KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 9 of 10

And those are obviously relative to deposit costs generally higher. So that will provide a little bit of relief against the trends that you’re talking about. So I would focus more on what do we think the core business is doing from a performance standpoint, which we would view without those swaps and treasuries. We did say, at or near the bottom on NII. I feel good about that, again, assuming the forward curve. The one hesitation I have on that, honestly, Ebrahim, is first quarter, as you know has one fewer day, which has some impact, and always had seasonality in deposit balances. So if you go back a decade other than 2021, which was an anomaly for pandemic-related reasons, we’ve always been down kind of 1% to 3% on deposit balances in the first quarter.

So those are the components we’re working through and we’ll have a cleaner view on ’24 when we guide on the fourth quarter call.

Ebrahim Poonawala: That’s helpful. All I’m trying to get to is if you’re at 920 million in the fourth quarter, the roll off should take that 900 million to 1.1 billion something in that vicinity. And I’m just trying to think what would be the mitigations to get into a 1.1 billion quarterly NII by the end of next year, but that was good color. Thank you. That’s all I have.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Bill Carcache from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Bill Carcache: Thank you. Good morning, Chris and Clark. I wanted to follow up on the points you’ve made around the NII opportunity from repricing. There’s a debate around the possibility that some of the upside from the repricing of the swaps and the securities could be offset by the need to further reduce RWA levels beyond that $10 billion level that you’ve highlighted. And I think you’ve talked around some of the surrounding points, but maybe if you could speak to that specifically, that’d be helpful?

Clark Khayat: Yes. So maybe just to clarify so that we’re all talking about the same thing, that Page 9 I believe which we’ve shared a few quarters in a row now, just to make sure, that is focused on specifically the impact from the treasuries and the swaps. So as we’ve said before, there are other components when rates go up and that improves. There are obviously funding pressures as well that come in and conversely when rates come down and these numbers look a little lower, there’s funding pressure relief, so just want to make sure that we are isolating the thing that we’re talking about. As it relates to this pool, Bill, this is obviously hedging a portion of the loan book and not all of the loan book. So even if we reduce loans, we expect we would see the benefits here. But there are obviously NII pressures if we were to continue to reduce the loan book beyond what we’ve talked about. Does that answer your question?

Bill Carcache: Understood. That is helpful. If I may ask separately, I wanted to ask if you have a — feel like you have a good handle on key customers that had put on swaps when we were still in a low rate environment and are now going to be facing pressure from rates resetting higher? Is there any color that you can give on that dynamic? I know that credit metrics are very good. But I guess any color on that dynamic across your commercial portfolio? And to the extent that you feel that’s contemplated in the allowance that would be great?

Chris Gorman: So there’s no — it’s Chris. There’s no question. One of the things that we are so focused on and this gets back to the answer that I gave around criticized — the increase in criticized loans, we are looking at any customers that are exposed to rate increases, however, they are so exposed. And so because we have the primary relationship, we know a lot about these customers. And to the extent we have visibility on that, yes, we are looking at that. And yes, it’s factored into our numbers.

Page 9 of 10