Kirby Corporation (NYSE:KEX) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Kirby Corporation (NYSE:KEX) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript January 31, 2023

Operator: Good morning, and welcome to the Kirby Corporation 2022 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. We ask that you limit your questions to one question and one follow-up. Please note this is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Kurt Niemietz, Kirby’s VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

Kurt Niemietz: Good morning and thank you for joining us. With me today are David Grzebinski, Kirby’s President and Chief Executive Officer; and Raj Kumar, Kirby’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. A slide presentation for today’s conference call, as well as the earnings release, which was issued earlier today, can be found on our website at www.kirbycorp.com. During this conference call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings press release and are also available on our website in the Investor Relations section under Financials. As a reminder, statements contained in this conference call with respect to the future are forward-looking statements.

These statements reflect management’s reasonable judgment with respect to future events. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated as a result of various factors, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the company’s business. A list of these risk factors can be found in Kirby Corp’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021 and in our other filings made with the SEC from time-to-time. I will now turn the call over to David.

David Grzebinski: Thank you, Kurt, and good morning, everyone. Before we get into the details of our fourth quarter and full-year results, I’d like to take a moment to touch on a press release we issued earlier this month. The Board initiated a process in early 2022 with the support of our independent financial and legal advisors to review a range of alternatives, including a potential sale or spin-off of the Distribution and Services business. The Board is keenly focused on maximizing value for shareholders and regularly reviews and actively manages Kirby’s portfolio. Following a thorough exploration of potential options, including discussions with a number of potential strategic and financial counterparties, the Board concluded that under current financial market conditions, the best way to enhance shareholder value is to continue to execute on our strategic plan for both the marine transportation and distribution service business.

As always, we remain committed to maximizing value for shareholders. And we’ll continue to evaluate all opportunities to do so. But as you know, the difficult financing environment is impacting the ability of both sponsors and strategics to pursue and consummate transactions. We have deep operational expertise and unique capabilities that position both of our businesses to deliver long-term growth and enhanced performance. This is underscored by our strong financial results and operating performance in 2022. We are encouraged by the bright prospects of the company’s two segments and look forward to continuing to operate these businesses from a position of strength. Now turning to our financial results. Earlier today, we announced fourth quarter revenue of $730 million and adjusted earnings of $0.67 per share.

This compares to 2021 fourth quarter revenue of $591 million and adjusted earnings of $0.27 per share. Both of our segments performed well during the quarter delivering significantly higher revenue and operating income year-over-year. The fourth quarter’s results reflected steady market fundamentals in both marine transportation and distribution and services, partially offset by unfavorable weather and low water conditions, normal seasonal slowness, as well as ongoing supply chain challenges that delayed deliveries in distribution and services. In Inland Marine transportation, strong refinery utilization led to steady demand with our overall barge utilization running in the 90% range. Tight market conditions, due to strong demand and limited supply of barges coupled with continued inflationary pressures, put upward pressure on prices with spot prices up in the low single-digits sequentially and in the 20% to 25% range year-over-year.

Term contracts also reviewed up in the 10% to 15% range versus a year ago. Overall, fourth quarter Inland revenues increased 24% year-over-year and margins improved into the low teens range. Low water conditions on the Mississippi River, as well as the onset of winter weather made for difficult operating conditions in the quarter with a significant increase in delay days. While we continue to pace headwinds with inflationary pressure in the quarter, we started to witness some moderation and operating margins continue to improve reaching their highest level since 2020. In coastal, market conditions steadily improved with our barge utilization in the low to mid-90% range and some incremental pricing gains with spot prices up in the low to mid-single-digits sequentially.

