we would expect to see that number considerably higher when we issue a new three year backlog 12 months from now.

Mark Delaney: Thank you for all those details. With respect to the 8% E-Systems margin target in 2025, thank you for all the details you gave on that. Could you elaborate a bit more on how much incremental bookings may be needed in order to get there and also what type of global production environment may be necessary in order to hit that 8% target. Thank you.

Jason Cardew: Yes, as we model 2025, we’re using IHS at this stage which is I think 89 million units in 2025. And there’s really no new business required beyond what’s already been booked in E-Systems to achieve that. So, it’s largely going to come through the improvement plan we outlined for connection systems and electronics and the growth in both of those areas combined with improvements in volume and commodity recovery and performance, driven by restructuring and other investments we’re making in the wire business.

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