Lancaster Colony Corporation (NASDAQ:LANC) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Connor Rattigan: Got it. Okay. That makes total sense. And then also, two, just on Foodservice as well, right? So I guess you guys noted a bit of a slowdown in Foodservice traffic, but it sounds like Chick-fil-A traffic is doing quite well. So I guess, I mean, the general slowdown in traffic kind of somewhat runs in contrast, what we’ve heard from peers. I mean, I guess, was this maybe more of a recent phenomenon? Or was it a pretty steady slowdown throughout the quarter? And I mean, I guess, maybe could you comment sort of was this more indexed to certain QSRs or maybe other channels?

Dave Ciesinski: Yes, it’s a great question, and it’s interesting. If you look at the 52-week traffic, the 12-week traffic and the 4-week, so for June, June was a slowdown for several of our customers that were in there. Chick-fil-A, it was not. Chick-fil-A was kind of flat through the period, but we had other customers that seen from a traffic perspective to slow down a little bit in June. Now ironically, we’re looking at weekly data thereafter and into July, they seem to be doing a little bit better thereafter. So we think that also contributed to the gap between Foodservice.

Connor Rattigan: Got it. Okay. That was helpful. And then I guess just 1 more as well, right? So on the cost front, it sounds like you guys are seeing quite a bit of relief. I guess what we’ve heard from other folks, too, is soybean oil and whatnot still tends to remain quite high. I mean, I guess, is your optimism on the cost environment just centered around maybe egg prices coming down? And also, as we sort of think about that as it relates to gross margins in 2024, with the carryover pricing you guys have and productivity in the mix as well, I mean, I guess, would it be fair to assume the expectation is a return to historical gross margin levels?

Dave Ciesinski: Well, maybe I’ll kind of walk through those — that range of questions and start first with just an inflation outlook, and then I’ll turn it over to Tom, and he’ll take you through more depth. Part of our frame of reference here is the last 2 years, fiscal year ’22 and ’23, we saw 20% inflation. So on a relative basis, we’re looking at a year this year, where we’re seeing inflation on a gross basis in the low single digits. Really eggs being most certainly a contributor to that, and then we’re seeing an easing on some of our other commodity classes as well. So certainly not deflationary, but we’re not expecting it to be nearly in the range of which it was. So I think that whole piece is really all about being relative. Maybe with that, Tom, I’ll turn it over to you if you have want to help with some of the commodity cost.

Tom Pigott: Yes. So great question, Connor. So as we look at our commodity basket for next year, we still are slightly inflationary. I think our comments are more that the level of inflation has started to go down. Sweeteners, obviously, a key item for us. It’s up considerably year-over-year. that’s mitigating or offsetting some of the favorability we’re seeing elsewhere. As you look at the broader margin profile as we enter fiscal year ’24. From a PNOC standpoint, given that we’re still looking at some level of inflation, we’re not assuming that we’re going to get back some of that margin that you alluded to, we really need to get into more of a deflationary environment to assume that? And then the second thing is, obviously, this consumer environment is something we’re monitoring closely.

And like other companies, we’re concerned about the need to spend back and to reinvest in our retail business to continue to drive the outsized volume growth that we do. But last, I would end with, we feel — in terms of a tailwind, we feel like we do have a robust productivity plan put into place for next year that will help us to offset some of these potential headwinds.