Lear Corporation (NYSE:LEA) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Jason Cardew: In Altium, we have the battery electric truck platform the battery disconnect unit and we haven’t quantified the CPV but we’ve talked about BDUs generally $600 to $800, it’s content per vehicle. That saying that’s the CPV on that program but just kind of holistically looking across the market. And then we also had the Intercell Connect Board, which is a much lower CPV than the BDU but that’s on various Altium platforms. It’s not 100% of the volume, it’s dual source. And so, as I mentioned to an earlier question, we do expect to see lower revenue on the GM BDU in 2024 and probably 2025 given the announcement that they’ve made. But as we looked at our $1.3 billion revenue target for electrification products generally, we are in line with our previous expectations. So we’ve had new business awards with other customers since that target was established that have offset the impact of lower expected revenues on the BDU.

Emmanuel Rosner: Okay. That’s helpful. One quick follow-up. Do you do — do you supply wire harnesses also on Altium?

Jason Cardew: We do not. Well, we do have low-voltage wire for certain GM EV programs but not high voltage at this point.

Emmanuel Rosner: Understood. And then just as a quick follow-up. So I appreciate the comments around being on track feel sort of like the mid-decade target on EV. But can you just go back over the math around the 2024 EV exposure, because as you mentioned before it’s not just in E-Systems. It’s also obviously some EV platform within Seating. So can you just go back over sort of like the exposure you have there?

Jason Cardew: Yes. And again, we’ll provide a fuller update on the backlog as we always do in the fourth quarter earnings call, late January or early February. What I tried to do today is just highlight for the analyst modeling next year and for the investors listening to the call that obviously, the announcements by our customers would have an impact on the backlog that we had previously projected for 2024. It was previously estimated we have $1.5 billion of revenue. We don’t have a precise update to that. But most of the Seating revenue in the backlog has been electric vehicles, because most of the new vehicles customers are launching are electric vehicles. And then in E-Systems we’ve already talked through the GM BDU specifically.

And so I think it’s reasonable for one to assume, based on all the comments that customers have made that the backlog for 2024 would be 20% or so less than what we expected. At the same time, we’ve continued to win business at a pace that would allow for the three-year backlog that we published in February to be similar to the three-year backlog we published in February of this year, which is $2.85 billion overall for the company $1.08 billion in Seating and $1.05 billion in E-Systems. There may be a little bit of mix between the two segments, but I think that’s a reasonable expectation for the total backlog based on everything we’re seeing including the revisions to the volumes they described for Electric Vehicles.

Emmanuel Rosner: That’s extremely helpful. Thank you.

Jason Cardew: You’re welcome.

Operator: And ladies and gentlemen, our final question today will come from Joseph Spak from UBS. Please go ahead with your question.

Joseph Spak: Thanks everyone for squeezing me in. Jason, maybe just to follow on one last thing on the BEV units, like, if the units are — like I understand it’s a little bit lower in 2024 and 2025. But like, if it’s sustained lower than what you assumed for over a number of years from when you’ve been on the business. Do you have any recourse in that contract either recover costs or raise the piece price for what is produced?

Jason Cardew: Yeah. Absolutely, Joe. The customers have been very cooperative collaborative with regards to changes in their production plan. They understand the investments that we’ve made. They’ve worked with us. That’s part of what allowed us to reduce the capital spending this year push it out may eliminate it if the volumes don’t materialize. So we’re being much more deliberate in putting new capacity in. And then of course there are discussions around piece price tied to volume changes as well. So that’s absolutely the case. And one point I also want to highlight, when we established our backlog and published that last year we weren’t using customer planning volumes directly. We of course discount those. Even given that we believe that the volumes that they’ll come out with in their plans for next year may still be lower even than what the discounted volumes we used in our backlog.

Joseph Spak: Perfect. And if I could sneak one in just on the strike as we sort of look like we were starting to get back to work and hopefully that expands. One of the things we’ve been hearing about is a little bit more sort of maybe pain in the Tier 2 or Tier 3 level. Like are you seeing any stress in your suppliers that would either add some costs or make a ramp-up a little bit slower?

Jason Cardew: Yeah. I think that we’ve seen pressure in the lower tiers over the last two years with commodities and inflation. And certainly this didn’t help. I wouldn’t say that the strike has gone on long enough or have been deep enough to have a meaningful impact on that at this point. Maybe around the edges we’re seeing some modest effects from that. And I think in Seating one thing that helps us too is the vertical integration capabilities across the whole seat. So where we do have the structure in the supply base, we also have that flexibility to bring products in-house. We’ve done that from time to time as well where you’ve had a distressed supplier on an important program. We’ve brought that in-house to solve the issue. So we have other ways to remedy that too.

Joseph Spak: Okay. Perfect. Thank you.

Jason Cardew: You’re welcome.

Ray Scott: Okay. Great, I think probably the only ones left on the call at this point would be the Lear team. And so I’ll say a few words. One great quarter. You guys have — everyone worked extremely hard despite some external challenges we are faced with a really nice quarter. I want to thank you for all your hard work. And again, just we talk about it the incredible recognition not only from our customers but J.D. Power and the recognitions that we get from third-party just continue to validate what a great job we’re doing and how we’re focused to continue to drive excellence. I want to thank the team. I mean, I don’t think everyone appreciates except for the team that’s been working on it nonstop the incredible unprecedented launch that we had with the Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer.

Frank the team did a great job industry first never been done and just — one jinx is but incredible job really, really special. And I just want to again just recognize the team the overall performance on OI and generating that cash really nice job. And I know we will, but let’s finish this year strong. We got one more quarter left, but let’s kick it in another gear and get this quarter done. Thanks you guys.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we’ll conclude today’s conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

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