Better coal shipments in our dry cargo business also contributed to improved revenues and increased operating margins. Overall, fourth quarter coastal revenues increased 8% year-over-year and operating margins were in the low single-digits. In Distribution and Services, demand remained strong across our markets with continued growth in new orders and backlog. In manufacturing, revenues were up sequentially and year-over-year, driven by healthy demand for our environmentally friendly pressure pumping equipment and power generation equipment for e-frac. However, as expected, significant supply chain issues delayed many new equipment deliveries during the quarter. We continue to work diligently to manage continued supply chain challenges. In our Commercial and Industrial market, overall demand remains solid across our different businesses with growth coming from the marine repair, power generation and on highway sectors.

In summary, our fourth quarter results reflected continued strength in market fundamentals for both segments, despite meaningful weather and supply chain challenges. The Inland market is inflecting nicely, demand is strong and rates are moving higher. While the coastal market remains challenged near-term by industry-wide supply dynamics. Our barge utilization is good and we’ve realized modest rate improvements. Strong demand in Distribution and Services is contributing to further growth in our backlog, while supply chain issues are expected to persist for the foreseeable future, the outlook for the market is strong. We continue to focus on working safely, efficiently and responsibly to meet and exceed our customer needs and expect to drive incremental earnings growth into 2023 and into 2024.

I’ll talk more about our outlook later, but first I’ll turn the call over to Raj to discuss the fourth quarter segment results and the balance sheet.

Raj Kumar: Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter of 2022, marine transportation revenues were $423 million and operating income was $47 million with an operating margin of 11.1%, compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, marine revenues increased $72 million or 21% and operating income increased $21 million or 82%. Compared to third quarter of 2022, marine revenues were down 2% and operating income increased by 12%. As David mentioned, the historic low water conditions on the Mississippi River ¸as well as freezing weather along the Gulf Coast that curtailed refinery and plant utility made in the quarter negatively impacted operations. These negative factors were partially offset by solid underlying customer demand and improved pricing.

The Inland business contributed approximately 80% of segment revenue. Average barge utilization was in the 90% range for the quarter, which is similar to the utilization seen in the third quarter of 2022, and compares to the mid to high-80% range in the fourth quarter of 2021. Long-term Inland marine transportation contracts or those contracts in the term of one year or longer contributed approximately 55% of revenue with 60% from time charters and 40% from contracts of affreightment. Improved market conditions contributed to spot market rates increasing sequentially in the low single-digits and in the low to mid-20% range year-over-year. Term contracts that renewed during the fourth quarter . On average in the 10% to 15% range, compared to the prior year.

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, Inland revenues increased 24%, primarily due to increased barge utilization, higher term and spot contract pricing and increased fuel rebuilds as the average cost per diesel was up 60% year-over-year. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, Inland revenues were down 2%, driven by unfavorable operating conditions due to low water on the Mississippi River and winter weather. Inland operating margins were negatively impacted by 147% sequential increase in delay days. However, the margins were in the low-teens and improved both sequentially and year-over-year as delay days and inflationary cost headwinds were more than offset by gains in pricing. The coastal business represented 20% of revenues for the Marine Transportation segment.

Average coastal barge utilization was in the low to mid-90% range, which compares to the 90% range in the fourth quarter of 2021. During the quarter, the percentage of coastal revenue under term contracts was approximately 65% of which approximately 90% were time charters. Average spot market rates were up in the low to mid-single-digit sequentially and renewals of term contracts were higher in the low teen range year-over-year. During the quarter, coastal revenues increased 8% year-over-year with improved barge utilization, higher contract prices and higher field rebuilds. Overall, coastal had a positive operating margin in the low single-digits. With respect to our tank barge fleet for both the Inland and Coastal businesses, we have provided a reconciliation of the changes in the fourth quarter, as well as projections for 2023.

