Kosmos Energy Ltd. (NYSE:KOS) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Matt Smith: Hi, there. Thanks very much. I just wondered if I come back to the free cash flow guidance for 2023, please. And I guess just in light of how that compares to the results in 2022, given the production, I guess, broadly flat. It’s slightly up, CapEx broadly the same. Clearly, there’s a macro element. But I think on — due to the hedges in 2022, your post-hedge realized price wasn’t too far from what we see on this group today. So I just want to make sure if I’m missing anything in terms of moving parts for free cash flow in 2023, please? And then I think a related follow-up would probably be just to check on shareholder returns. Am I interpreting the comments correctly that that’s probably a story for 2024 if we’re looking at further deleveraging across 2023, please?

Neal Shah: Yes, sure, Matt. The — yes, so when you sort of reconcile €˜23 versus €˜22, clearly, production is higher, and we’re sort of forecasting a lower sort of oil price, which is the biggest sort of impact to that free cash flow number. As you noted, hedges aren’t a headwind. We’ve put in the floors around in the 70s and have ceilings up to 110 on average. And so we’ve got much better access to higher oil prices as the year goes down — as the year goes on. OpEx clearly is trending slightly higher, but it’s lower on a per barrel basis given sort of the increased amount of production we’re running through. Just from a free cash flow perspective, as you said, sort of CapEx is about the same. There is a bit higher interest cost, just given we do have some variable rate debt and then cash taxes are a bit higher, partially just reflecting timing.

So easy taxes are paid sort of year arrears. And therefore, the benefit we got from last year will pay a little higher tax on that front this year. But on the whole, we generated about $400 million to $350 million of free cash flow last year at $100 oil. The sensitivity is still around $100 for every $5 in oil price, and we’re assuming sort of oil price between sort of 80% and 85%. So that’s the biggest portion of the difference

Matt Smith: Perfect. Thank you very much. And just on the shareholder distributions.

Neal Shah: Sorry, can you repeat the question Matt.

Matt Smith: Yes. Sure. Sorry, I just wanted to double check whether I was interpreting the comments correctly. I think you referenced that 100% of free cash flow in €˜23 will go to deviate the balance sheet. So therefore, are we thinking about shareholder returns B&A 2024 story?

Neal Shah: Correct. Yes. I think that’s the way to think about it. I think as we get towards through the sort of midyear inflection point, we’ll be closer to the point to where we can provide sort of external guidance in terms of what that looks like in €˜24 and beyond. I think there are clearly a number of moving parts, both on the oil price and the project side that we are working through. And like I said, it is an active discussion with the Board in terms of what is the quantum and inform of those — of that shareholder return policy. But it is a 24 plus given sort of oil prices backed off a bit from where they were six months ago.

Matt Smith: Perfect. Well, thank very much, guys. Appreciate the color.

Andy Inglis: Great. Thanks, Matt.

Operator: Thank you. At this time, we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. With that, I would like to bring the call to a close. Thanks to everyone for joining today. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

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