Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:LW) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Bernadette Madarieta: Yeah. So, we did have some contracts where that pricing took effect in the back half of the year. I think it’s key, though, to — as you look at the back half of the year to expect to see a deceleration from the 17% that we delivered in the first half as we continue to lap those price increases. But yes, we will see the impact of those contracts that are coming up to — are affecting our pricing in the back half of the year, just like we always have.

Peter Galbo: Got it. Okay. And then, Tom, maybe just back to the Investor Day, I know there was a conversation around getting back to algorithm kind of in fiscal ’25 and noting some of the volume challenges that you’ll begin to lap by then and maybe into Q4. I mean is that kind of still the expectation where we sit today relative to October that as we get into ’25, the volume trends could at least get back to what you stated as kind of the long-term algorithm? Thanks very much.

Tom Werner: Yeah, Peter, we fully expect to continue to drive and deliver our algorithm over the long term as we stated in October. And we’re working all the channels to deliver that. And as we have in the past, we’ve been very consistent on meeting those commitments. And I expect and as we look forward, with the category and how we’re getting positioned with some of the capacity additions, I fully expect us to drive volume and meet our commitments as we talked about in October.

Peter Galbo: Great. Thanks very much, guys.

Operator: We’ll now take our next question from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

Andrew Lazar: Great. Good morning, everybody.

Tom Werner: Good morning, Andrew.

Andrew Lazar: I guess to start with, I was wondering if you’re able to sort of help us quantify a little bit, maybe how much sort of volume gets pushed from Q3 to Q4 based on some of the cutover dynamics that you mentioned. I’m really trying to get a sense of about what like the underlying sort of volume picture looks like for Q4, particularly as it relates to as we move into next year.

Bernadette Madarieta: Yeah, Andrew, I think the way to think about that is we’re not going to quantify any amount. But certainly, there are some shipments that would be retail and food service that would be lost in third quarter, whereas the chain would be more of a carryover. So, again, down or it’s going to be tempered in terms of the any increase as it relates to volume in the third quarter, but definitely positive in the fourth quarter as we had originally projected.

Andrew Lazar: If we excluded some of the cutover dynamics, do you think volume in 4Q would have been positive anyway or maybe closer to flattish or even down a little bit, maybe…

Bernadette Madarieta: No, absolutely positive in the fourth quarter. That’s what we’ve been anticipating since we gave our July guidance and it continues to remain sound.

Andrew Lazar: Great. Thanks for that. And then, Tom, I’m curious, you obviously walked away from some lower-margin customers in the back half of last year that you’re going to start to lap as we go into the back half of this year. And as you start to replace or start to add in new customers with some of the new capacity coming in, I’m curious where were those maybe some of these new customers that you’re gaining? Where were they or have they been getting supply from before? And are you displacing others now that you have some capacity? Or — I’m trying to get a sense of — because it doesn’t seem like you’ve ever gone anywhere and not been able to get French fries. So, I’m just wondering where some of these new customers were sourcing product maybe before you became a supplier to them, if that makes sense?

Tom Werner: Yeah, Andrew, I understand the question. I’m not going to get into very specifics on customers or where it’s coming from. But ideally, we have line of sight to markets, opportunities as we go through our normal contracting season coming up, ideally, it’d be perfect timing, but it doesn’t always match when you potentially win business. But we do have a plan. We have line of sight, and I’m not going to get into specifics of where and who and with respect to our customers, and I’ll just leave it at that, Andrew.

Andrew Lazar: Okay. Thank you.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] We’ll take our next question from Marc Torrente with Wells Fargo Securities.

Marc Torrente: Hey, good morning. Thanks for the question. It sounds like trends are a little softer than the initial plan from January ’23, but you noted demand remained solid relative to the initial guide. Could you maybe reconcile some of that commentary [indiscernible] some of those trends and traffic that you’re seeing that gives you confidence on volumes improving on an underlying basis?

Tom Werner: Yeah. As I stated, the crop acres, potato yields, based on what we always — what we plan for in the initial front end of the crop cycle, certainly was better than what we expected and have seen in the last several years. And the overall forecast, as I stated earlier, that we had in terms of overall volume and sales was a little softer than what we had originally planned. As we’ve been consistent, the guidance we gave in July and continue — and we upped it in October was based on the forecast we were seeing at the time. And so, certainly, there’s — it was not as good as we had planned when we planted the crop. But again, to Bernadette, as she reiterated, we see our forecast from July in terms of sales and volume has not really changed for the balance of the year.

So, it’s really just crop acre yield issue that caused a write-off based on what we initially forecasted in July for FY ’24. So again, we feel confident about the underlying fundamentals of the business, where we’re at our guidance from last time has not changed, and we see line of sight to Q4 volume improving, as we’ve stated on this call. So, all things are pointing towards sequential improvement for the balance of the year, albeit just keep in mind that Q3 is going to have some challenges with the ERP cutover.

Bernadette Madarieta: And Tom, if I could add to that, when we made the initial estimate and planted those acres, you guys see the same data that we do. And U.S. restaurant traffic trends have slowed since that time, and that was included in our updated July forecast. But the fry attachment rate continues to be about pre-pandemic levels and continues to be strong, as Tom mentioned.