This is included in our earnings call presentation posted on our website. Now I’ll review the performance of the Distribution and Services segment. Revenues for the fourth quarter of 2022 were $307 million with operating income of $17 million, compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, the Distribution and Services segment saw revenue increased by $67 million or 28% with operating income increasing by $10 million or 127%, when compared to the third quarter of 2022, revenues decreased by $5.4 million or 2% and operating income decreased by $5.2 million. The sequential decrease in revenue and operating income was attributed to ongoing supply chain delays, as well as some seasonal slowness activity. In the oil and gas market, favorable commodity prices and increased rigs and completions activity contributed to a 44% year-on-year increase in revenues.

We experienced strong demand for new entrants and parts throughout the quarter. As David mentioned, we continue to navigate a tough supply chain environment, especially in our manufacturing business. Despite the supply chain headwinds, the manufacturing business experienced continued favorable trends in new orders and backlog. Overall, oil and gas represented approximately 42% of segment revenue in the fourth quarter and had operating margins in the low single-digits. On the commercial and industrial side, strong activity contributed to an 18% year-over-year increase in revenues with improved demand for equipment, parts and service in our marine repair and on highway businesses. Power generation was also up year-over-year. Compared to third quarter of 2022, commercial and industrial revenues increased by 8%.

Our Thermal King business continued to experience delays due to supply chain constraints that impacted revenue growth. However, this headwind was offset by increased activity in marine, power generation and on-highway repair. Overall, the commercial and industrial business represented approximately 58% of segment revenue and had an operating margin in the high single-digits during the fourth quarter. Now I’ll turn to the balance sheet. As of December 31, we had $81 million of cash with total debt at $1.1 billion and our debt to capital ratio improved to 26.2%. During the quarter, we had cash flow from operations of $132.9 million and we generated cash proceeds from asset sales of retired marine equipment of $4 million. We used cash flow and cash on hand to fund $52.3 million of capital expenditures or CapEx, primarily related to maintenance of equipment.

During the quarter, we decreased debt by $39 million. There was no repurchases of company stock during the quarter given the blackout associated with the company’s strategic review. As of December 31, we have total available liquidity of approximately $585 million. For 2023, we expect to generate cash flow from operations of $480 million to $580 million. We continue to work through supply chain constraints that are challenging working capital in the near-term, but we expect to unwind most of this working capital as orders shipped in 2023 and into 2024. With respect to CapEx, we plan to provide further guidance on 2023 expected CapEx later this year as we gain more clarity on projects, including planned shipyards and the impact of supply chain delays.

We are committed to a balanced capital allocation approach and will use this cash flow to opportunistically return the capital to shareholders and continue to pursue long-term value creating niche investment and acquisition opportunities. I will now turn the call back to David to discuss the remainder of our outlook for 2023.

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David Grzebinski: Thank you, Raj. As discussed, we achieved strong fourth quarter results in both our segments and we expect that to continue into the first quarter. In Marine steady demand driven in large part by high refinery utilization and chemical plant utilization should continue to support high barge utilization. Limited new barge construction combined with inflationary pressures are expected to further support Inland rate increases. While all of this is very encouraging, we are mindful of the ever-changing economic landscape and the potential recession. We continue to expect refinery and petrochemical plant activity to remain high with an increase in customer volumes. Barge availability is constrained as there is minimal new barge construction expected in 2023.

These positive factors are expected to contribute to our barge utilization running in the low to mid-90% for the foreseeable future. These favorable supply and demand dynamics are expected to drive further improvements in the spot market, which currently represents approximately 40% of our Inland revenues. We also expect continued improvement in term contract pricing as renewals occur throughout the year. Overall, we expect Inland revenues will grow approximately below double-digits year-over-year and expect near-term Inland operating margins, the average in the mid-teens and to continue to gradually improve throughout 2023 ending the year close to if not 20%. In Coastal, market conditions are expected to remain steady, but will remain somewhat challenged near-term by underutilized barge capacity across the industry.

