Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (NYSE:KNX) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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And in many cases, deferring maintenance for example just routine oil change maintenance. And so it just feels like there is a lot of folks out there that are just barely getting by with credit cards maxed out, hoping that they don’t have to buy a tire over the road or have any other kind of mechanical failure. And so that’s what it feels like, it’s — to be honest, we’re a little puzzled as to why we haven’t seen more capacity come out because if you look at spot rates on an absolute basis, these levels on an absolute basis were enough to send the market in 2017 into a strengthening position because of the atrophy of supply. And so if you compare the cost structure and what inflation has done, it’s hard to imagine that you could have the same absolute spot rate and yet have higher-cost and still get buy, so it feels like more survival than anything else.

James, but we’re watching anxiously and trying to understand that better ourselves.

Unidentified Participant: Got it. Small follow-up, is there anything at the end-of-the year like maintenance events, insurance renewals, or anything else that might be sort of a catalyst over in the fourth quarter for exits? Thank you for the time.

David Jackson: Yeah. I don’t know that there is one event. I mean I — they — those kind of renewals and registrations happen routinely. It does feel like they do get a little bit bunched up towards the end and beginning of the year, but I don’t really have a place that could point to validate that, that’s just kind of a feeling, but I don’t think there is one event like that.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Bruce Chan from Stifel. Your line is open.

Bruce Chan: Hey, good evening, gents. Maybe just wanted to ask one here on core demand. I know you’ve got a pretty diverse base of customers, but is there anything that you’ve been seeing in terms of end-markets that may be worth calling out, especially anything around food and bev and what, at least one big shipper talked about with regard to lower spending due to Ozempic, anything related to industrial, NTL or LTL related to the UAW, anything there just maybe be material enough to affect your outlook for the rest of the year.

David Jackson: Adam and I are looking to each other and both kind of shaking our heads like no. So, I think what’s been a little different this year is we have seen some — a little more seasonality through the beverage season and a little bit of produce in the second quarter that we saw none of last year, seen a little bit around the holidays, which is more of a food and beverage play but haven’t seen any.

Adam Miller: Yes. I think there is maybe some specific customers who maybe, had made more progress on inventory than others that might see a different demand pattern than others, but I think that’s more specific to their strategy versus something that’s broader to a certain sector.

Bruce Chan: Perfect, good news. Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Jon Chappell from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Q – Jon Chappell: Thank you. Good afternoon. Adam, maybe better-for-you. I know it’s not a core business, but it does tend to move the needle pretty significantly, the insurance business. Just looking for a little bit of clarity there and if we take the midpoint, what you’ve kind of guided to for the fourth quarter, and that looks like $40 million EBIT drag. I know you’re evaluating strategic alternatives. But as we think about how that plays into 2024, it seems like it’s pretty cycle-independent first and foremost, is that a business that goes back to kind of breakeven in 2024? Is it a first-half drag that maybe you get a bit of a second-half recovery or is it just kind of a lesser loss line item for 2024?

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