KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Don Kimble: Good. And I will offer a couple of quick comments, but turn it over to Clark because Clark is to be the one that’s here to deal with that going forward. And I won’t be around. So, will go ahead and pass the baton from that perspective. One thing I want to highlight, though, Scott, is as we take a look, for example, you mentioned in the first quarter of €˜23. Keep in mind, there are some things that impact the first quarter relative to the fourth quarter that are more seasonal. Day count-related issues cost about $20 million from where the fourth quarter is to the first quarter. We also typically see fee income drop from the fourth quarter to first quarter, given some of the refinance activity on the loan side. And so, we would see the first quarter traditionally being the low point for both, our net interest income and net interest margin and would expect to see growth from there.

And Clark has been spending a lot of time taking a look at strategies as far as the swaps and treasury. So Clark, why don’t you take it from there as far as other insights?

Clark Khayat: Sure. Just to try to address your question directly, Scott. I think really, the majority of the value is going to come in €˜24. If you think about what’s coming off in swaps and treasuries in €˜23, that number is about $7 billion to $7.5 billion. It’s more like $15 billion and $24 billion. So think about that kind of two-thirds, one-third almost ratio. I’d say, of the number we’ve shared, which is, again, just to remind you, kind of taking all $29 billion of swaps and $9 billion of treasuries and spot pricing them, again, I think you’d see about a third of that benefit in the €˜23 exit run rate. So, the beginnings of some steepness in that NIM and then more of that pulling through in €˜24 as you’d see again, the majority of that maybe two-third or three quarters of that value starting to come through by the end of €˜24.

Scott Siefers: Okay. Perfect. Thank you. And I guess out of curiosity, I’m a little surprised at how well the estimate kind of held in $1.1 billion versus — I think you were saying $1.2 billion last quarter, just given all the changes in the way the curve has behaved. What does it take to really move that number one way or another? Is that sort of a $1 billion plus kind of a pretty sturdy number almost regardless of the way things behave?

Don Kimble: Yes. I’d say the biggest impact there is the movement in the two-year end of the curve. And what we saw was the longer end rates moved a lot more significantly than two-year point.

Scott Siefers: Okay. All right. Perfect. Thank you all very much. And Don, best wishes.

Don Kimble: Thanks so much.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Mike Mayo: You guys see financing to a wholesale company from both the lending side and the capital market side. And one topic during this earnings season is the capital market conditions are a lot tougher whereas the lending conditions are not that much tougher. So, when do you think these will converge? In other words, the pricing in capital markets is much more difficult than the pricing in the lending markets? Are you seeing any firming up or not?

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