Even with some market softness Kirby’s coastal barge utilization is expected to remain in the low to mid-90% range. Full-year 2023 coastal revenues are expected to be flat year-over-year, driven primarily by continued good fundamentals in our core liquid cargo business and higher coal shipments in our dry cargo business, offset by the company’s plant, maintenance and ballast water treatment installations, which are driving an almost doubling of maintenance days, compared to 2022. Operating margins for coastal are expected to be near breakeven to low single-digits on a full-year basis. Looking at distribution and services, we have a favorable outlook with anticipated strong demand for equipment parts and service distribution and a growing backlog .

In the oil and gas market, high commodity prices, increased rig counts and growing well completions activity are expected to yield strong demand for manufacturing and OEM products — parts and service in the distribution business. We expect the current commodity price environment will contribute to further increases in rig count and frac activity in 2023. U.S. land rig counts have grown to over 770 rigs, which represented a full-year average increase in 2022 of approximately 28% and we expect that growth to continue into 2023. Similarly, the active frac spread count is approaching 295. With this growth, we expect to see increasing demand for engine parts and service in distribution. In manufacturing, we have a growing backlog position. We added new incremental orders in the fourth quarter and we expect this trend will continue As I mentioned earlier, we expect that supply chain issues and long lead times from four OEM equipment, which in some cases are extending beyond a year to remain a challenge.

These issues are likely to contribute to some choppiness with new product deliveries, which could potentially shift between quarters in 2023 and perhaps even into 2024. In Commercial and Industrial, we are forecasting steady demand in on-highway with increased on-highway and municipal repair work, continued improvement in bus ridership and increased demand for Thermo King refrigeration products offset by lingering supply chain delays. In power generation, new backup power installations, parts and service activity are expected to remain solid as demand for electrification and 24/7 power grows. Marine repair is also expected to be strong with increasing activity in the Gulf of Mexico and improved commercial markets on the East and West Coast.

For the 2023 full-year, we expect revenue growth in the low-double-digit range for commercial and industrial. While supply chain issues are expected to continue impacting new product and equipment deliveries in distribution and services, we expect 2023 segment revenues will increase by 10% to 20%, compared to 2022. With Commercial and Industrial representing approximately 60% of segment revenues and oil and gas representing the remainder. We expect segment operating margins will be in the mid to high-single-digits for 2023. To conclude, Kirby’s 2022 results showed steady improvement in the base of ongoing challenges. Both our segments performed well during the year delivering improved revenue and operating income and our team executed well on near-term objectives, as well as our long-term strategy.

We exited the year with healthy long-term fundamentals for both our businesses and they’re both very well positioned to continue delivering value. Although we see favorable markets continuing and expect our businesses will provide improved financial results, we are closely monitoring the potential for a recession. Having said that, as we look long-term, we are confident in the strength of our core businesses and we are confident with our long-term strategy. We intend to continue — capitalizing on strong market fundamentals and driving shareholder value creation. Operator, this concludes our prepared remarks. We are now ready to take questions.

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Q&A Session

Operator: We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from Jack Atkins with Stephens. Your line is now open.

Jack Atkins: Okay, great. Good morning. And guys congratulations on being able to really capitalize on the pricing opportunity in the fourth quarter. Nice work there. So I guess, I would love to kind of get your thoughts as we kind of think about the 2023 outlook David and Raj, you may want to tag team this one. But as you sort of think about, sort of, what’s baked in there, can you help us think about are you factoring in any, sort of, mild recession, soft landing, hard landing, kind of help us think about that? And then to what degree do you feel like the market is going to be able to support continued rate renewals in Inland above inflationary cost increases. Can you kind of walk us through both of those items in terms of what’s baked into your outlook for 2023?

David Grzebinski: Yes, sure, Jack. Well, look, I mean, the market fundamentals particularly with Inland are really strong right now. Demand has continued to be strong. We’re seeing refinery utilization as everybody knows is strong. We did see a little pullback in chemicals in the fourth quarter, but it — that started to come back again in the first quarter, but not enough to impact kind of the demand picture. So the demand picture is still very strong on the the supply picture is even better. Nobody’s really building any new equipment of substance. And because prices are high, rates aren’t anywhere close to justifying new construction. But then there’s a big maintenance bubble that’s hitting the entire Inland industry for the next two years.

