Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (NYSE:KNX) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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David Jackson: Yes. Todd, it’s hard for us to just generalize the whole thing because we have pieces of business that still need to be increased in rates because of how it works and how it fits into our network and the fact that we continue to see inflation. We do have other parts where sometimes we have an opportunity to maybe make a concession, help a customer who’s trying to hit a budget target or goal if things are working in a super-efficient way and perhaps, to Adam’s point, the time in the cycle when that rate was renewed. But this is not an across-the-board answer that the rates are automatically down. That’s just not the case.

Adam Miller: Yes. Because I think we mentioned that some of our dedicated business, I think that’s what David’s alluded to, we’ll have to increase because of how it’s performing. And I think — that’s, I think, a typical hedge and an environment that we’re faced with when you have OTR and dedicated, they perform differently in these type of environments.

Todd Fowler: Yes. Understood. No, it’s helpful context. Just really trying to think about that expectation for that positive inflection in the fourth quarter, which certainly would seem to be positive?

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

Ravi Shanker: So I think, Dave, you said, I think it was about a year ago now, that you think trough EPS has a $4 on it, and clearly, your guidance for the year implies that you’re comfortably above that level. But if I were to kind of just like take a step back and listen to what you’ve been saying on this call so far, kind of talking about the cycle actually not being as bad as prior cycles and a midyear inflection and everything else, it doesn’t really sound that bad. And in that context, kind of the guide seems kind of punitive at this point, especially given that you have a really easy fourth quarter comp in ’23. So I’m just thinking of like are there any puts and takes in some of the non-TL segments that we need to keep in mind?

Or kind of what are some of the kind of the moving parts and maybe the bull case or the bear case that can get you to a higher number than what you’ve guided to or a lower number at the cycle turned out to be much worse than you expected?

David Jackson: Yes. Well, I mean, the full Truckload still represents 2/3 of our earnings. So the full Truckload is by far the piece that gets — that moves the needle the most. So when we look at what we would expect for them to earn in the first half of the year, that’s going to be less than 50% of what our annual guidance would be. So I don’t know if it’s 45-55, 45% in the front half of the year, 55% in the back half of the year. But it’s not like we’re looking at a back half that’s a total hail Mary in order to get over $4 a share. But I will tell you that for us to achieve more than $4 a share would be a tremendous accomplishment, recognizing that here in 2022, we just earned $5 — just over $5 a share with such a tremendous environment.

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