Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ:LRCX) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Vivek Arya: I guess maybe just to clarify, does your CSBG business start to kind of grow consistent with the growth in your tools business overall? Or do you think there is going to be a lag factor because it slowed down later? Does it start to regrow later also?

Douglas Bettinger: Depends on the rate of growth in WFE to be perfectly frank, that are coming. See, spare service upgrades chug along, and we think that’s going to benefit as utilization and whatnot begins to come back. Then to really answer your question, you got to go figure out what you think the pace of WFE growth is. I’m not going to put numbers on that right now. We’re going to kind of wait and see.

Operator: The next question is from Krish Sankar with CDT Cowen.

Krish Sankar: First of all, for Doug. I think Doug has mentioned about a gradual recovery in WFE this year, kind of more back half rated. So I’m kind of curious, and Doug, I’m not looking for like guidance. What I’m just wondering is, is this better assume Lam’s revenues in the calendar second half of 2024 is going to be better than first half? That’s for my first question and then I have a follow-up.

Douglas Bettinger: You’re a little bit muffled, Krish, but I think you were asking about our performance along with WFE. And frankly, I think we will mirror whatever the trajectory of WFE looks like with an expectation that etch and dep outgrows to a certain extent. I think I answered your question, although you were a little bit muffled there.

Krish Sankar: Doug, I was just trying to wonder if calendar second half ’24 revenue for Lam is going to be better than calendar first half similar to WFE?

Douglas Bettinger: Yes, I think it will be, Krish, I’m not going to put numbers on it yet, but we will mirror what goes on with WFE.

Krish Sankar: Got it. Got it. Okay. And then my follow-up is for Tim and Doug. You spoke about HBM and AI and all the good stuff. I’m just wondering does HBM and DDR5, 2 sets for dep and etch differ from DDR4 and Legacy in a way, is it more like [indiscernible] from a margin standpoint? Or does it — is it like a mutual standpoint?

Douglas Bettinger: I guess what I’d say, Krish, from a margin standpoint, you shouldn’t think about any differential margin necessarily. The incremental piece for the stuff that goes in high-bandwidth memory is a bigger die, you know that. The die itself, building a DDR5 die is largely the same equipment that builds DDR5 that doesn’t go into HBM. The incremental stuff comes when you go into the advanced packaging stuff, the Syndion deep silicon etch and the electroplating are areas where we are extraordinarily strong in addition to some other things. That is clearly incremental equipment.

Timothy Archer: Yes. And I think from an etch and dep intensity perspective, in general, I think you mentioned DDR5 to DD — DDR4 to DDR5. I mean I think in general, with each technology node evolution, whether it’s DRAM, NAND, Foundry Logic, we’ve said etch and dep intensity rises with technology advancement. And so I think you can imagine that there’s more equipment being needed, and that’s in addition to the fact that larger die sizes drive greater equipment per bid out. So there’s a lot of factors that every time we move forward, there’s more equipment and more Lam equipment required with those technology nodes.

Operator: The next question is from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

Joseph Moore: If I can ask about your DRAM systems revenues in the December quarter. They were kind of back to the highs of a couple of years ago, but I know you had some China in there, I think there’s some of the events packaging. Can you just give us a sense for what’s kind of core DRAM within that? And then you’re pretty constructive on where that’s going. Can you give us a sense of the dynamics of China going forward versus other regions and other parts of DRAM?

Douglas Bettinger: I guess, Joe, I would just to take you back to what I had in my script. Two things are driving the strength in DRAM in the December quarter, and you mentioned both of them, frankly. It’s high bandwidth memory in DDR5. In addition to the fact that we’ve got a China customer in DRAM in the second half of the year. That includes September and December, that wasn’t in the first half. So each of those things contribute to the strength you saw in December.

Joseph Moore: Okay. And then looking forward, it seemed like you had more than 6 months of demand from that China customer in the second half going forward. Does that come down, but core DRAM comes up and HVM comes up?

Douglas Bettinger: Probably.

Operator: The next question is from Brian Chin with Stifel.

Brian Chin: Maybe going back to NAND, the best ever quarter for NAND spending was probably higher than the total level of NAND spending maybe for all of last year. And so even if it’s off a low base, isn’t it pretty logical that NAND WFE should exhibit the largest or highest rate of improvement in ’24?

Douglas Bettinger: I wouldn’t necessarily draw that conclusion, Brian. I think all we’re going to tell you is that I think every segment WFE grows this year, NAND, DRAM, Foundry, Logic, it’s all up to a certain extent. I’m not going to get into the business of quantifying each individual one because frankly, at the end of the day, we’ll get it wrong. But I think everything will grow to a certain extent with peers.