And it’s really about — there’s a five-year shipyard major process and it’s about one, most of the barges were built or a good portion of them were built a number of years ago. So the industry is going to hit pretty heavy maintenance schedule in €˜23 and €˜24. So that’s actually going to help barge availability remained really tight. So when we look at the outlook for Inland, it’s very strong. It’s about as strong as we’ve ever seen it in terms of supply and demand balance. So that’s a long way of saying, I think the rate environment is going to increase and continue it needs to, by the way, if we’re ever going to get to rates that justify replacement capacity. That said, as we look through €˜23, we didn’t factor in a big recession at all.

We think as we look at the demand for our products, most of it should continue even with a mild recession. That said, if we get a sharp down recession that could impact us. We did not factor that into our guidance. We think we’ll — to use a phrase power through this potential economic weakness. And it’s really all about our supply and demand position. It’s about as strong as we’ve seen, Jack.

Jack Atkins: Okay, David. That’s really helpful. Thank you for that. And I guess maybe, kind of, shifting gears, Raj, I’d like to kind of dig into the cash flow and the CapEx comment for a moment. Can you maybe walk us through why you all are not comfortable providing a CapEx outlook for 2023 at this time? And maybe if it’s possible to kind of give a range? I think folks are trying to — you guys are generating very strong free cash flow. To me that’s a very important part of the valuation case around the stock. Any sort of help you can give us there in terms of what’s going on from a CapEx perspective?

Raj Kumar: Yes, Jack, good morning. Yes, thank you. Yes, you’re absolutely right. We generate very strong free cash flows, but David mentioned the maintenance days that we’re going to have to deal with, it’s an industry-wide phenomenon and we’re seeing — the shipyards that we’re seeing is across the board, it’s both for Inland as well as offshore, right? Inland loan is going up like 20% to 25%. So we’re dealing with this situation right now. We’re dealing with also the supply chain issues. We’ve also impacted some of us CapEx spend, as well as whatever other inflationary pressures that we’re seeing. So right now, there are a lot of puts and takes. The team is penciling it out, I think we should be in a position to give you better CapEx number, more meaningful CapEx number very soon. We should be able to — be able to do that. But right now, we’re not in a position to provide a real CapEx number.

David Grzebinski: Yes. I think, Jack, just to add to that. Look, the cash from operations is going to be strong. Obviously, we’ve got maintenance CapEx cycle here that we’re still working through. But I would just tell you in terms of deployment of free cash flow. Obviously, you saw the share repurchase authorization we’re pretty excited about that. As you look at opportunities, kind of, the best parts company go by right now is Kirby. So we’re pretty excited about it. And we’ll have updates as we progress through the first quarter.

Jack Atkins: And just to follow-up on that really briefly though, I mean, is there any reason why you still wouldn’t be in a position to generate very healthy free cash flow in 2023 even though there’s still a little bit of uncertainty around what the CapEx should be. There’s not a scenario where you would not be of strong free cash flow generator this year. Is that correct?

David Grzebinski: Right. Yes, we think we’ll have good free cash flow.

Raj Kumar: Yes, I think that’s a fair statement, Jack.

Jack Atkins: Okay, okay. Thank you again for the time guys. Really appreciate it.

Operator: Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Nathan Ho: Great. This is Nathan Ho dialing in for Ken Hoexter. Great quarter guys. Just on Dave’s comments on strong inflationary — on the inflationary pressures coming off a little bit on the Inland side. We’re just recalling back to your November update where some of the cost items were up 70% and above. Just wanted to see how the management team sees cost turning into 2023? And with this new backdrop of normalizing commodity costs, how does that affect the exit rates of 20% Inland margins for 2023?